Hans Tino Hansen Profile picture
Realistic optimist, Founder & CEO Risk Intelligence @Riskstaff, IR & economics, defence, security, military history, Cold War - All football now at @Hansforza
Apr 9 6 tweets 3 min read
#OTD 9 April 1940
Colonel Bennike, commander of the 🇩🇰Danish 4th Regiment refused to follow the order to surrender. To him the only correct decision was to go to Elsinore and board ships to transport his men to Helsingborg, 🇸🇪Sweden to continue the fight against the Germans 1/5 Image He had issued orders to march to Elsinore, but both due to some officers questioning his orders and other delays, only half of the 11th Battalion made it to the ships and was transported to Helsingborg
(Photo from Elsinore 9 April 1940) 2/5 Image
Feb 11 13 tweets 3 min read
🧵Trump's "NATO death" speech: Even if my conclusion in the below analysis about scenarios for war with Russia in combination of US withdrawal from Europe was ominous, I had not expected it to go potentially straight to the most negative outcome. 1/11
olfi.dk/2024/02/01/dan… The baseline assumption is a war with Russia 2-5 years following the end of a war in Ukraine or the old assumption of a 10-year warning in combination with a US withdrawal from Europe. It would either be "Trump" swift or gradual due to e.g. a strategic shift to the Pacific. 2/11
Mar 27, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
The Danish Army has a critical deficit of contract soldiers and cannot sustain combat capability at brigade or battalion-level according to the Deputy Commander of the Danish Army, Brigadier Lyhne. As I see it, besides the critical lack 1/6

nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2023-0… of soldiers, the structure of the army after decades of reductions is the main reason. Today, even if there are 2 brigades on paper, only the 1st is supposedly to become a combat ready formation. With only 3 combat battalions, the brigade cannot sustain prolonged periods of 2/6
Feb 11, 2023 6 tweets 6 min read
🧵 The Leopard 1A5 is - as I have been arguing since April 2022 - a fine addition to the Ukrainian tank fleet and matches older Ts while also being able to act as infantry support. @CorporalFrisk has a fine analysis below + 4 tweets on my idea development from April 22 to now 1/5 The initial idea was generated back in April 2022 when the initial request from Ukraine and discussions with KMW and FFG emerged, but had no political support in Germany stopped the process. 2/5
Jan 21, 2023 7 tweets 7 min read
The sudden apparent blind selection of replacement capacity for the CAESAR 155mm howitzer in Denmark after the donation to Ukraine does not make sense. Denmark is forming a medium heavy infantry brigade and in NATO planning we are to deliver a heavy infantry brigade by 2032. 1/6 The French CAESAR system, which is an excellent wheel-based long range artillery system as witnessed in Ukraine, was selected due to specifications developed after our mechanized brigade capacity was dropped (2004) and prior to the decision to - partly - re-build the capacity 2/6
Jan 15, 2023 7 tweets 6 min read
19 ex-Danish Piranha IIIH APCs are being delivered to Moldova by Germany as part of a military support package from Germany.
Thread 1/4
army.md/?lng=2&action=… ImageImageImage Denmark announced in April 2022 it would donate between a number of Piranha III to Ukraine (about 20-25 APCs), but this was blocked by Switzerland in June 2022 2/4 srf.ch/news/schweiz/w…
Jul 23, 2022 9 tweets 6 min read
A thread with my analysis of the situation: The grain export agreement between UN, Russia and Ukraine brokered by Turkey will reportedly consist of four main elements and will be dependent on four preconditions:
1/8

bbc.com/news/world-eur… The 4 main elements of the agreement’s practical implementation

1) Commercial vessels enroute Ukrainian ports will be inspected by a joint coordination centre in Istanbul, containing representatives from the UN, (Ukraine, Russia) & Turkey to check they do not carry weapons
2/8
Sep 13, 2021 10 tweets 5 min read
Tråd: Diskussionen om hvilken klub der er Skandinaviens største er et tilbagevendende spørgsmål. Jon Dahl Tomassons udtalelse om at MFF er størst i Skandinavien starter den igen. Man kan vurdere det ud fra mange kriterier og jeg vil opremse nogle i det følgende 1/8 #fcklive Nationale mesterskaber. Her har Rosenborg flest med 26 overfor MFFs 24 og FCKs 12. Hvis man ser på antal vundne fra 2000 ligger FCK og Rosenborg side om side med 12, hver. 2/8
Aug 29, 2021 16 tweets 7 min read
#OTD 29 August 1807 at the battle of Køge the Danish formation of Landeværn (militia) under command of Lt General Count Castenshiold was defeated and routed by the British Reserve under Major General Wellesley (later the Duke of Wellington) - long thread 1/15 #napoleonicwars Battle of Køge by Christian... The British Army of 26,000 troops under Lt General Cathcart had landed at Vedbæk 16 August 1807 and reached Copenhagen outskirt during August in order to capture the main part of the Danish-Norwegian Navy to prevent it falling into Napoleon’s hands. 2/15 British landing at Vedbæk 1807
Aug 23, 2021 14 tweets 6 min read
Tråd: Mohamed Daramys transfer og bud fra Club Brugge og Ajax afstedkom en del diskussion om at de to klubber havde meget større økonomi end FCK. Derfor har jeg kigget lidt på de tre selskabers regnskab fra 2020, da halvårsregnskaberne ikke er til rådighed endnu 1/12 👇🏻 #fcklive Image Omsætning: Hvis man kun ser på omsætningen på de tre selskaber PSE A/S, Club Brugge N.V. og AFC Ajax N.V. så ligger den på samme niveau for de første to men væsentligt over i Ajax. FCK har også i 2019 væsentligt over. Nedgangen fra 2019 var 35% for PSE/FCK og 19% for Ajax. 2/12👇🏻 Image
Aug 14, 2021 14 tweets 5 min read
Det kan være svært at forstå transferøkonomi i fodbold. Her er en lang tråd om påvirkning af resultatet fra køb og salg, hvor jeg prøver at forklare hvordan det hænger sammen og hvorfor man ikke bare kan sammenligne køb og salg i et transfervindue: 1/12 #fcklive #transferdk #sldk Image 2) En fodboldklub har som andre virksomheder et driftsregnskab, hvor alle indtægter og udgifter opgøres. Derefter fratrækkes primært finansielle omkostninger og afskrivninger og nettoresultatet beregnes der så skat af. Til sidst har man resultat efter skat. 2/12 👇🏻