1. To secure Ukrainian future existence as a sovereign state 3 things are needed: EU-membership, recovery & reconstruction and security, to win the war (territorial integrity & sovereignity) & to win the peace. Can only be acheived with Western support. 2. As 🇪🇺-🇺🇦 membership negociations start, the issue on long-term security guarantees for 🇺🇦, i e for Ukraine to win the peace, is the elephant in the room.

1/8 Quite an upsurge in the Western discourse on risk of Russian nuclear escalation over the last weeks. Not sure if this is related to any real change in Russian posture or an effect of self-amplifying resonance in our own echo chambers. Anyway it has reached the policy makers. 2/8 This may be a way of Russia exercizing reflexive control, i e framing the way how Western politicians and security establishments conduct our discussion and decision making re Russia to Russia’s advantage = self-deterrence, weakening support to Ukraine and creating fear.

1. Extraordinary display of brinkmanship from the Kremlin over the last days, escalating every day, with new level reached at today's meeting of the Russian National Security Council, but not yet crossing the border triggering sanctions. 2. But difficult too see that recognition of "DNR/LNR" would be but a step in the escalatory ladder. In itself it wouldn't achieve much from Russian POV. Also testing Western reactions. Would such a move be enough to trigger sanctions?

1.A thread on where we are in the Russia crisis. We don’t know what will happen next. Either it will be a Russian military escalation against Ukraine in the next weeks, or not. There are rational arguments for either way from a Russian POV. 2. Clear risk that absence of escalation will be misinterpreted as de-escalation, it is not. Russia's long-term strategic goals remain the same: a) political control over Ukraine & establishing a zone of influence around it, with less than fully sovereign countries

1. A thread to summarize elements in the current crisis for European caused by Russia, the worst since the cold war. Last week’s meetings (bilat US-Russia, NATO-Russia Council & OSCE) have not lead to any de-escalation from Russia, neither militarily nor in political posturing 2. We are now on hold as Moscow evaluates its options and waits for written answers from Washington and NATO before the end of this week. These answers will not satisfy Russia’s maximalist ultimatums as laid out in December.

1. Highly laudable and interesting discussion
@AtlanticCouncil on a pressing topic. Arguments are met by argumnents, as it should be. Nevertheless, some reflections:

https://twitter.com/AtlanticCouncil/status/1379421293372698624

2. The future Russia and Eastern Europe policy of the Biden administration will have consequences beyond the US and the region itself, as will how the driving forces behind such a policy are articulated and defined - "values vs interests".

1. #Russia’s military build-up along the borders of #Ukraine, statements by Russian government officials, the exorbitant tonality in Russian state TV and other escalatory actions are reasons for real concern for European security. #OSCE2021SWE 2. Regardless of the intention/s (there might be several) behind this, it is a form of strategic communication, signaling – to Kyiv, the Biden administration, the EU and N4-capitals Berlin and Paris...