Thread by @HaidHaid22

🧵🚨 HTS and its governance model:
1- One of my biggest regrets is not turning my PhD thesis on HTS and its governance model into a book. The topic remains critical for understanding how HTS has reached its current position and how it will likely act moving forward.

2- My research explored why HTS succeeded while similar groups, including ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates, failed. It analyzed the group's unique evolution, governance strategies, and ability to achieve what others in Syria could not: toppling—and now seems replacing—the regime.

3- The main focus was on how HTS survived and dominated governance structures in its territories. It examined JAN's governance model, the evolution of its strategies, and the approaches used to establish authority, boost capacity, and legitimize its rule.

4- The thesis argues that HTS's success lies in its pragmatism—using a gradual approach and a mixed strategy of patience, coercion, and persuasion. This allowed it to implement objectives slowly, adapting to public reactions to minimize backlash.

5- This explains why HTS's dominance varies across territories. Its mixed strategy helps mitigate negative consequences and avoid alienating local communities, whose support is vital for its survival and influence.

6- HTS's pragmatism also allows it to use flexible tactics to expand authority while managing risks. It assumes that as long as people must choose between HTS and the Syrian regime, they’ll tolerate HTS as the "lesser evil," despite dissatisfaction.

7- This pragmatism has enabled HTS to appear as the better alternative to the regime. Opposition to Assad is so entrenched that people grant HTS more leeway, which has discouraged the group from pursuing meaningful reforms.

8- A key challenge HTS faces now is that with the regime’s collapse, people may no longer afford it the same tolerance they did out of fear of Assad. HTS’s ability to protect them was key to its legitimacy—this dynamic is now shifting.

9- Another challenge is that HTS’s evolving governance model could be overwhelmed by rapid territorial changes and growing responsibilities. Reports about forming a transitional government to replace Assad’s raise serious questions about its capacity.

10- I am currently designing various research projects on HTS’s ability to navigate these challenges domestically and internationally. If you’re interested in collaborating on these issues, feel free to reach out!