Most interesting for me in the King's Speech was the shape of the new Labour Government's approach to industrial policy & the terms of the partnership with business at the heart of it. It's an invitation to work together but with lots of clear signalling about the terms. 1/4 The quid pro quo seems to be: We need you to invest & you need us to provide public goods. So we are prepared to be tough & if necessary unpopular to deliver a step-change in planning, housing, infrastructure, transport & skills, which you & the country desperately need... 2/4

There is something opaque & dysfunctional (at the very least) about the way this Government is approaching its assessments of the acceptability of UK arms sales to Israel. @patrickwintour has done the hard yards on getting to the bottom of this. But, to summarise things... 1/9 UK strategic export licencing criteria say the Govt will judge whether "there is a clear risk that items might be used to commit or facilitate... a serious violation of international humanitarian law". Decisions are made by the Dept for Business & Trade drawing on FCDO input 2/9

An article by @Dannythefink today, on the High Court’s finding that Michael Gove broke the law in awarding a contract to his associates in Public First, has some inaccuracies about facts & the judge's reasoning. A short thread in response. @GoodLawProject

thetimes.co.uk/article/ebaed8… The finding of “apparent bias” in awarding a contract to Gove’s & Cummings’ associates was not the judge “arguing that precious time should have been spent creating a paper trail”. It was that picking a company run by them without considering alternative providers breaks the law.

Today's screeching U-turn on allowing #Huawei access to our 5G architecture is an important moment for “Global Britain”, this Govt’s attempt to carve out a relationship with different parts of the world on terms independent of either Washington or Brussels. (Thread 1/7) There are two clear reasons for the #Huawei U-turn. The first is US economic & political power. American sanctions on chip technology made our openness towards Huawei unsustainable given our political commitment to the US alliance & the reality of global supply chains. 2/7

That sound you hear coming from Hyde Park in New York state is the sound of Franklin Delano Roosevelt turning in his grave, at the idea that Michael Gove & Dominic Cummings' reform of the civil service is inspired by FDR's "New Deal". Let's remind ourselves of what it did... 1/7 The 1st New Deal brought in unprecedented government regulation of American banks & the stock markets, to avoid a repeat of the Depression. This included clamping down on speculative activities in commercial banks (Glass-Steagall), & attacked corporate abuses rife on Wall St. 2/7

The gear-shift from "Everyone follow this clear instruction" to "Everyone make their own judgments based on these general principles" was always going to be necessary, and always difficult for Boris Johnson's Government. But 3 things have compounded the difficulty immensely (1/4) 1. The science isn't at the stage where distinctions between safe & unsafe social interactions are clear or publicly understood. We have low confidence about what behaviour is wise or reckless beyond our front doors. So unsurprisingly we feel uneasy accepting responsibility (2/4)

The #Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay just confirmed to me in his @LordsEUCom evidence that, under the Govt's proposals, Northern Irish businesses sending goods to Great Britain will have to complete export declaration forms. This revelation confirms two things.

1. The GB-NI border inside the UK will, from a commercial point of view, feel like a real border.

2. The Govt is trying to push through a vote on the deal before the text of the Withdrawal Bill is seen for a reason: the contents are alarming

Apologies for the spanner in the works, but a Brexit deal based on keeping just Northern Ireland in the EU customs union seems to directly run up counter the Government’s Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Act 2018.

As Jacob Rees-Mogg knows: because it was his amendment... This clause (Section 55, or shall we call it the Rees-Mogg backstop) is legally based on the GATT definition of a "customs territory". It can't therefore be invalidated merely by the Govt deeming that under their Brexit Deal, Northern Ireland isn't really in the EU Customs Union.

What kind of PM will Boris Johnson turn out to be?

Forget about the question of what he will do, just for a minute: here are 5 predictions about what I think will be the style of his Premiership. 1/6 1. Expect bold populist announcements on smaller issues to pepper the front pages regularly. Both because PM Boris will think he can thereby connect with voters across partisan lines, & as a way of deflecting from ongoing crises (‘Flying flags in schools’, that kind of thing) 2/6

One underappreciated effect of today's announcement by 7 MPs that they are leaving Labour: I think it has significantly raised the chances of a snap election being called in the next couple of weeks. Theresa May's #Brexit renegotiation is going precisely nowhere. She has no plan, has made no progress, & in the absence of any revised offer she is resorting to asking her MPs to back her out of loyalty. A humiliating repeat defeat awaits. Unless an election can save her...

