The Times finally gets real about #Brexit

In the first of a two-part series, business reporters look at how parts of the service economy are faring almost two and a half years after the end of the Brexit transition period in late 2020.

#BrexitHasFailed “Britain voted to leave the EU seven years ago, but has failed to define its new global trading relationships. To regain its place as one of the strongest growing G7 countries, Britain needs a bold, forward-looking policy agenda and industrial strategy integrated with an actively… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Tories are drawing up plans for a succession of by-elections in the event that Boris Johnson is forced to resign and prominent supporters stand down so they can accept peerages.

The Times has been told that party staffers will conduct a series of “by-election drills” next week… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Senior Tories are increasingly concerned that Johnson could resign in protest if the report, due next month, is critical of him. He could also face a by-election if the committee decides to suspend him from the Commons for 10+ days.

The by-election drills will look at the seats… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Rishi Sunak’s lack of industrial strategy attacked by former business secretaries.

@vincecable @GregClarkMP and Peter Mandelson accuse @RishiSunak of failing to prepare 🇬🇧 for the future with effective or even visible industrial strategy
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ft.com/content/f568ea… Clark said PM was so unenthusiastic about the idea that it was “like a guilty secret”, and that he had never heard Sunak even refer to “industrial strategy”.

The role of the state in the market economy has become a huge issue after US president Joe Biden’s $369bn green subsidy… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

“#Brexit is the last straw after a succession of damaging, mainly Tory, policies: ironically, these were justified as being in the interests of business, investment and productivity.

But the Thatcher govts from 1979 onwards inflicted serious damage on the economy. I have… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… “With an economy suffering cumulative effects of poor growth or absolute decline in real incomes – and along comes #Brexit. And what does former remainer @Keir_Starmer do? He ignores the open goal of the government’s disaster and says “make Brexit work”.
theguardian.com/business/2023/…

Thanks to #Brexit 🇬🇧 is already 2/3 of the way to…The Great Depression.

For a nation which until a few short years ago was the envy of the world — but then decided to basically inflict the Great Depression on itself. It’s like watching someone who was in perfect health@until last week and now they have a case of cancer so advanced there are tumors all over the body, and they’re going into organ failure. Never seen anything like it. Beggars belief. Shouldn’t happen. Shouldn’t even be possible.

#RejoinEU is only satisfactory means of addressing manifest problems caused by #Brexit.

To #GetBrexitUndone is a substantial challenge, but failing to pursue it is not a means of avoiding problems which mount around us as Brexit continues harming 🇬🇧
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fedtrust.co.uk/getting-brexit… Claims that rejoin is not a practical option are in a sense self-fulfilling.

A key obstacle to this objective is that those who might seek to achieve it are dissuaded by the perception that such a programme is doomed to fail.

Recognising that such predictions need not ….

2022 saw rise of #Brexit regret. Opinion polling saw high support for #RejoinEU

So what changed?

1. In Dec @CER_EU found that Brexit cost 🇬🇧 a staggering £33bn in lost trade, investment and growth with estimated the tax loss from Brexit at c. £40bn.

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi… The research showed that by June of this year Britain’s economy was 5.5% smaller than it would have been if the country had remained in the EU.

1. We must be better at succession planning… local parties should be supported and encouraged to look at forward cycles, in both all ups, and by thirds’

Thread 🧵 2. Our local Council teams are fantastic, but we can improve. I talk to too many Cllrs and candidates who are frustrated by the lack of reasonable adjustments. I will help local execs understand and improve the issues.

At @euromove panel with Michael Heseltine and @DavidGauke

Heseltine opens with claim @Keir_Starmer has made major political mistake on #Brexit. Heseltine says we are interwoven with Europe and Truss has to do another u-turn on Brexit.

@DavidGauke says Truss is asking right Q on growth. We need to address issues caused by #brexit.

Undermining of institutions is part of 6 yr Brexit-driven flight from reality in which any individual/institution that provides unwelcome advice is dismissed as part of some giant left-wing, woke Remoaner plot, a conspiracy that now apparently includes the world’s dealing desks. Kwarteng’s budgetary gamble was driven by urgent need to demonstrate some economic benefit from a Brexit that so far has led only to slower growth, weaker public finances and higher taxes.

Letter in the Times today from Leigh Lewis, who headed DWP between 2005 and 2010, saying that if Simon Case does not have the “courage and conviction” to stand up for the civil service, then he “needs to make way for someone who has”.

And there’s more ….. 🧵 Former head of civil service Lord Turnbull says ministers are picking a fight with civil service to distract from their “rubbish” leadership on the economy over past 12yrs.

He said it’s “completely unconvincing” to blame officials for sluggish growth ….

thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-tr…

Expectations for #Brexit benefits have in fact mirrored hopes of #iraq invasion unearthing WOMD.

