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Fredrik Löjdquist Profile picture
@FLojdquist
Dec 5 • 10 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
1. To secure Ukrainian future existence as a sovereign state 3 things are needed: EU-membership, recovery & reconstruction and security, to win the war (territorial integrity & sovereignity) & to win the peace. Can only be acheived with Western support.
2. As 🇪🇺-🇺🇦 membership negociations start, the issue on long-term security guarantees for 🇺🇦, i e for Ukraine to win the peace, is the elephant in the room.
3. Four scenarios for security guarantees: 1. NATO-membership, 2. EU-security guarantees, 3. sufficient 🇺🇦 defence & deterrence capabilities (which at the end of the day means nuclear), 4. no guarantees = end of 🇺🇦.
4. Ergo: the real alternative for making 🇺🇦 🇪🇺-membership possible is NATO-membership or 🇪🇺 turning into a security union. 🇷🇺 would test 🇪🇺 deterrence and defence credibility. If EU fails, that would risk the whole 🇪🇺.
5. There is no status quo ante to return to. No stabile equilibrium to be established without 🇺🇦 sovereignity and Euro-Atlantic integration. Grey zones and ”cordon sanitaire” between West & Russia is not a solution, but the problem.
6. Allowing 🇷🇺 to harvest fruits of its aggression & nuclear blackmail will not lead to peace or stability, it will be escalatory. West’s policy for the last 20 years, to view 🇷🇺’s neighbours to be able to defend themselves as escalatory/provocative has proven to be the opposite
7. To ”not provoke” 🇷🇺 has proven to not be de-escalatory but escalatory, enabling Feb 24th 2024. EU and NATO will therefore need to have credible, coherent and long-term 🇺🇦 and 🇷🇺 strategies. Zeitenwende needs to be internalized & operationalized. Not yet the case.
8. Given 🇷🇺’s intentions and war aims, there are no negociations or a ”deal” - that would allow 🇷🇺 to harvest fruits of its aggression & compromise 🇺🇦’s sovereignity & terrotorial integrity - which would lead to peace and stability.
9. Either 🇪🇺 will stabilise eastwards & be destabilised from the east. With or without 🇺🇸 support, however, Europe can support 🇺🇦 militarily & economically. It will cost, but the alternatives will be more costly in terms of security and money. It’s an investment in our security
10. Gloomy perspectives? There is also hope: integrating 🇺🇦 (& 🇲🇩 & 🇬🇪) into 🇪🇺 would be writing the second chapter in the book of the vision of a Europe whole, free & at peace, of the 1989/91 freedom revolution. A European renaissance in short. Politics needs hope & vision.

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More from @FLojdquist

Fredrik Löjdquist Profile picture
Oct 20, 2022
1/8 Quite an upsurge in the Western discourse on risk of Russian nuclear escalation over the last weeks. Not sure if this is related to any real change in Russian posture or an effect of self-amplifying resonance in our own echo chambers. Anyway it has reached the policy makers.
2/8 This may be a way of Russia exercizing reflexive control, i e framing the way how Western politicians and security establishments conduct our discussion and decision making re Russia to Russia’s advantage = self-deterrence, weakening support to Ukraine and creating fear.
3/8 Clearly, the threat of using nuclear weapons is something different than using nuclear weapons. While the threat clearly is a useful tool for the Kremlin, it is hard to see that use of nuclear weapons would bring any benefits to the Kremlin.
Read 8 tweets
Fredrik Löjdquist Profile picture
Feb 21, 2022
1. Extraordinary display of brinkmanship from the Kremlin over the last days, escalating every day, with new level reached at today's meeting of the Russian National Security Council, but not yet crossing the border triggering sanctions.
2. But difficult too see that recognition of "DNR/LNR" would be but a step in the escalatory ladder. In itself it wouldn't achieve much from Russian POV. Also testing Western reactions. Would such a move be enough to trigger sanctions?
3. Most likely designed to create confusion & disunity in the western camp on what the triggers would be, and invite further diplomatic initiatives from the West, trying to pacify the Kremlin (with possible concessions).
Read 5 tweets
Fredrik Löjdquist Profile picture
Feb 15, 2022
1.A thread on where we are in the Russia crisis. We don’t know what will happen next. Either it will be a Russian military escalation against Ukraine in the next weeks, or not. There are rational arguments for either way from a Russian POV.
2. Clear risk that absence of escalation will be misinterpreted as de-escalation, it is not. Russia's long-term strategic goals remain the same: a) political control over Ukraine & establishing a zone of influence around it, with less than fully sovereign countries
3. b) shift in military balance in Europe, i e weakened USA & NATO and strengthened Russia, leaving Eastern parts of Europe indefensible c) new security order in Europe, away from Helsinki & Paris twrds an order where military might, not right, sets the parameters & has final say
Read 19 tweets
Fredrik Löjdquist Profile picture
Jan 18, 2022
1. A thread to summarize elements in the current crisis for European caused by Russia, the worst since the cold war. Last week’s meetings (bilat US-Russia, NATO-Russia Council & OSCE) have not lead to any de-escalation from Russia, neither militarily nor in political posturing
2. We are now on hold as Moscow evaluates its options and waits for written answers from Washington and NATO before the end of this week. These answers will not satisfy Russia’s maximalist ultimatums as laid out in December.
3. We are in a dynamic situation, where Russia’s next steps will be at least partly informed by Western responses and strategic signaling (although decisions may already have been taken).
Read 27 tweets
Fredrik Löjdquist Profile picture
Apr 13, 2021
1. Highly laudable and interesting discussion
@AtlanticCouncil on a pressing topic. Arguments are met by argumnents, as it should be. Nevertheless, some reflections:
2. The future Russia and Eastern Europe policy of the Biden administration will have consequences beyond the US and the region itself, as will how the driving forces behind such a policy are articulated and defined - "values vs interests".
3. However, I would argue that the "values vs interest"-dichotomy is a false one. Upholding the normative global rules-based order in general and the #Europeansecurityorder in particular is a critical value and hard security interest.
Read 13 tweets
Fredrik Löjdquist Profile picture
Apr 6, 2021
1. #Russia’s military build-up along the borders of #Ukraine, statements by Russian government officials, the exorbitant tonality in Russian state TV and other escalatory actions are reasons for real concern for European security. #OSCE2021SWE
2. Regardless of the intention/s (there might be several) behind this, it is a form of strategic communication, signaling – to Kyiv, the Biden administration, the EU and N4-capitals Berlin and Paris...
3. ...to test reactions and to state that managing, not to speak about solving, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can only be made on terms acceptable to the Kremlin.
Read 11 tweets

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