@EricTopol @kchangnyt
First, does fast frequent testing even work? Here are some data that compare UIUC with "another Big Ten University" with one time a week surveillance testing. Similar in terms of social activity/compliance & background prevalence. 2020 Epiweeks on x-axis. Second, what frequency should you test? One can do detailed simulations to take into account heterogeneity of all sorts. A simple way to get directionally correct guidance is to calculate how R is modified by NPIs that cut off transmission, given known viral dynamics.

Bravo to @stevenstrogatz for attempting the impossible task of presenting the renormalization group method for singular perturbation problems in one lecture!

Here's a short thread that he inspired me to write while taking a break from final exam grading & COVID-19 work for UIUC. I hope it answers some of Steve's questions & perhaps those of the students in the class!

(1) Introductions. @stevenstrogatz - please meet Emeritus Professor @KunihiroTeiji who wrote the nice paper that was featured in your lecture! We've met in Urbana & Kyoto.

I promised to explain what physicists or quantitative scientists could do to help in the #Covid_19 pandemic. After a week of 18 hour days, some time to explain.

Bottom line: in a country where there is limited testing, you can only see COVID-19 with #mathematics.

Please RT. Sergei Maslov & I have been using simulations of the SEIR model of epidemics, customized for #COVID-19, to make predictions for local and Chicago hospitals, university and State administrators. Even though there are inevitable uncertainties you can still get important insights.