Hopes for cheaper food/fuel have seen 🇬🇧 prices soar above EU as 🇬🇧 businesses drown in red tape.

Even #Brexit opportunities minister failed to identify Brexit bonuses.

But … 🧵 Rees-Mogg was promoted to business secretary and now in charge of cutting regulation to “boost business-led growth and investment”.

A crucial job as 🇬🇧 is crushed by global energy crisis — a role that one of wealthiest in cabinet is expected to relish.

But who will benefit?

William Rees-Mogg was editor of The Times. In 1971 a conversation with him was filmed.

Full programme:
1/2 William Rees-Mogg wrote the prophetic book The Sovereign Individual and had views on capitalism and chaos that have fascinating links to his son’s enthusiasm for #Brexit.

“Some donors expressed concern after Johnson used his speech at V&A fundraising dinner to perform a sexually suggestive call-and-response routine with Nadine Dorries. Johnson asked her about latest broadband rollout figures and Dorries replied: “69%”. Johnson grinned and ….. repeated “69!” to some laughter. But one of those present said: “Everyone around me cringed.” A minister present added: “The donors are turning against him.” That may partly explain why the billionaire hedge fund manager Sir Michael Hintze is to be given a peerage in the …

Sterling turning into ‘emerging market currency’

In downbeat assessment of UK economic prospects, the impact of #Brexit, and potential politicisation of monetary policy, US investment bank believes investors will dump 🇬🇧 currency after sustained weakness
thetimes.co.uk/article/9ee441… Sterling has fallen by 6.5% against the dollar so far this year to a two-year low, largely as a result of the US central bank’s aggressive tightening of monetary policy pushing up the value of the greenback.

Tory candidate in Somerset says voters are ripping down her posters and burning them.

“I’ve had people throw leaflets back out the door at me as well.”

Political strategists suggest there has been a shift away from the Conservatives in the countryside.

archive.ph/2022.05.01-210… Countryside voters, who are often keen to protect the natural beauty of their homes, say plans to rip up the planning system to build more houses and erect new onshore wind farms are a direct attack on their way of life.

EU and USA are helping their farmers cope with inflationary costs of inputs which far exceed food prices. Agri inputs reached almost 30% in 12 months to March 2022.

However, British govt continue to remove food subsidy and offer farmers a few quid to rewild or retire. 
1/3 🧵

https://twitter.com/savebritishfood/status/1512708437213433860

Many farmers are having to plough back in their produce as there’s no labour to harvest/process. Pig farmers are killing pigs on farms and the meat is wasted because the processing sector has a labour crisis.

Those lucky enough to sell animals are facing big losses.

https://twitter.com/AHDB_Pork/status/1512434874392715266

UK’s trade deficit in January easily 💥biggest💥 on record: huge £26.5bn for goods and £16.2bn for goods & services taken together.

Not figures for those of nervous disposition. The deficit in goods is usually c £12bn, while overall deficit well below £10bn.

🧵 #Brexit The other worry, recently highlighted by the OBR is the UK’s disengagement from international trade.

Trade is good: it drives productivity and other improvements. It is no accident that politicians of the past lauded export-led growth. “Export or die” used to be a slogan and …

#AnyQuestions “With rising energy costs, should we be exploiting our gas and oil reserves?”

@EdwardJDavey “The truth is that price of gas/oil is set globally so even if we produce more it won’t help. Good news is renewables can cut people’s bills.” #CostOfLivingCrisis @RobertJenrick argues that Govt are helping people with #CostOfLivingCrisis.

@EdwardJDavey “This is just a swindle! The chancellor is telling you, Robert just repeated it, that he’s cutting taxes. He’s not, he’s shoving yr taxes up…conservatives have completely lost the plot!”

Joe Biden’s speech 🔥

“I say to the #Russian oligarchs and corrupt leaders who built billions of 💵 off this violent regime, no more. I mean it.

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#Ukraine

https://politico.cominteractives/2022/state-of-the-union-2022-live-watch-online-streaming-video-transcript-3-1-2022/ The 🇺🇸 dept of justice is assembling a dedicated task force to go after the crimes of the 🇷🇺 oligarchs. We are joining with European allies to find and seize their yachts, luxury apartments, private jets. We are coming for you. Tonight, I am announcing we will join our allies …

Thinking the unthinkable: emergence of “a vast zone of destabilisation and insecurity” from Estonia to Turkey if Putin wins sovereignty over Ukraine.

@LianaFix: “Any idea EU or Nato can ensure peace on the continent will be the artefact of a lost age”
thetimes.co.uk/article/2bfa58… “Cold War analogies will not be helpful in 🌍 with Russianised Ukraine,” bc in the Europe of the Cold War the geopolitical dividing lines were stabilised under 1975 Helsinki Accords.