Catching up with the BBC’s excellent history of Britain & the EU since 2010, “Inside Europe: 10 Years of Turmoil”, I spotted what I should politely call a memory lapse from Nick Clegg - on how Europe was not an issue at the founding of the Coalition. This just isn’t the case. 1/5 Clegg says in episode 1: “I said to David...that Europe should not hijack our government as it had previous governments, and he said "Absolutely”... So of all the issues we had to discuss, Europe was at that stage the most straightforward.” But he forgot about May 11, 2010. 2/5

This "Alternative Arrangements Working Group" looks suspiciously like a selected bunch of backbench Conservative MPs being provided with support by civil servants. Which of course is not allowed.

I'm sure no.10 will clarify to remove suspicion. #Brexit

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… Civil service code says civil servants must not “act in a way that is determined by party political considerations, or use official resources for party political purposes”. A group consisting only of Tory backbenchers getting served by civil servants surely violates this rule.

Throughout the #Brexit negotiations, Brexiteers & Theresa May’s Government have consistently misunderstood the EU-27: their politics & their EU theology. Yesterday they doubled down on that misunderstanding.

Here are some of the ways in which the UK just doesn’t get the EU.

1/6 1. We think Germany is the only country that matters in Europe. We fetishise Berlin. We’re blind to the daily horsetrading & lowest common denominator politics of the EU. And underestimate the immense difficulty of turning the EU supertanker around on any collective position. 2/6

Jacob Rees-Mogg's attack on Mark Carney yesterday for being biased, Canadian & wrong represents the coming together of three strands of British political culture, the combination of which is now harming the way our politics works. If you'll indulge me, a short thread... 1/5 1. Britain lauds the amateur. It's why we love Strictly, X-Factor & Bake Off. But in public life, reverence for the determined amateur has morphed into contempt for professionalism. We disparage & suspect the experts who help run our country (from Mark Carney to Olly Robbins) 2/5

1. It strikes me there’s a fascinating mini-paradox in the current fraught domestic politics surrounding Brexit, one that may prove to be quite pivotal to whether we change tack on Brexit, or change Prime Minister, in the coming weeks/months. Thanks for your indulgence... 1/9 2. Imagine you are a Brexiteer Tory MP. You’re spitting blood about Theresa May’s negotiating tactics (raising the possibility of a longer transition, contemplating the UK staying as a budget contributor in the EU customs union for 3 more years, etc.). She’s lost your trust. 2/9

THREAD: As the 10th anniversary of the Crash looms, it's time to revisit the courage & leadership that Gordon Brown showed in the first few days of October 2008. Whatever your politics, or view of GB, he was the right man for the moment. Here's my memory of what happened. 1/16 When Gordon Brown returned from a holiday in Suffolk, gloom in global markets was snowballing into a full-blown crisis. The Government was not in great shape: the Tories had a 19-pt poll lead, Cameron was polling impressively, & there were calls from Labour MPs for GB to go. 2/16

Today I start my 8-day clockwise drive round the coast of Ireland, from Dublin to Dublin. I’m excited. The schedule has been meticulously planned on tube journeys to & from work for the last 3 months (I am half German) but insider tips on unmissables very welcome. Thank you. At the glorious 10th century Round Tower at Glendalough in County Wicklow, waiting for John Cleese to poke his head out of the top window to tell me my mother was a hamster & my father smelt of elderberries.

Labour & the left need to face up fast to an uncomfortable & existential truth: Brexit will make radical, progressive politics extremely difficult in the UK. Here's why. (A short thread) 1/7 1. We will become poorer & more unequal. The Govt estimates Brexit will cause a 5-8% fall in GDP over 15 years. And the regional impact will reinforce existing inequalities, with the N East, W Mids & N Ireland worst affected (& London least affected). 2/7 independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…

There's a lot of chatter at the moment about Tory Brexiteers moving to topple Theresa May. I think it's unlikely. For five reasons. 1/6 1. This week has shown that the ERG can stamp its feet, threaten revolt, get Theresa May to abandon consistency & U-turn on crucial Brexit issues. As long as the puppet keeps moving when they choose to pull the strings, why change? 2/6

It occurs to me that we may not be viewing Theresa May’s ‘Chequers Brexit’ crisis in quite the right way. And we may, just may, be underestimating her. So here’s a short ruminatory thread, just to see what you all think. 1/6 We assumed the PM’s Chequers Summit was about achieving unity, forcing her Cabinet Brexiteers into supporting her. And that the key metric of her success or failure was whether she stopped anyone resigning (which the “lose your ministerial car” stuff just fuelled further) 2/6

THREAD: In all the froth about the less-frosty-than-expected reception of the Chancellor's Budget by his own party, the frightening scale & scope of economic decline in the years ahead is in danger of being missed. 1/6 The size of the downward revision in growth forecasts from just 9 months ago is astonishing, at a time when growth is recovering elsewhere in the world economy. As @EdConwaySky notes, these are the bleakest 5-year forecasts in modern UK economic history. 2/6