Host of the world's most important conversations: @twistartups @theallinpod & @liquiditypod; I also invest in 150 startups a year @launch & @founderuni
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Oct 31 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
It is IMPOSSIBLE to "steal" the Presidential election by cheating.
You *MIGHT* be able to steal a very local election, but you would almost certainly get caught. Put this aside for a moment and let's talk about Tuesday's Presidential race.
Here's some basic logic and math:
1/We have 50 different states, each with its own process. You can cheat in every state, sure, but you can't do it at a scale that tips even the tightest swing state.
2/35 of 50 states ALREADY have voter ID.
It is impossible to do large-scale cheating in these states because it would require:
a) stealing someone's ballot
b) creating a fake ID
c) MAKING SURE THEY DON'T VOTE while you use that stolen ID and fraudulent/stolen ballot
That last point (c) is essential because you would create a collision if you stole someone's ID and ballot and then voted as them.
Just like stealing someone's ticket on a flight or a to a basketball game would result in you geting busted when you both try and sit in that seat!
Sep 19 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/There's a bunch of hand-wringing around this post about YC, pre-seed stage startups, ZIRP, and tech cycles.
I have some insights here, given we run a per-accelerator and an accelerator.
First, while anyone can define the power law, few have lived it as deeply as pre-seed stage investors.
Owning 1% of Airbnb pays for 6,000+ accelerator bets.
That's 12 years of YC at 500 startups a year (I think they do ~450 now; my first @LAUNCH does 100).
It would be statistically improbable for the number one player in seed-stage investing not to hit one Airbnb (or Uber) in 6,000 bets (sorry @MeghanKReynolds, investments!!!).
Especially with 500,000+ applications over that time (they get 45k apps a year, and we're the number two player with a ~20k app run rate--which is impossible to keep up with BTW).
2/Our industry runs through boom and bust cycles, so you can expect a LOT of "vintage distortion"
The most common second order impact? The peanut butter effect.
During the peak ZIRP era we had:
a. many exceptional team members left the startup they were number two or three at and created their own startups--spreading the "peanut butter" of talent really thin
b. many founders rushed into the same verticals, with very similar products, spreading the "peanut butter" of clients and profits really thin
c. LPs backed many new funds, which created more competition and spread the peanut butter of LP and GP ownership really thin
.... but with so much money chasing the magic of the last vintage we had....
Dec 7, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Insanely cool new innovation: @densityio's "adaptive cleaning" monitors which parts of your office are used, and sends cleaning people to those areas dynamically based on usage thresholds.
This is saving customers millions of dollars a year already... easily paying for the cost of installing Density's people counting software.
8 episodes...
Episode 1: "The Fallen Prince" The mini-series opens with Kendall Roy (Jeremy Strong) in a self-imposed exile following his downfall in the "Succession" series finale. He's living a modest life, wrestling with guilt and regret.
Apr 29, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
This new waffle machine is a beast
You set the type of waffle you’re making 🧇 I’m using buttermilk today
Apr 15, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🧵 AI is going to nuke the bottom third of performers in jobs done on computers — even creative ones — in the next 24 months
White collar salaries are going to plummet to the average of the global work force & the speed at which the top performers can write prompts
If you’re low to average at your job you need to get on these tools immediately, learn how to augment yourself, & invest massively in your ability to add new skills constantly
Companies are going to get dramatically smaller & more profitable, like Facebook, twitter, & others… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Dec 10, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
O.H. in the Valley last night:
1/For the past decade a vocal minority of elites, with the easiest & highest-paying jobs, have vocally attacked capitalism while being the biggest beneficiaries of it
Those elites are now considered unnecessary & their jobs are being eliminated
2/I listened to this conversation and it was clear that there is a new culture war starting that leaders are very tuned into it.
Everyone asks, "who is doing essential work at this company?"
If you're not on that list, your position is eliminated one person said.
Nov 25, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Might not be a popular opinion, but I think @andrewrsorkin should do this interview & hold @SBF_FTX to account for every detail of this “alleged” fraud 🙄
All of it will be admissible, & the @nytimes SBF coverage has been so embarrassing this is a real shot at redemption
@andrewrsorkin should start with the massive political and media donations, grants, gifts and grift—in detail.
You gifted $tk to TK—what was your goal?
