🧵Seven World Central Kitchen team members killed in Gaza yesterday. @WCKitchen @AneraOrg

What’s the impact? What does it mean for the war in Gaza? @cogatonline @usembassyjlm @USAID @USAIDWBG @lrozen @BarakRavid

A few thoughts: @WCKitchen was new to Gaza. @AneraOrg , an extraordinary US NGO, partnered with them early on so WCK could learn the operating environment. Obviously Gaza is intensely dangerous, but WCK was intent on providing meals.

🧵Here we go, a few words on the new Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa.

The question: can he lead a “revitalized PA” that is ready and capable to take over from Hamas after the Gaza War, help stabilize the West Bank, and envision a meaningful pathway to statehood? It's too early to say. Here’s the rack up.

He is a smart guy, deeply connected with regional and international leaders, donors, and influencers. He is an economist by training - which is perhaps the most useful skill necessary to craft a Palestinian future.

🧵 Two points on Gaza today: (i) Evaluating the impact of airdrops; (ii) Establishing sterile zones for aid at the crossings.

Air Drops

Yesterday, I asked threshold questions for the Biden admin as it weighs high altitude, low altitude & landed distribution of aid in Gaza. The Biden administration has apparently settled on high altitude air drops, which will keep aircraft and crew safe. As noted before, high altitude airdrops will not meaningfully change the trajectory of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

🧵 Here’s a primer on air drops in Gaza.

But first, my bottom line up front: Air drops will not be effective in blunting the humanitarian crises in Gaza. Air drops are inefficient, expensive, dangerous, and only helpful when there are no other delivery options. Air drops are primarily for the Biden administration’s benefit - to paper over a massive policy failure. @lrozen @BarakRavid @AkbarSAhmed @DanielEstrin @ewong

🧵 A few observations regarding Israel’s operation at Al Shifa Hospital. When I was in seat, it was broadly suspected/understood as far back as 2014 that Hamas used the Al Shifa Hospital complex as a command center and base for operations. I didn’t have direct evidence, but it was recognized by both trusted Palestinians and Israelis in my network.

Further, Hamas used ambulances to move its people. This was based on my conversations with the then head of @ICRC.

🧵Take a look at this photo from yesterday’s meeting: The Israelis are leaning in, the Americans are leaning back. Better to negotiate with the Israelis by leaning in as well, being tough, demonstrating strength, negotiating directly and bluntly. I don’t like that Netanyahu rebuffed Blinken on humanitarian pauses. A humanitarian pause is common in wars, and we have already seen multiple limited humanitarian pauses in Gaza when the hostages were released, expatriates exited through Rafah, or aid convoys were shipped.

🧵The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem says that it will start an evacuation of U.S. nationals and their immediate family members by sea on Monday. The evacuation will depart from Haifa, the embassy said, and head for the island of Cyprus, about 170 miles away. @lrozen @APDiploWriter So proud and inspired by our American diplomats.

Obviously there is catastrophic tragedy in the Middle East, and there is increasing risk of a widening war. But, let’s take a moment to thank our American diplomats on the ground.@afsatweets @diplomattitude

[Thread] 1. I grew up in Maryland's First District - rural Carroll County. Carroll is probably more rural and had worse race relations than Queen Anne's County - certainly those many decades ago.

nytimes.com/2021/10/10/us/… 2. In many ways, my life was quintessential - I raised chickens and horses, loved the Orioles, played little league baseball, and mowed too much grass on my Dad's tractor.

Michael, a few questions: (i) Should the Biden administration nominate a career FSO as ambassador to Israel (which historically has been the case) or nominate a political appointee as Ambassador close to the White House? Why?

https://twitter.com/mkoplow/status/1359896556665790469

(ii) Should the Biden administration keep the Trump organization structure where the chief of mission (now based in Jerusalem) covers both Israel and Palestine or should there be a separate Consul General for the Palestinians with a direct and distinct reporting line to DC?

1. [Thread] By my account, the Biden administration has approximately $500 million in the treasury for assistance to the Palestinians. Here is the breakdown: 2. These funds include unspent amounts from FY 2020 and newly appropriated funds in FY 2021. The 2020 funds are my rough estimates - but the figures below reflect the totals for the two years.

