Adrian 🧪 Profile picture
Full-time founder Part-time retail trader Former Microsoft data scientist Interested in memetics, psychology, health, & longevity
Dec 23, 2021 12 tweets 4 min read
Several yrs ago decided dying was bad & wanted to avoid it & spent the last couple of years looking into how to do this

Used epidemiological studies since they have high N & measure death

Death is a good data pt since 1) it's easy to measure 2) unambiguously bad 4 u

1/many HDL is an example of an ambiguous data pt: eg niacin raises HDL but had no effect on mortality. I don't care about some random # I care abt not dying.

Executive summary:
- Cardio & maintaining elite fitness is the most impactful thing a person can do to reduce mortality

2/
Mar 3, 2021 10 tweets 5 min read
$RKT had some beautiful follow through today!

My attempt to answer the question on everyone's mind:
Is the run done?

I have a simple framework of liquidity, structure, & psychology

1/9 1. Liquidity ✅
- $RKT is @ $40
- Calls @ ~300-600% IV
3/5 OTM @ ~$3ish
This is still pretty affordable for most retail traders! Fidelity tells me req'd margin is 60% on shares. Appears to be the main stock rallying this week so 1) no RH DTCC issues 2) pure liquidity pool

2/9
Mar 1, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Updated return history for my 2 main equity accounts
- Long term positions came through for me
- Short term account underperformed which I'll be taking steps to address
- Crypto (not shown) still doing well

1/4 Image Retrospective:
- Largest ST losers from "switching to an investor" then getting sick of seeing red everyday & eventually capitulating
- Using my ST account hold both LT investments & for ST trades => Lack of separation encourages bad behavior
- Went 🏝️ w acct full of 🗑️

2/4
Feb 28, 2021 16 tweets 7 min read
0. We all want simple narratives but in reality mkts are messy (fallacies of compression & ambiguity avoidance)

This thread is my quest to understand the ~2/19-2/16 pullback & current memetic mkt dynamics vis-à-vis liquidity, structure, & psychology: 1. Extended retail/tech positioning:
- Low P/C ratio on Nasdaq => tech selloff as dealers dumped call hedges into 2/19 OpEx
- Tech selloff = scared momo & bears smelt blood causing shorts to start attacking ARK et al on 2/22
- Cathie starts FAANG rebalance to small cap
Feb 27, 2021 7 tweets 7 min read
I'm v excited about an #DeFi: an open financial system w reasonable valuations, real users, real revenue, a simple & direct model for remunerating "shareholders" & lenders, & a clear mkt beyond speculators: those w non-traditional income sources.

#ETH $AAVE $UNI $COMP $YFI
1/6
#DeFi protocols generate real revenue & distribute it directly to hodlers via coin burns which I think of as "programmatic stock buybacks". They also have known market caps.

This allows valuation via P/S ratios

2/6

theblockcrypto.com/data/decentral…