Nov 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Name your top three critics today and what value they bring to your life
Never forget the role of the critic #thenew
Nov 19, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
If you love what you do, get paid well, & wake up excited to do it every day, that’s winning
If you hate your job, comp sucks, & you loathe the thought of doing it, make a plan & find something new
Note: reality still applies, change can be hard &our industry has it REALLY easy
We in tech, higher education, media, & finance live at a level of privilege and optionality that is historic in the history of humanity.
Yet we complain & argue while most of the world struggles silently, perplexed by our narcissistic machinations of how “trapped” we are.
I do understand some in our community don’t want us doing single-topic episodes (or this one), but we are going to take chances with the format of the pod
Sometimes we will take on topics we find important but you may not… which is what is great about podcasts IMO. 🙏🏽
May 7, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
🧵 Startup fund-raising market update:
✅ Early-stage startups still raising money
✅ Angels, Seed Funds, & Syndicates still active
However…
🚩 Deals are taking 2-3x longer to close
👍 People who traded momentum & “social proof” for due diligence have started doing diligence again
This is healthy and good for everyone. So, who is clearing market and who I struggling?
1. @jaketapper's book club was a serviceable "magazine" style show. Way overproduced & would be much better if it was less edited & glossy.
A raw, longer-form podcast would have been a much better experience... I really like JT.
2. the live interface is clunky but not terrible (ok for 1.0).
You can ask questions in a more structured way than in a YouTube chat, but that's a mistake. You actually want a vibrant, fast-moving chat NOT a slow Q&A approval process.
1/Tarantino DAO: raising $100m in order to inspire QT to develop 10 more projects (he said he would only do 10 movies)
These 10 can be produced, written, directed or otherwise approved by him
500k fans donate $200 each, everyone gets a profanity-laden NFT
2/Star Wars Sequels redo DAO: $1b raised by 10m fans to buy the rights to make a fan, Lucas, and @HamillHimself approved version of the Star Wars sequels
All members get their childhoods back.
Jul 5, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My philosophy of startup investing (in 2021)
1/back as many great founders as you can, as early as possible
2/if their company fails, be the first investor in their next project
3/if their company grows more than 3x year-over-year keep investing until you reach 15%+ ownership
Early stage can apply at our accelerator to work with me and my team for 20 weeks, meeting 1,000+ investors: launch.co/apply
1/🧵People quitting instead of coming back to offices is very real
Amazing for startups who will recruit the most talented folks who are well paid (some might say overpaid) at big companies—but who will take significantly less in order to work from home #remotework#WorkFromHome
2/Executives have figured out how to manage remote workers so well, that they will need 20% less of them. basically, low performers “have nowhere to hide” in a remote world where folks do an SOD and EOD (start of day and end of day) on SLACK
May 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/Been getting a ton of questions from founders about the $4b Clubhouse valuation
Here's how to do the math.
-- CH will make ~$10 a year per users
-- With 5-10m users that's $50-100m in revenue
-- 10x revenue is $250m to $1b in value
so why $4b?? read on ...
2/When a startup is growing fast in a hot market people give credit for 2-5x their performance in order to "get the deal"
That surges CH's valuation to $500m to $5b--in this case it landed at $4b
This makes no sense... unless you invested in Facebook, Uber, or Google!
So..
Apr 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Ignore the critics
"In many ways, the work of a critic is easy. We risk very little, yet enjoy a position over those who offer up their work and their selves to our judgment."
"We thrive on negative criticism, which is fun to write and to read. But the bitter truth we critics must face, is that in the grand scheme of things, the average piece of junk is probably more meaningful than our criticism designating it so."
Mar 4, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
1/Most folks don’t have a startup, they have an *idea* or *plan* for a startup
no one invests in ideas or plans today
I haven’t seen ideas/plans get funded for ~20 years
So what gets funded?
— Growing Startups
— World-class products
— Track Records
— ... then everything else
2/Investors pick their inventory in three phases.... First, they look for “the chart.” Basically, you’re growing ~20% a month, consistently, for ~six months
After VCs can’t find any more investments with the chart they move on to the second tier startups....
Feb 7, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Podcasting tips form someone who has recorded 1,200 episodes and who hosts 2 of the top 10 tech podcasts:
1. Audio quality is critical. You need the best hardware, software, and post production. get this perfect or don’t bother starting a podcast.
2. Video is not as important as audio, & it takes 20x as much effort to do a quality video podcast as an audio one
Recording, editing, storing, sharing video is expensive & time consuming
A great audio podcast is ~$500
A great video podcast is thousands
Recommend: @collision interviewing Stanley Druckenmiller
