Concerned of Bristol Profile picture
Collating info on SARS-CoV-2 with a particular focus on education: Please pass on useful links from reputable sources. Knowledge is power.
30 Nov
With @imperialcollege React 7a results there is a question that desperately needs asking.

Why did the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 fall in every age group apart from the two including school children?


I remember when the lie was:

-children don't catch #COVID
-children only catch it from adults
-children don't transmit it to each other.

@CMO_England this is really starting to look like solid evidence the above were lies.

Children started with the highest prevalence & are the only groups with more cases after #lockdown2

If I were:


I would be furious that all the sacrifices were squandered so @HuwMerriman didn't have to back down
Read 9 tweets
29 Nov
This is not a pop @NicolaSturgeon any more than @BorisJohnson, but the argument that it's too soon to make comparisons is wearing thin.

1.6M cases (pop. 67.9M)
85.7 deaths/100k

S. Korea
34k cases (pop. 51.6M)
1.0 deaths/100k


The UK has a death toll that is 86 times that of South Korea and 34% f those deaths happened after 1 June 2020.

Date chose as that's when the first lockdown ended.

Well... Started to end...

Comparing and learning could have started well before then - there were definitely lessons to be learned when our death toll stood at around 40x South Korea's.
Read 9 tweets
27 Nov
@KatharineDC Here's an example of why @BBCNews is gaining a reputation for bias

Bias is a subtle tool

Either lazy journalism means the writer missed Y7-11 have the most cases of any age (>2%) or they were trying to create the impression of a problem that is overhyped



Relatively few is wrong

Look at @ONS data: you see only 6th Form - 24 even come close to 2%

NB: These @ONS demographics seem to carry bias too

Why not count all school children?…

Look at the Half Term Dips in Y12 - 24!

Universities don’t have HT…

Perhaps the author tried to convey something else & failed

No idea how you would analyse this, but maybe more isolations do occur in students relative to adults who test positive

But this is a symptom of the problem 👇
Read 8 tweets
26 Nov
Schools or Partying?

On 12/11 coronavirus cases spiked to 33k cases, it remains the only day where over 30k have been reported...

But the partying narrative is part of the agenda to keep schools open 'at all costs'

Please read on, it's going to take c. 10 min to post...


We know .gov have been pushing journalists to infer its was due to pre-lockdown partying

For example @nicktriggle's piece from 16/11, but this appears to be lazy journalism.


If we look at data y swab date, a more worrying picture emerges.

We can clearly see there are TWO days with more than 30k cases.

The first and highest on record is actually 2/11. This is the Monday after #lockdown2 was announced.
Read 14 tweets
27 Oct

.@DogLady2020 I just checked back in on the prediction from 21 days ago & the 7 day average is 200 deaths per day


Third time in a row I have been a bit under (181 yesterday, then we had catch up Monday) but a reasonable prediction for 14/11 is 300 - 400 deaths a day


Previous estimates have been based on the 7 day average of cases reported.

Shifting to 7 day average of cases by swab date gives an expected average of 206 deaths/day today - spookily accurate.

WARNING: We don't know the average yet as swab date lags by c. 4 days

We are on day 57 👆

Looking at another measure - the log of cases reported so far 👇 you can see the orange line (deaths by date of death) is higher than the rolling average reported (blue)

This is because fatalities are rising - but note the last 5 days are unreliable
Read 11 tweets
21 Oct
@adamhamdy It looks very much like schools are being used to drive this by the back door.

A bit more thinking to do about 👇

It shows %age rise in 7 day average across UK but you can clearly see spikes a week after schools went back in different regions, then unis

@adamhamdy 2/n

From last night's press conference @BorisJohnson seems to think we just need to try a bit harder to follow rules

However, since mid-July there have been around 15% extra cases each week

This seems to have jumped to more like 25% as schools returned

@adamhamdy @BorisJohnson 3/n

The large spike at the end encompasses two things:

-case backlog being added
-uni return

BUT we seem to have rebounded to around 25% extra cases each week again (early days)

Importantly, it's unclear how much of the sharp fall is unis dealing with 'their virus'
Read 8 tweets
20 Oct
Two things we learned from @BorisJohnson

1. He doesn't understand how infection numbers reduce

"unis did a great job of getting their virus under control"

If true, they did it by locking students in their halls...



2. He doesn't really get exponential growth.

Apparently the R is only a bit above 1 so it's all okay.

It's around 1.3 to 1.5, higher than the lead into this debacle from mid August on. So numbers not going south yet.




There is a great primer on exponential growth here:

Please watch it.

More importantly, please get friends, journalists and politicians to watch too.

#JonathanVanTam #JVT said deaths baked in for 3 weeks.

You can expect 160-320 on 11/11 😰
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
.@WelshGovernment appears to believe older children higher transmission risk for #COVID19

@educationgovuk guidance last updated 1/10 doesn't mitigate this or aerosol transmission- clear its schools' job to assess


Squeaky bum time for school leaders… ImageImageImage
Because Government #dontmentiontheschools you mightn't have noticed 👆

As any of the people below will remind you, @NAHTnews @ASCL_UK @SchoolGovNet @SchoolGov are responsible for school H&S:


Expand below to compare over 3 weeks

Year 7-11 children consistently 2nd highest group & still on exponential increase, while unis seem to be getting on top of their outbreaks

Now 1% of secondary children infected with #COVID19

@adamhamdy @ToryFibs: herd immunity by backdoor? Image
Read 4 tweets