In response to a series of targeted Israeli strikes, including the recent assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah has adopted a new, covert strategy we’ll call ‘Shadow Operations.’ This approach minimizes public exposure and focuses on adapting to the group's most severe leadership crisis to date. Hezbollah has shared no updates on the fate of key figures, including Hashim Saffiedine, and there’s been no public announcement about Nasrallah’s successor. It’s speculated that the successor may be a military figure with field expertise, operating closer to ground forces rather than a prominent public figure. This decision likely emphasizes operational effectiveness over political visibility.

#Iraq election results are yet to be confirmed by @IHECOfficial but a few immediate takeaways in🧵 (1) @Mu_AlSadr w/ more seats than all other Shia blocs combined; (2) @AlHaLboosii 's Takadum registers the largest increase from 2018 with 38 new seats; (3) Fateh loses 28 seats and wins 4 Christian seats; (4) KDP almost double PUK seats; (5) 20 independents and 10 Imtidad

This far, #Sadr wins the largest parliamentary bloc with a total of 73 seats:

Baghdad (28)
Basra (9)
Dhi Qar (8)
Babel (2)
Amarah (7)
Wasit (5)
Najaf (5)
Karbala (4)
Diwaniyah (3)
Samawah (2) State of law follows with 36:

Baghdad (14)
Basra (2)
Dhi Qar (4)
Babel (3)
Wasit (2)
Najaf (2)
Karbala (2)
Diwaniyah (2)
Muthana (3)
Maysan (2)

#Nasrallah believes the US is forcing two options on #Lebanon: Starvation or disarmament of #Hezbollah. #Nasrallah assertively chooses war rather than succumbing to pressure - a unilateral choice in a divided society. Implications:

(1/6) Social fragmentation and deeper divides will weaken the state and allow militia/party groups to thrive. Anti-#Hezbollah sentiment will be massaged by political opponents and the international community.

(2/6)