1/11 Are we overestimating the potential economic impact of AI? I explore a mini-debate between noted MIT economist Daron Acemoglu and the Goldman Sachs econ team: 🧵 2/11 Acemoglu's new paper suggests a modest boost to US productivity (0.7%) and GDP growth (1.1%) over a decade.

1/ When I wrote my 2023 book “THE CONSERVATIVE FUTURIST: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised,” I was greatly inspired by this famous image, and here’s why:🧵 2/ The "pale blue dot" photo taken by Voyager 1 in 1990 (thanks to Carl Sagan's NASA nudging) at a distance of 3.7 billion miles from the Sun shows Earth as a tiny speck in the vastness of deep space. As Sagan beautifully, movingly described it:

1/ My new book is out: "The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised." But what is it about, exactly? You might be surprised! Let's check out the Intro: "America's Tomorrowland Problem" ... #WhitepillWednesday hachettebookgroup.com/titles/james-p… 2/ My book argues that America has lost its "Up Wing" ethos. Up Wing means techno-optimism & belief innovation/growth can build better future. More important than Left vs Right! Sorry, partisans! ⤴

1/ My new book is out: "The Conservative Futurist: How to Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised." But what is it about, exactly? You might be surprised! Let's check out the Intro: "America's Tomorrowland Problem" ... hachettebookgroup.com/titles/james-p… 2/ My book argues that America has lost its "Up Wing" ethos. Up Wing means techno-optimism & belief innovation/growth can build better future. More important than Left vs Right. ⤴

1/ In my latest pro-growth/tech/progress newsletter, Faster, Please!, I discuss why we need more clean energy for new innovations — even bitcoin — and, more importantly, to maximize human potential.
fasterplease.substack.com/p/we-need-more… 2/ Consider 3 facts:

#1 Two-thirds of all bitcoin mining has occurred in China.

#2 Nearly 60% of China’s energy comes from burning coal.

#3 Bitcoin miners are expected to consume roughly 0.6% of global electricity — an amount similar to Sweden’s annual electricity use.

1/ Yes, we should boost US science research funding. But we need to get the details right. I discuss this in my latest pro-growth/tech/progress newsletter, Faster, Please!
fasterplease.substack.com/p/we-need-more… 2/ It sure seems like everyone — myself included — wants to spend more taxpayer dough on science and technology research. (Federal R&D spending, as a share of GDP, is only a third of what it was during the Space Race 1960s.)

A short thread: Why the *reality" of wage stagnation, flat income growth, and upward immobility may not be what you think. Like, at all.
aei.org/economics/chec… 1/ Wages have not been stagnant for decades. "Over the past three decades, wages for typical workers have grown by 20% using the CPI. And using the PCE — the better measure of inflation — finds a 34% increase in wages."

A brief thread: Is America still suffering from "late capitalism?" aei.org/economics/amer… 1/ New Census numbers suggest not, pre-pandemic. Data for 2019 show median US income rose nearly 7 percent to $68,703. “Rising employment and broad-based wage increases in 2019 helped drive that uptick” is how officials explain the increase, according to @washingtonpost

1/ Common question I get: "Rs don’t care about deficits. Not really. So why are they not spending whatever it takes to juice the economy and get Trump (and themselves) reelected." Juice, baby, juice! My best answer: theweek.com/articles/92667… 2/ Don't forget Rs have already agreed to $3t in spending. That’s unprecedented. And they seem willing to spend at least another $1t. And the economy is rebounding. Maybe that's enough.

1/ Concerns about corporate concentration seem to be a constant concern among commentators. Crisis of capitalism! Especially Big Tech. Here are 3 charts of interest from Goldman Sachs for historical and global perspective: 2/ Sector dominance has been a feature of the equity market throughout history (Share of the biggest sector in the US)

THREAD:

1/ The American economy is shutting down. An insta-depression (effectively) encouraged by government to stop the spread of #COVID-19. But the ongoing collapse of 30m small businesses will cause mass unemployment today and painfully slow recovery tomorrow. 2/ The economic support package being discussed in Congress will be helpful: a $300-$350 billion lifeline pushed by Senators Rubio, Collins, and Cardin. washingtonpost.com/powerpost/unli…

⏰ THREAD:

1/ The US economy is imploding. That’s the message of the plunging stock market and rising jobless claims. And Washington is not doing nearly enough to stop it. Forecasts of a deep recession followed by a strong recovery are too optimistic. Here’s why: 2/ The expanding #Covid-19 quarantines and shutdowns mean the utter destruction of many of the 30 million small businesses -- restaurants, shops, hotels -- that employ 60 million people. wsj.com/articles/for-s…

1/ A THREAD: Goldman Sachs just gave a massive downgrade to the US economy because of #COVIDー19. How might that affect the 2020 presidential election? 2/ Here is the gloomy new baseline forecast from GS, lopping a percentage point from 2020 real GDP growth (Q4/Q4) to a meager 1.0%:

1/ After yet another strong jobs report, what is the Democratic argument against Trumponomics? These points from @amprog's take on today's numbers might be suggestive of possible responses: 2/ "... 2019 was the slowest year for job growth since 2011, when the economy was just climbing back from the great recession"

1/ Is American capitalism broken, as populists and progressives insist? Or is the American Dream alive and well? Here are a few🌞data nuggets gleaned from this powerful analysis by @AEI colleague and economist @MichaelRStrain. wsj.com/articles/the-a… 2/ No upward mobility? Around three-quarters of people in their 40s today have higher (inflation-adjusted) household incomes than their parents did when their parents were of similar age. And 72% of men raised in the working class earn more than their dads did.

1/ @JoeRogan is wrong when he says Bernie Sanders has been "insanely consistent" in his views. Not so much, really. So many questions, @SenSanders 2/ Why does Bernie Sanders no longer promote hardcore socialism, particularly nationalizing key industries? He sure used to, as I write in my @TheWeek column: theweek.com/articles/89120…