after 5 years of doing this TA stuff as an "influencer" in crypto, I've finally started to learn my place in the rank.

a thread, with a short story. 🧵 /2

I had a chance to talk with a professional IT guy the other day, just sittin on the front porch, while havin an ice cold tranny beer (BL).

During our convo, this question was brought up to me:

"how do you do this? Like, how do you afford this stuff? like are you a scammer?

TA beats the news A LOT... as a T.A guy, I talk about this, to no avail most of the times. we will use the RECENT news on Regal cinemas potential bankruptcy as an example, and a thread to explain what i mean 🙏

1/ 🧵👇 2/
let's start with REGAL cinema. News TODAY of a - potential - bankruptcy "cause the stocks to dump". I chose to show you something else... here's REGALs parent group CINEWORLD. as you see, a weekly sell (8/21ema) on 6/21/21...thats over a year ago (not today).

some $BTC #Bitcoin historical data for you , in thread form: 🧵👇

1/ 2/

using a weekly HTF (High time frame) chart, first we see a historic 9+ year trend that started all the way back in April of 2013. MOST of you weren't in #crypto then (I wasn't) , but we use historical data to show us precedent. History is cyclical.

1/
2008 BANKS with housing vs 2022 Crypto exhanges with YOUR ASSETS.

there are some rather eerie similarities here, and I think It's worth pointing out.

I've said it 1000 times if I have said it one...Mistakes are OK, if you learn .

they didn't learn

🧵👇 2/
as many know, the 2008 Real estate mess happened thanks to some SUPER selfish thinking, EXTREMELY degenerate bets, and some RATHER OVERALL lack of risk management

sound familiar? I'm Not talking about 3AC, Celcius, or Voyager...YET

simply put, they had "money in the bank"

With all the current talk about "DCA during this bear market into your favorite blue chip" , I thought it may be time to talk about the mistake that is made by nearly EVERY influencer. BUYING DOWNTRENDS.

A thread discussing uptrends/downtrends, and when to "DCA" . $BTC🧵👇 2/

in order to understand WHEN to buy, you must first know which direction the asset is going in...UP or DOWN. we ONLY buy uptrends...why? Well, if you buy downtrends, you are LIKELY to lose money immediatley, since the value is going down nearly daily. $BTC is down 70% 👇

1/
Lets clear up some misconceptions about Technical Analysis, or "charts". Far too often people think reading the chart is for "day trading" and I'm often told "im not interested in day trading, I'm an investor". lets go over how you can invest BETTER for 5 mins a day 🧵👇 2/
T.A. is nothing more than risk reduction...we take a BROAD TARGET, reduce it down to a smaller target, and make a better decision on our buys and sells because of that. You SAVE as much money AS YOU MAKE using T.A. How is that possible? Let's explain in picture form. 👇

1/
There are some common misconceptions that come with being a "chart guy" . What does that even mean? How does "astrology for men" (common insult i get) actually tell you whats happening behind the scenes? Let's have a little lesson on what being a Technical Analyst means .🧵👇 2/
First and foremost, charts are the core of what I do. I WILL NOT buy anything until the chart says so. I GENERALLY START ON THE MONTH CHARTS. that's right folks...long term first. Wanna "HODL" a bag? Well, the monthly shows us - general direction -. example below is $ETH

1/
T.A. learning time! Sorry for the wait, have a good bit of family stuff happening

Today, we go over the MACD how it works and how to use it! "Moving average convergence - divergence "(MACD) is what the acronym stands for. This is a LAGGING Indicator. What's that mean?🧵👇 2/
As a LAGGING indicator, this is meant to WORK WITH a leading indicator (8/21EMA), not by itself. There are a few parts, all easy to understand. The 2 lines are moving averages, one slow (orange) and one fast (blue). The orange is the "trigger" line. Blue is the "crosser"

1/
After the hard Capitulation from $BTC and others recently, you're seeing a relief bounce as bears take profits and sip Margaritas with their recent profits. BEWARE - not out of the woods here, as a CME GAP is at $35k right with the 21EMA and the .50 fib. explanation time 🧵👇 2/
what is "capitulation"? well, think of it as everyone piling on and kicking a dead horse...in this case, the crypto market. A HARD fall with no relief is the best way to put it. these happen sometimes, and usually a relief bounce follows when the bears are satisfied with $ .

T.A. learning time! Why "buying the dip" is a TERRIBLE strategy MOST of the time , in crypto.

First, this applies to CRYPTO, and not traditional equities. Why? Quite simply, historically speaking crypto bull runs are rather quick, with longer bear cycles. EXAMPLE $XLM 🧵👇1/ the term "buy the dip" applies to "DCA" (dollar cost averaging), or buying when price goes down WITHOUT selling, accumulating , and bringing down your - average buy in price - . 1 problem... you only lose capital this way, 76% of the time as shown below . we can do better. 2/

T.A. learning time! 8/21EMA strategy part 2!

Zfter yesterday's thread, I felt it would be prudent to compound a bit on the 8/21 ema strategy. The 4 basic rules set the standard, however it can be used a bit differently for different market scenarios. Still using $ADA . 🧵👇 1/ The screenshot below shows a segment of the 2021 upward bull run. This first example is buring a BULLISH SENTIMENT. We will discuss a bearish sentiment in a few moments. Here you see the price break the 8ema 2 times consecutively (rule 1 BUY). However, no 8/21cross yet 🚨. 2/

T.A. learning time! 8/21 EMA strategy!

The 8/21EMA strategy is simple and effective as a leading indicator. It can be an extremely useful tool when used correctly, but can be just as easily uses incorrectly.

I'll be using ADA as an example here, but any asset will work. 🧵👇1/ The green line you see is the 8EMA and the purple line you see is the 21 EMA. what is an ema? It means exponential moving average, or - instead of just counting the closings 8 times and adding them up (sma) - it gives a little weight to the previous opening. This makes it 2/