(((Tendar))) Profile picture
Nov 23 1 tweets 2 min read Read on X
It appears that somebody instructed Marco Rubio to go along with the story unfolding and it looks to me that this resulted from the following chain of events. I will lay it out here:

Everything points to the direction that Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev were hammering out this 28 point surrender paper, without informing the US Secretary of State or the Ukrainian government. It contains primarily Russian wishes and unrealistic Russian demands, but Witkoff basically took them over in the list.

Kirill was then leaking this Russian wishlist to Axios, well-knowing what it is. Witkoff basically confirmed.

The intent followed two objectives. First, maximalist wishlist of the Russian should be engraved cognitively in media sphere for everyone before any pushback occurred. Two, it should test the US government how it would react to the backlash which will inevitably follow.

Rubio unaware of the contents of the talks was then confronted by a bipartisan group of US Senators and gave them his answer, which at this moment was truthful.

The senators then went public quoting Rubio: “It is not our recommendation, it is not our peace plan.”

At this point the US officials in the Trump administration must have started to realize that something is going wrong. As intended the leak totally blind-sided them. They completely lost control of the situation, but grudgingly decided to go along with it. Rubio was then compelled to go public and claim that it was indeed the plan, while watering down that it yet just the Russian side, with some previous input from Ukrainian side.

This is my assumption based on facts I see so far.

This whole episode reveals that the current US negotiating team is completely out of its depth and that people involved in this „negotiations“ are absolute amateurs to say the least. Ukraine is well advised to push back hard and not leave any doubts that this surrender paper is dead in the water by countering it with a new peace proposal.Image

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More from @Tendar

Mar 1
After watching the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting in whole, I’m feeling prepared to comment on it in a proper way.

Long thread incoming:

(1/7)
While the discussion was weirdly enough quite long for a press conference, it was rather civil. It was Vance‘s interjection which didn’t fit at all to the overall conversation and came almost out of the blue, crashing the situation for no good reason, especially with his weird „you are not thankful enough“ BS. The peak was when President Zelenskyy calmly asked him about the problems in Ukraine, which Vance basically responded with that he watched it on TV. This was the final dead giveaway of his manufactured outrage. He was easily outsmarted by President Zelenskyy, got louder and angrier, and at this point only repeated himself, until Trump moved in and completed that disaster.
(2/7)
For those saying that President Zelenskyy just should have been silent, I disagree with for a simple reason. Ukraine did this in the past more than once. This was about the vital question of security guarantees. This key component as seen in Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 (and btw. even in the Astana agreement in reference to Syria) was missing in all previous failed attempts, and directly contributed in the lack of achieving even a stable ceasefire, let alone peace. This is not a minor detail or technicality. It is the key feature between lasting ceasefire or not. Russia only responds to force and no deal will ever be sufficient in deterring Russia. The pile of failed deals with Russia is only exceeded by the piles of bodies being victim of them. Only force and credible deterrent will ensure meta-stable conditions. You cannot blank it out or postpone it. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Nov 19, 2024
On February 24, 2022, exactly 1000 days ago Russia launched the full-scale war against Ukraine, a war which in fact started in February 2014 with the occupation and annexation of Crimea. Looking back, let is review what strategic goals Russia has (not) achieved. I summarized 10 objectives which were laid out during but also during the full scale war.

Thread:Image
Objective 1: Conquering Kyiv

The takeover of Gostomel airport near Kyiv was crucial for a swift takeover of Ukraine's capital and by extension the country altogether. The conscripts defending the airport, however, delayed the Russian advance of Russian VDV paratroopers long enough and blocked the runway so that no Russian reinforcements could arrive on time.

Ukrainian elite formations could establish defense perimeters around the Ukrainian capital and eventually drove the invasion back. During this process, massive amounts of Russian equipment have been taken, which will play a crucial role for the coming months and years.

Result: Decisive Russian failure
Objective 2: Toppling or at least expelling the Ukrainian government and installing a puppet regime.

The takeover of Kyiv aimed to install a puppet regime similar to Belarus. It supposed to be headed by Medvedchuk. Due to the failed takeover of Kyiv but also unwillingness of the Ukrainian government to give up the capital and especially the people on the streets, the Ukrainian government and statehood has remained intact.

Result: Decisive Russian failure
Read 11 tweets
Nov 17, 2024
Finland, a country with a long border with Russia and in striking distance to crucial Russian bases such as Murmansk naval port, Olenya air base or even Sankt Petersburg, joint NATO in 2023, but no Russian missiles or drones hit the country when it announced that it wants to join the alliance. (1/5)Image
Finland is the living proof for several facts:

1. Russia is not threatened by NATO. Moscow itself claimed it has "no problems Finland being NATO member"

2. If you have a strong military, Russia is deterred

3. Russia never honor treaties, only strength

4. Shared security (NATO) is essential

(2/5)
Russian excuses why they attack nations are redundant and lies. It is not about them. It is about imperial Russia. Russia is the bully which is always jealous and brutal. It is an entity where people leave in droves, where cities are decaying and life span is short. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Nov 22, 2023
Putin is the biggest loser of the last 10 years and here is my list of reasons why. Let me elaborate:

1.) 2013/2014 Putin tried to install Janukovic as a puppet dictator in Ukraine, similar to Lukashenko in Belarus. His scheme fell apart and Janukovic was fleeing shortly later.

Putin failed.
2.) 2014 Putin tried to take the Donbas and to expel the Ukrainian army by using Russian troops disguised as rebels. The Ukrainian army came back, destroyed most of those elements and established a contact line.

Putin failed.
3.) During the Minsk 1/2 talks, Putin tried to carve the eastern regions out from the Ukrainian state. Ukrainians resisted that trap.

Putin failed.
Read 14 tweets
Apr 18, 2023
My opinion regarding this clip:

This isn’t Putin and the buildings which have been already geolocated are not the base. It is a decoy, the man and the base.
#Kherson #Ukraine

The Russian army is one of the dumbest armies in the world, but even they wouldn't allow to have taken pictures that way. This very distinct water tower can be easily concealed when recording in a different angle.

They wanted us to geolocate this location. Image
What's more interesting is the effort Russians have put to mask that room. I think this is a windowless storage room. Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 27, 2023
You might have never heard of cities called "Khaishenvai", "Boli" or "Shuangchenzi" as well as the island of "Quedao", because that are the official names according the Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources for Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Ussuriysk and Sakhalin, "newly" introduced.
I cannot say that I'm surprised, aside that it happens a earlier.

When you look into (Chinese) history you will find the chapter of "Unequal Treaties" where parts of China were carved out and integrated into imperial powers, e.g. Britain, Germany, France, Japan and...Russia.
All imperial powers have left China (feudal borders) some time ago - Portugal in Macao was the last - except for one:

Russia

Of course you will not find any discussion regarding this in China, for political reasons, yet, but the sentiment never disappeared.
Read 6 tweets

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