1/ By now most Hoosier policymakers have read the excellent, and rightfully scary population forecast by @IUibrc. I have a few observations that should be important to the @indgop and @InDemocrats and their candidates for office.

ibrc.indiana.edu/ibr/2024/summe… 2/ Demographic forecasts of the type done by Matt Kinghorn are stunningly accurate. His work has been very good for a long time. The one place these types of forecasts tend to err over a long period of time are at the margins of rural areas.

1/ A few graphics for Baby Boomers who have kids home over the holidays.

I start with mortgage rates . . . 2/ The time at work it takes to buy a gallon of gas (it doesn't include increased fuel efficiency).

1/ I spoke to the Health Care Cost Oversight Task Force last night. This is a quick excerpt of what I said. Parts of it were admirably covered by the @INCapChronicle

indianacapitalchronicle.com/2023/08/24/leg… 2/

1/ Quick thread on Indiana state budget. The first thing to notice is that under basic growth assumptions (GDP at last' year's nominal rate, and inflation 4.5% in FY24, 2.5% in FY25), the state is spending much less on public services than in past. 2/ Part of this decline is offset by steadily rising Federal share of spending by the state. As Indiana becomes poorer, we receive a higher share of Federal dollars for key programs, particularly medical care.

1/ Few elected offices in the nation are better examples of workaday public service than state Secretaries of State. 2/ Here in Indiana, the SoS operates our new business registration process, regulates financial securities, oversees elections, commissioning of notaries public, registration of trademarks and licensing car dealers.

1/ My quick review of the @HigherEdIN college readiness report.

This is a MUST READ for everyone in Indiana. Let me begin by saying that this is a very clear and unvarnished piece of analysis. It also stuns the senses.

@sftierney @ChrisLoweryIN 2/ The headline is an unparalleled decline in educational pursuit that predates COVID.

Indiana has not had a period in which educational attainment declined. This virtually guarantees that the 2020's will be the worst decade for educational attainment decline in state history.

1/n Today @GovHolcomb proposed a special session to consider a tax rebate of $1 billion to Hoosier taxpayers.

We should probably consider this against alternative spending needs and the likelihood that this will contribute to inflation.

wfyi.org/news/articles/… 2/ Today @iche announced that Indiana's 'go to college' rate dropped from 65% in 2015 to 53% in 2020. Half of that came from COVID, but to put it in context, a drop of 1% is economically damaging, 12% is a disaster.

So, we have other spending priorities of consequence.

1/ @BallStateCBER published a study on Indiana's Weak Economic Recovery. Ours is one of the more recent to chronicle the poorly performing Hoosier economy. Others include @aaron_renn @mar_muro1 and @robmaxim. @JamesEBriggs wrote about them here:

indystar.com/story/opinion/… 2/ Our study is here, but let me summarize some of the bigger points. I focused on the long recovery from the Great Recession (2009-2019) because it should've been a time of rebuilding and economic success for Indiana. Instead, we fell farther behind.

bsu.edu/academics/cent…

1/ Today's economic forecast in a brief thread.

Big point, COVID and our policy responses to the pandemic impose huge uncertainty on our economy in 2022. Will the disease ebb, will household spending continue at record levels, and will the fed tighten money supply? 2/ This pandemic (labeled in red below) has reduced labor supply more than all the previous post war recessions combined. So, not too surprising there are places and businesses that struggle to hire the employees they need.

1/n Today @GovHolcomb announced that Indiana will end Federal pandemic UI supplement on June 19. I won't second guess the policy intent of this choice. I've heard all the same 'labor shortage' claims. Many from people I know are honest about the issue.

I will bring data. 2/n Help wanted advertisements across Indiana in March/April are higher than we've seen in the past, but not markedly so. Of course, Indiana had a very bad 2019, and even worse 2020.

This doesn't look like a crises brewing, certainly not in labor markets.

1/n My quick take on the new Indiana budget.

This budget makes big steps to get us back to 2012 per student spending. We won't be there yet (assuming 2% inflation for each of the next two years).

This is not full replacement, but it is a VERY big improvement. 2/n This budget also revitalizes the @Mike_Pence Regional Cities Initiative, which is among the more successful (and thoughtful) urban growth efforts in any state in recent decades.

