Netanyahu govt will be sworn in today in #Israel. Lots has been said/written by now (and rightfully so) about his incoming ministers, areas of responsibility, and what new govt will do.

But going thru coalition agreements here are some key issues that jumped out to me

<THREAD> 2/ *Judicial reform* in all the coalition agmnts: Govt wants to re-set relationship w justice system & Supreme Court, incl override clause, change in judicial appt process, ministerial legal advisors to be political appointees. These reforms take *precedence* over all other bills

A raft of former Israeli security officials now says the Iran nuclear deal was better than nothing and that Trump's 2018 withdrawal (at Netanyahu's urging) was a major strategic mistake that only advanced Iran's nuclear program. newlinesmag.com/reportage/why-…

A brief history <THREAD> 2/ Outgoing head of IDF Military Intelligence Research Division, Oct ‘20:

“Iran is far from falling to its knees; it has not folded.…It has not yet been proven that the exit from the nuclear agreement served Israel.”

Major manhunt underway in Israel after 6 Palestinian security prisoners escape from max-security prison overnight -now ~9 hrs ago. Escapees dug tunnel/hole in bathroom drain that led out of prison. Authorities alerted after local farmer called police at 3am re suspicious activity Israeli authorities set up checkpoints in north Israel & West Bank. Prison Service, Shin Bet, IDF all taking part in manhunt incl drones, helicopters, trackers. Prisoners likely escaped to West Bank & primarily Jenin (13km from prison). Other options close-by Jordan & Lebanon

Senior Israeli military officers likely looking on at Afghanistan w a glimmer of recognition. All of them served in southern Lebanon & were active during Israel’s shambolic withdrawal in May 2000 – after 2 decades of conflict

Some insights from the Israeli experience

<THREAD> 2/ Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 for CT purposes (vs PLO then) & formalized military/economic ties w south Lebanese people & local militias

South Lebanon Army was born: 2500-strong force armed & trained by IDF, led by Christian officers but consisting of Druze, Sunnis & Shiites

"US spent more on nation-building in Afghanistan than in any country ever, allocating $133 billion for reconstruction, aid programs & Afghan security forces. Adjusted for inflation, that's more than the US spent in Western Europe with the Marshall Plan." washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/… "Instead of bringing stability & peace, US inadvertently built corrupt, dysfunctional Afghan government that remains dependent on US military power for survival. Assuming it does not collapse, US officials have said it will need billions more dollars in aid annually, for decades"

Bennett-Lapid unity govt begins its term in #Israel. 8 party coalition spanning from Left to Center to Right & even incl Islamists. Holds 61 seats in 120 Knesset. Q on everyone’s mind is how long can it last?

The answer is longer than people imagine. <THREAD> 2/ First & foremost, parliamentary procedure:

To topple a govt in Israel need more than just no confidence vote. Need *constructive no confidence* vote, ie 61 seats & alternative PM/govt. Nearly impossible so long as Netanyahu still heads Likud (30 seats) & is opposition leader

What does Hamas want?
In almost every previous escalation & war, group that rules #Gaza wanted tangible “things”: money, aid, loosening of blockade, greater access/mvmnt, etc. I've written about it countless times - 'logic' behind Hamas rocket fire. No such asks now.

1 <Thread> 2. Tensions & clashes in Jerusalem during Ramadan formed backdrop to this round. Israel late in understanding scope of unrest & de-escalating

But Netanyahu did so yday - taking steps that at least contained violence, esp on Jlem Day. Paying a price for this from his Right.

Overnight 2 rockets fired from #Gaza at #Israel. A year ago last week, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commander Baha Abu al-Atta was assassinated – setting off 2 day escalation.

It was one of most important events in recent *Israeli* political history. This is why <THREAD> 1/ 2/ Context: September 2019 Israel holds 2nd straight elex. Netanyahu loses badly & can’t form coalition govt. Mandate to form govt passes to Gantz end of October

It’s the first time in a decade that someone other than Netanyahu tasked w forming a govt

So about that crazy story of MEK Iran oppo leader Maryan Rajavi visiting Israel & mtg w/ Netanyahu & Mossad chief -- all tweeted from account of French consul general in Jerusalem. Story behind story - which is fake - may be crazier. French CG Jlem's personal account looks, on face of it, like legit French diplo account. French foreign ministry RTs, statements, Macron highlights. Even French embassy TLV & ambo's personal (verified) accounts follow it. Pic (non generic) of CG in Sur Bahar just few days ago.