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KramerKarma Profile picture
KramerKarma
@KramerKarma1
#COM Human Calculator Calculating FCF, gathering macro data & charts are my thing. Cdn oil stocks save from inflation. Jesus saves from sin
Mar 29 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Revised down + storm ... still a large number vs peak. GOM was down... interesting Image
Feb 23 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Oil Rigs 💱 Fracs ~ Supply
Call me crazy but drills = frac lead = Supply. First seen as total liquids appearing in adjustment line. Image If production stays flat ... we need to import 3.89M bbl/d ... almost 2022 levels so OPEC would control market via cuts.
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Nov 2, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Data day!
EIA # rounded
SPR -1.9
Crude -3.1
Gasoline-1.26
Distillate +.43
NET draw 5.83 Charts! My favorite. 💚
Oct 20, 2022 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
🚨 USA Shale 🚨
My latest math & model
Like & share please #OOTT #COM #oilprice #GasPrice
This model is via EIA DPR.
It's based on averages and therefor is an estimate.
Let's dive in! The EIA has the Drilling Productivity Report at 9 million barrels oil per day ...continued 1/8 Image Shale wells decline AVERAGE 60% per year with 40% of production remaining in the following year. I can get more precise but for simple example this is very close.
So 9M oil .6 declines so .4 remains.
9M ×.6 = 5.4M bbl/d needs replacement per year. (2/8) Image
Apr 21, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
$OBE is RED gotta make a post & vent lol.
The market is forward looking
...OK so look to the end of the year exit 22' 31,600boe and debt of 124M EV of 919M $/boe of $33k (equal to $90/boe or 3 years at q4 prices)... takes breath 😄 🤣 😂
(100wti 31k boe yr ave example) Image Also that's about 300M FCF at 31,600 boe 157M capex in 2023. (But I'd bet on some growth or higher fcf if not growing and lower capex)
Apr 9, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
EV trucks. Long range is an issue. 334kwh = 112km 2.98KWh / km
VS BMW i4
84KWh = 484km 0.173KWH /km
Now you gotta charge them all at the same time every night to be ready for work the next day
200Amps 550-750 volts
That's 130,000 watts
1/82 of a windmill
1/4200 of a oil well ImageImageImage Just incase any long haul truckers are worried you'd need to 10x the 334kwh battery to get 1000km. The current price of batteries is $100/KWh so a nice $334k for the battery of a long haul truck... with 220,000lbs of batteries to haul 30kg /kwh.