Thread by @DrLeeJones

Hugely useful timeline of the Thai-Cambodia border crisis. Makes pretty clear that the whole thing has been instigated by, and most often escalated by, Cambodia, notwithstanding tit-for-tat on the Thai side. Why is this crisis happening, and why now? 🧵 1/14

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1948587538538762530

As many sources say, this is an old dispute going back to the French imposition of the border in colonial times. It has festered and erupted into conflict before, in 2008, when Cambodia tried to get UNESCO recognition for Preah Vihear, a disputed temple. 2/

In 2008 the Thais were the instigators, with elite and middle class nationalist conservatives whipping up a moral panic to bring down a hated government aligned to ousted oligarch Thaksin Shinawatra and his poor/ working class supporters. 3/

This time a similar dynamic has played out, with Thaksin's daughter shunted aside as PM and facing impeachment for trying to de-escalate the conflict, as a phone call with Cambodia's de facto leader Hun Sen (leaked by him) revealed. Now Thailand's responding more robustly. 4/

Why then has Hun Sen picked this moment to initiate and escalate the crisis? It's hard to say, but his predatory regime has increasingly relied on coercion since 2013 as its grip on the populace has waned. Nationalism can rally folks round the flag - and it's working. 5/

Cambodian nationalism is heavily premised on a history of predation and encroachment from Thailand and (especially) Vietnam. Racist anti-Vietnamese xenophobia is rife in Cambodia, animating figures from Pol Pot to contemporary "liberal" opposition leaders. 6/

But Hun Sen and what became his CPP regime were installed by Vietnamese forces that overthrew Pol Pot in 1978. They've generally tried to keep a lid on anti-Vietnamese sentiment. That makes Thailand a safer outlet if you want to stir up nationalist sentiment. 7/

However, the CPP regime seems emboldened even to provoke Vietnam, albeit not militarily (wise, given the Vietnamese have bested even the US) but by proposing to construct a canal that will reroute Cambodian trade currently transiting Vietnam. 8/en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funan_Tec…

The canal is Chinese-backed, like most megaprojects in Cambodia. Moreover, Cambodia's Ream naval base seems to host a permanent Chinese presence, much to the alarm of Vietnam, where China is a historical enemy and viewed with huge suspicion. 10/amti.csis.org/a-tale-of-two-…

Chinese support is arguably emboldening Hun Sen to assert his view of Cambodian national interests against neighbouring states - even if his provocative behaviour almost certainly isn't what China wants to see. China has been the CPP's key external backer since 2000. 11/

Chinese military aid & training have been important to develop key units tasked with CPP regime security, like the PM's bodyguard, some of which have been deployed near the Thai border. More generally, Chinese investments and infrastructure projects have enriched the regime. 12/

The land-grabbing, predation and criminality attending many Chinese projects has, contrarily, helped alienate mass support from the CPP, especially in rural areas. Ironically that incentivises the regime to engage in nationalist tub-thumping to rally support. 13/

So, in essence, two regimes with fundamental structural weaknesses, both with weak democratic legitimation, are engaged in a dangerous face-off that has little to do with the the land being disputed and much to do with their miserable internal politics. 14/14

PS (since this thread is going viral): people retweeting this, consider the content carefully. On both sides your nationalist outrage is being manipulated by elites who do not have your best interests at heart. Peace is in the true interests of both nations.