I am most concerned about #climate-induced droughts / food shortages. That is what keeps me up at night. The prospect of these multiplying dramatically within a generation, unless we move fast to prevent, mitigate, adapt, and restore.
BUT: On a recent visit to speak in Amsterdam, I was struck by the growing awareness there of the extreme vulnerability of the city. The high likelihood that significant parts of it will be underwater within a century, possibly much sooner. The sense of melancholic fragility.
BUT:

This year, the Earth will very probably exceed 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial average. Breaching the 1.5 limit, a planetary boundary for the Earth system, IS entering into a new, deadly zone of unsafety. According to highly-reputable @BerkeleyEarth: “Prior to the start of 2023, the likelihood of a 1.5 °C annual average this year was estimated at ~1%.”

berkeleyearth.org/september-2023…

Thanks for this honesty, @climpeter, that the goal of staying below 1.5 is not alive. However, more candour is also needed on the chances of our returning below 1.5, of successfully ‘overshooting’ and returning.
Here is my honest estimation of those chances: minuscule. Why?:

https://twitter.com/LossandDamage/status/1637815003536408578

1. We are currently on course for about 2.8. Which could terminate this civilisation.
2. DAC/CDR faces vast issues: tech issues, cost, resource- & energy- hungriness, political will, safe disposal of CO2, etc
3. Many of the forests currently being planted for offsets will burn.

You've heard the inspiring phrase, "Another world is possible". But it's inaccurate.
The status quo is catastrophe; it simply cannot and will not be sustained.
So: Another world is CERTAIN. The question is: how you'll act to make the coming transformation as good as possible.. This little film continues to grow and grow: we have now passed 350k views across platforms.

Thank you for your support and for all the super-helpful (and praising) comments!
Let's help the world to watch...

It's indefensible for the BBC to keep inviting Julia Hartley-Brewer onto #bbcqt: she's a climate-denier whose only credential is as a Murdoch mouthpiece & reliable clickbait.
They don’t invite flat-earthers on, so why climate-deniers?
The BBC should do much better.
>RT,to agree! Here's me destroying JHB on #BBCQT:

Last Thursday, it was @Aiannucci who did much the same.
But it's not right that her lies & rubbish keep getting aired. Just because it'd be easy to destroy flat-earthers would not be a good reason to invite them on!

PLEASE READ. NOTHING SURPASSES THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS:
This is the draft Cop26 agreement: unfccc.int/sites/default/…
It has actually taken my breath away. I was expecting something pretty dire. I’ve been warning for months that it would be pretty dire. But this! Even I am shocked. This is stunningly, pitifully, >entirely< inadequate to the terrifying moment of emergency in which our species finds itself.
Within days, Cop26 will have failed us. This astonishingly minimal piece of paper makes that very, very clear.
This is a moment that must live in history.

Whether you are a Conservative or not, you can see it’s time to eject this serial liar from Downing Street. Now that it’s been revealed he literally called for #BodiesPiledHigh in the streets rather than protecting us.
A short thread on how to get him out. Turns out it’s easy: Conservative high command doesn’t care about lies nor even about bodies. You have to speak to them in the only language they understand: votes. theguardian.com/commentisfree/… If the Conservative Party gets a drubbing in the nationwide elections on May 6, they will fire Johnson.

It’s nothing less than disgusting that Big Pharma has resisted the desire of S. Africa, India, & 100 other poor countries to permit the production of generic vaccines during this global emergency, the only way in which they could afford to vaccinate their populations soon.
PseRT Allowing generic vaccine production is the only way in which the world can attain any modicum of safety with regard to the #coronavirus, by attaining global herd immunity. So long as this is not attained, then the risk of destructive new variants emerging remains significant.

In the morning papers review on #R4Today, Justin Webb breathlessly relays this news, from the Sun, that he says strikes a “more positive note” than other Covid-related news: traffic is virtually back to normal, post-lockdown.
IN WHAT UNIVERSE IS THIS POSITIVE NEWS?
[Thread 1/n] It is absolutely gut-wrenching to hear the nation’s supposedly top quality news programme appearing to back, without any further comment/balance, the news that we’ve wasted the Covid pause; that air pollution will be getting back to ‘normal’, killing tens of thousands yearly.
2/n

Brexit formally occurred on Jan 31. People had voted for it to have borders with integrity, even if there was an economic cost. The Con Govt immediately had an opportunity to put this into practice: it actually made sense to tightly regulate our borders, with #coronavirusUK. 1/ So what happened after Jan 31? The Cons moved immediately in the OPPOSITE direction. They refused adamantly to impose any border controls, and let flight after flight after flight in, carrying #coronavirus into the UK. Johnson gave this speech on Feb 3: gov.uk/government/spe…

24 lessons from this pandemic.

1) This corona crisis is a global experience of lived emergency.

medium.com/@rupertjread/2… 2) There is an equality in this: the equality of shared vulnerability.