New from me today for the @nationalpost: "Our obsession with 'wokeness' is poisoning our politics"

#cdnpoli

nationalpost.com/opinion/karamv… In this piece, I argue that we miss the forest for the trees by constantly dividing and subdividing our citizenry. 2/n

The discussion around the Emergencies Act vote prompted me to think, what if we understood this as a Bayesian game? My thoughts: #cdnpoli 🧵

Parties have political (messaging) and electoral considerations to their strategy. Given this, we can predict party behaviour 1/24 The CPC has the least downside risk to opposing the EA. They lead the opposition, and benefit from offering voters a clear choice... 2/24

Here's my prediction on how the CPC leadership race and next election will go based on random thoughts that I had + some minutes looking at Twitter. Take it for what it's worth. #cdnpoli 🧵

1st: beyond COVID, the #1 issue is personal finances, or abstractly, the economy... 1/24 Politicians love talking about the economy! Reason is simple: economy is jobs/affordability abstracted. What's the problem? For many, folks feel like their cost of living is increasing.
Where is this felt? Ordinary purchases: childcare, groceries, gas, housing, etc. 2/24

Thread:

CPC gains in the provinces of ON and BC didn’t translate into seats into the GTA and GVR.

To investigate this, I sliced the electoral map against some demographic values. Two values jumped out at me: visible minorities (generally) and ethnic Chinese. #elxn44 #cdnpoli 1. Here are maps of GVR and the GTA with ridings shaded by percent VM population:

#cdnpoli #elxn44 Some wonder why I'm bearish on the chances of a CPC government and more bullish than others on the possibility of an LPC majority. I hope you'll enjoy this pre-English debate thread involving some math and pathways to victory for the big parties 🤓

Thread: 1. Canada is a big country, and folks aren't familiar with all its regions. We know for example that within AB, Edmonton and Calgary are quite different than rural parts of the province. The same applies to other provinces and their respective regions.

I'm going to go against the grain here and say a Liberal majority is more likely than not. (Yes I am acutely aware of what the polls and projections are saying).

There are a few environmental factors that are in play here that are worth flagging: (thread)

#cdnpoli 1. The Liberal war room knows that their attacks are weaksauce and are probably annoyed that Twitter is mocking them. However, the headlines I'm seeing seem to indicate that the Liberal framing is still making its way into the press: (headlines about abortion, LGBTQ rights, etc)