1/n I was struck by this untruth.

“Our budget margin to do the things we do is very very tight,” Jeff Bird, president of IU Health BMH noted, saying that even that level of funding loss would be a hit to the hospital's financials.

thestarpress.com/story/news/loc… via @TheStarPress 2/n Your periodical reminder that the not-for-profit IU Ball Memorial Hospital is far and away the most profitable business in East Central Indiana. In the past 8 years they've racked up $503,925,000 in profits that added to the $6 Billion IU Health portfolio.

1/n Yesterday, January 6, 2021 was the single most dangerous day for the Republic since July 3, 1863. We've had more costly days, harder days and darker days, but none so dangerous for our Constitution. This was an attack by the Executive Branch on the Constitution and Congress. 2/n Our other dark days include the remainder of the Civil War, assassination attempts, Wilson's stroke, Pearl Harbor, two world wars, Nixon, two other impeachments, 9/11 were all bad. But, in none of those was our Constitutional order really at risk.

1/n At the request of a fellow economist, I’m expanding my criticism of a recent tweet from @oren_cass as part of his @amercompass project.

https://twitter.com/oren_cass/status/1286691198594359296?s=20

2/n Two points need expansion. First, a trade deficit is funded through capital inflows. But, @oren_cass, and he makes a bizarre critique of the form of capital inflow. He argues the form of the inflow has some important economic consequence. But, it doesn’t

1/n Short tweetstorm on our new Policy Brief which asks "How many school-age children lack internet access in Indiana?" and "what factors are associated with not having internet?" This is an important issue as we grapple with COVID.

#Indiana #broadband

projects.cberdata.org/176/how-many-s… 2/n We examined both ACS (regional data) and IPUMS data (micro-records) to obtain estimates of school corporation (district) rates of internet access.

1/n I was fortunate enough to speak to the Mitch Daniels Leadership Foundation class today @MDLF_IN. I spoke about Indiana's economy and what I think many state policymakers fail to see as an urgent call to action, that is far bigger than COVID-19. This is a summary of my talk. 2/n Relative GDP per capita is diverging from both the nation and region. Hoosiers are only 85% as productive as the average American. This is surprising since we have the highest share of employment in manufacturing and logistics which enjoy high GDP per worker.

1/n. Some hesitant, early thoughts on the protests and violence that so deeply capture our attention this weekend, and I imagine most of the summer.

I must begin by noting how stunned I was by the killing of Mr. Floyd. I’ve seen plenty of violence, but remained shocked . . . 2/n . . by the indifference to human suffering displayed by the police officers. It is made worse by their oath and training, and Americans are rightly furious. Protest is clearly warranted, but not sufficient. But, there is no clarity on what else we might do.

1/n A new Covid-19 thread, based on data from Raj Chetty's OI Team. This is via @ProfWeinstein, Ohio's Covid and regional economic guru.

Big consumer spending drop in Indiana, especially in the more populous portions since Covid -19 appeared. 2/n This daily consumer spending data shows that Indiana began to reduce consumer spending BEFORE the stay at home order was introduced. In fact, consumer spending dipped by 37% by that date, or roughly 75% of the full drop.

1/n Saturday eve being tweetstorm regarding the protests about shelter-in-place restrictions. I begin by acknowledging that this is difficult for many. But there are a few leadership precepts at play that have to be acknowledged. 2/n The first matter at issue is the asymmetry of risk. A shelter in place order obviously has economic costs. But doing so a day early has no meaningful effect. Waiting a day can have significant effect on health.

1/n We've just completed a new study of the potential occupational exposure to Social Distancing. In other words, who is at greatest risk of job loss due to schools, government, business, churches and household compliance with CDC recommendations. 2/n The study involves matching OES occupational data with work context information from the O*NET data. The work context data tells us how much an occupation "works with others" and has "close physical proximity with others."

The United States spends well over $150,000 in K-12 education. More than anything else, the American Century was caused by the broad education of our population, both in K-12, then in college.

Read this story, and I'll tell you what is wrong here.

indystar.com/story/news/edu… To begin, I'm not a 'go-to-college' shill. I spent all my 20's as an infantry officer. I know the value of hands on training. Further, I was rightly raised to view all work as equally ennobling. God commanded us to work six days, not just rest one.