35 yrs in a risk chair | #Freedom maximalist | McGill | Cornell |#btc is an IQ test in risk management| All Fiats are melting ice cubes | #forthekids and FAMILY
Annual interest exp is $400B (at historic low coupons)
Interest coverage ratio is 1X (solid CCC ratio for corps)
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The debt spiral accelerates as new debt is issued at HIGHER coupon.
Ex: $30T in outstanding debt x 3.2% coupon is $1T in annual expense...(an increase of $600B/yr)
This is BEFORE any new deficits and a reduction in revs due to lower capital gains
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Jul 19, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Why #btc could rip…a thread from a shitty trader who has 35 yrs of mistakes.
In any hedging business the “easiest” way to “pretend” you have shorts that offset longs is by shorting an underlying INDEX to offset a long position in a single name.
The crypto hedge space /2
… is no different. Think of all those players who are likely short #btc or own some delta hedge short position.
These positions include: shitcoins vs #btc, equity in miners vs #btc, equity in crypto exchanges vs #btc, equities in Nasdaq vs #btc, mining lenders vs #btc…/3
Apr 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Every reason you would buy the UST30YR right now is twice the reason you should buy #btc. A thread…
The Fed will invoke QE infinity and YCC shielding bonds…
Yes but currency debasement is thus accelerated…therefore #btc over the UST30YR
Mar 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
BINGO square -- the middle star -- (deserves a thread),
But Foss, the market (still) treats it as risk off...
My response... /2
Markets take time to adjust their thinking, but once it happens there is no turning back. For example:
"In 1959, 30 years after the great Crash, an event took place that made absolutely no sense in light of history. Up to the late 1950s, investors had received a
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I have been a professional risk trader for over thirty years. Sitting in a risk chair is real life. It is not some cushy academic chair where theories are espoused. It is managing the savings and pensions of clients, friends and family… /2
— in real time, good markets and bad — and your livelihood and sanity are pressured daily.
In a risk chair you are always looking for cheap insurance. An edge that will protect you and clients in the event of a risk event. I believe bitcoin to be the best insurance product… /3
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