Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OIL

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Thread: What are the Biden Administration’s choices to reduce oil and fuel prices? #OOTT #Oil

1- What has been done?
Asked OPEC members, US oil producers & refiners to increase production. All failed.

OPEC members were not interested. US producers & refiners cannot do so.
2- What are the current choices?
a- Restrict crude oil exports
b- Restrict fuel exports
c- Suspend environmental regulations temporarily
d- Suspend federal fuel tax
e- Remove sanctions on Iran & Venezuela
f- Resurrect relations with Saudi Arabia
g- Withdraw more from the SPR
3- None of the choices above can reduce shortages or lower prices meaningfully before the US mid-term elections. Only a recession would reduce fuel prices and allow for inventories to rise.

Regardless, a recession might flip both houses to republicans. Democrats are stuck!
Read 23 tweets
Re: Inflation-The Case for Bear Steepening/Why The Fed Won’t Pivot Soon. Today I had a chat with @MacroAlf about various macro themes, and I presented my case for why the Fed/Tsy might/ought to consider a BEAR STEEPENER as part of its QT arsenal. (LONG THREAD) #Inflation #Oil
I have written several Musings in the past several months on this theme and have collated them here in an ad hoc thread:
This thread attempts to structure the argument more cogently and explain why I think a Bear Steepener might be the Fed/Tsy’s best hope of engineering a “Controlled Demolition” of asset prices WITHOUT engineering a CREDIT CRISIS.
Read 43 tweets
Our new report: 'Unburnable #Carbon - 10 Years On' finds global stock markets 🏦 are financing energy companies which are sitting on 3x more #coal, #oil & #gas reserves than can be burned without breaking the 1.5°C Paris climate target carbontracker.org/reports/uburna… #CarbonBubble
🧵Despite growing urgency to tackle #ClimateChange, 'Unburnable #Carbon' reveals “embedded #emissions” in the #FossilFuel🛢️reserves of companies listed on stock exchanges – the CO2 released if they’re extracted & burned – has grown by nearly 40% since 2012 carbontracker.org/reports/uburna…
@CarolineLucas @EdwardJDavey @Ed_Miliband @MichaelEMann @CFigueres @AnnPettifor @billmckibben @martinwolf_ @AlokSharma_RDG The report warns that 90% of all known #FossilFuel🛢️reserves & resources held by companies must stay in the ground as 'unburnable #carbon' to limit global warming to 1.5°C🌡️🛑carbontracker.org/reports/uburna… #KeepItInTheGround
Read 13 tweets
🧵In 2011, our 1st report: 'Unburnable Carbon: Are the World’s Financial Markets Carrying a #CarbonBubble?' found ~80% of declared reserves of listed #FossilFuel companies were at risk of stranding, if the world stayed below 2˚C temp rise... carbontracker.org/reports/carbon… Image
Since 2011, both #emissions & #FossilFuel🛢️reserves with listed ownership have increased 📈, while the world’s climate policy ambition has strengthened post #ParisAgreement to not exceed 1.5˚C temp🌡️rise🛑carbontracker.org/reports/carbon… #CarbonBubble
Despite the global distribution of #oil, #gas & #coal mining production, financing of #FossilFuel companies is concentrated in a small number of financial centres & stock exchanges in likes of New York, London, Moscow carbontracker.org/reports/carbon… Image
Read 4 tweets
Warren Buffett is buying #oil stocks: He recently revealed purchases of $26B of $cvx and $oxy. Below an analysis of Warren Buffett's history with oil and gas investments, and why recent purchases may indicate the best is yet to come for oil and gas equities. 🧵 Image
(1/24) Buffett’s recent purchases of major stakes in oil and gas companies are an indicator of his optimism for the sector. General sentiment and positioning in oil and gas has lagged, as indicated by energy’s small portion of the overall equity market versus historical levels: Image
(2/24) And while Buffett is known to prefer investments with stable, predictable, and growing cash flows, and not cyclicals, he has intermittently owned and done well with oil & gas equities—particularly in inflationary periods much like the present: Image
Read 25 tweets
🇰🇿🇷🇺Russia suspends the shipment of Kazakh oil.

