Small trade why I'm bullish for oil products since mid September for end of year & Q1-23 on just physical pov.
Until mid August inventories were quite satisfying in the countries, regions I handle but now it seems products are running out for the coming weeks with an urge to
attract new shorts, but it's becoming difficult as:
- credit lines becoming expensive for traders
- shortage of FX, strong dollars meaning EUR/other FXs deals more expensive ~ less qty available
I don't agree as it offers lots of opportunities for participants to have an edge on the market. Remember, the more the variables, the more arbitrage and opportunities. That's no wonder why 90% of hedge funds focused on commodities disappeared the
Past decade as they failed to grasp the variables of the real world (of the PT per se) because they don't have assets or agents to know what's going on with the underlying (i.e. the commodity)/an ace in the hole that have trading houses, since they've the asset w they've the info
Apr 13, 2022 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
I took few minutes to reflect on what's going on on physical market & paper market but I don't know how long it will be but will try to hv digest tweets as possible as sometimes I'm too specific 🤓
I'm writing this since I see a lot of misconceptions nowadays. Shall we begin? 🛢️
First thing first is to get a right understanding of physical market and how it works, something that most guys out there don't grasp because it's not a transparent market, players are discrete and the complexity of the market is way higher than financial markets. Soooo,