1. [Thread] The Biden administration has signaled its return to UNRWA coupled with traditional levels of funding for the relief organization. Here are a few suggestions on how to leverage this money for greatest impact: 2. Since 1950, America has contributed more than $6 billion to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).

1. [Thread] Yemen, surprisingly, has become a top foreign policy priority for the Biden administration in its first weeks. Marib governorate in central Yemen is under the control of the internationally recognized government of Yemen. 2. In addition to its oil fields and its Safer oil refinery, Marib is a key producer of natural gas, supplying the entire country.

The brilliant @Ndawsari gives advice and realistic insight to the Biden Administration about its Yemen policy. This is a must read for policy makers and influencers. Nadwa argues that:

https://twitter.com/Ndawsari/status/1359243734852935681

The administration has to come to terms with the fact that conditions might not be ripe to end the conflict, much less bring about peace.

1. [Thread] It’s snowing in DC, I’m sitting by the fire drinking a cup of Yemen’s finest coffee, Rayya Mill Blend Dark Roast from @almokha, and offer this thread on economic steps to help mitigate the humanitarian crisis and mitigate conflict in Yemen. 2. PRELUDE: There has been substantial commentary on Biden’s policy changes in Yemen. Much of the conversation involves political and diplomatic strategy and the military aspects of the conflict.

1. [THREAD] The changes on US Yemen policy keep coming at us fast. Essentially a forgotten war, Yemen is now a Biden foreign policy priority, at least in these early days. This decision to now reverse the Houthi FTO designation is a mistake. Here's why:

washingtonpost.com/national-secur… 2. Pompeo jammed the Biden administration with the Jan 19th FTO designation of the Houthis, at the behest of the Saudis. I was absolutely opposed to Pompeo’s designation because of the immense humanitarian and economic consequences for the Yemen people.

1. [THREAD] Yemen, Middle East Watchers, NatSec Pros: A few thoughts regarding Biden’s major news regarding the Yemen war in the past few days. 2. Biden visited the State Department - yesterday’s speech was a nod to the career staff and signals that Biden intends to rely heavily on professional expertise. Biden also mentioned USAID (as did Blinken earlier) which affirms the value and mission of the Agency.

1. [Breaking Thread] Summary of the UN Final Report of the UN Experts on #Yemen.

The situation in Yemen has continued to deteriorate, with devastating consequences for the civilian population. Three main factors are contributing to the catastrophe: 2. (a) economic profiteering by all Yemeni parties, affecting human security; (b) continuous and widespread human rights and international humanitarian law violations, with impunity; and (c) escalations in fighting and its impact on civilians, including displacement.

1. [Thread] Yemen is a uniquely complicated war - in reality a series of overlapping wars. The debate typically surrounds the military actions by the Saudi led coalition and the Houthi militia.

reuters.com/article/uk-yem… 2. The other conversation which dominates is the humanitarian crisis - typically the suffering of millions of people trapped in Houthi controlled territory.

1. [Thread] SecState Blinken’s comments re Yemen today at his press conference: 2. Q: In the last couple of months of previous admin, several policies were rolled out or enacted that were contentious. I realize everything is under review, but among those things, which are your priorities to possibly to rescind or rollback.

1. Biden has been the President for a week, Blinken has been SecState for a day. In this short time, the Administration has made two decisions relating to #Yemen. First was the 30 day pause of the Houthi FTO designation.

wsj.com/articles/biden… 2. Now the Biden Administration is reviewing weapon sales to Saudi Arabia and Yemen with an eye to understanding the use of American weapons deployed by the Saudi Led coalition in Yemen.

1. Yemen, Middle East, and NatSec watchers: With the Biden Administration undergoing a review of the FTO designation of the Houthis, I want to highlight some striking contradictions relating to the Yemen war. #thread 2. Many of these contradictions are not reconcilable - which makes Yemen, its humanitarian and economic despair, and the overlapping wars a particularly challenging complex crisis. I caution anyone who thinks there are simple answers, to think twice.