This is reported by Kommersant:

🔳The reason: 50 WWII mines were found in the water area of the Caspian oil pipeline

🔳They'll be neutralized by the end of the month

@CeyhunAsirov #oott ImageImage
🔳The #CPC #oil #pipeline system is the largest route for transporting oil from the #Caspian Sea to world markets

🔳A 1.5 thousand kilometer long main pipeline connects the fields of Western #Kazakhstan with the Black Sea #oott Image
Currently, there is no alternative for Kazakhstan, but Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan was offered to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, but it was not done because they were afraid of Russia

President Tokayev spoke at SPIEF 2 days ago & he made clear his refusal to recognise LPR/DPR independence Image
Read 4 tweets
Using past behavior is key. But being adaptive is even more if current situation is much stronger or weaker relative to past examples of cycles.
As reminder, $BTC never went trough global crisis before, so all past bear markets could have been softer than current one.
This could lead to deeper and longer lasting bear cycle this time. The leverage in space makes it difficult to say how much deeper it could go in total, as we have seen with #oil in 2020 leveraged markets can even go negative as crazy as it sounds.
This is why using common sense rationale "oh but now is more user than ever" is soft argument because it underestimates just how much damage the fear can do. Fear can shake out user base as well if it is big enough and long lasting. Some markets in past have seen that.
Read 4 tweets
1/4 After the russian invasion #oil prices skyrocketed which is very beneficial to oil refinery countries like #India. russia provides them huge discounts, selling oil for 30-35 dollars/barrel (meanwhile on the international market the price is 120 dollars/barrel)
#Banrussianoil
2/4 Most ships delivering oil are #European, #British or #Norwegian - up to 68%. 43% more were of #Greek origin. For ships delivering to India this percentage is even higher - approximately 80 %.
3/4 Since the full-scale invasion, export of refined #oil products from India rapidly grew from 580 000 to 685 000 barrels a day. A lot of it gets exported to Asian countries, but around 20% is purchased by Europe and the US.
Read 4 tweets
OPEC+ missed their #oil output target even more in May. Short thread with charts. 🧵
This was the worst month for OPEC+ since we started sharing comments on this. Highlights (all in MM bbl/d):
Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 37.60, falling short of the 40.37 quota by 2.77 MM bbl/d.

OPEC 13 production increased by 0.25, 0.15 short of their target increase
Read 7 tweets
1-5 Now it is official: President Biden to visit #SaudiArabia on July 15 and 16, during his Middle East tour.
After meeting with the Saudi leadership, he will meet with the leaders of what some experts call “the Arab NATO”: GCC leaders, Egypt, Jordan, (& Iraq). #OOTT #COM #EFT
2-5 Oil is not among top issues given the importance of security issues in the region. My guess is that Saudis are more interested in highlighting their climate change plans & efforts while showing that they actually have been increasing oil production & will continue to do so
3-5 While mega commercial deals are expected, nuclear deals will attract media attention. Saudi Arabia, in its carbon reduction efforts, needs nuclear energy. It remains to be seen if Saudis will continue to invest in the US refining sector
Read 5 tweets
"Is he going, is he not going" to the #KSA is the question during today's @WhiteHouse briefing after conflicting responses to the question from @POTUS to reporters.

"...continuing to plan for a trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia" but no announcement today, replies @PressSec. Image
"There's no trip to announce at this trip," adds @PressSec to a followup question on whether @POTUS is going to Saudi Arabia. "There's nothing to preview for you at this time" but it's wrong to say such a visit would simply be to ask for #oil.
A third question about the likely #KSA trip by @POTUS.
"There are more complexities to that issue and it's multi-faceted," replies @PressSec about the Saudis and a discussion of #oil amid high #gasprices. "I don't want to go into specifics."
Read 7 tweets
What if I told you that the Fed didn't fix inflation the last time it happened in the US? What if central planning ultimately fails, and it takes reduced taxes and regulations to get out of supply crunch driven stagflation? What if @hkuppy told you too?

adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/06/13/vol…
"The issue was that the US specifically disincentivized US producers and importers. Ronald Reagan signed an Executive Order in January of 1981 to eliminate oil price controls and then removed Jimmy Carter’s idiotic Windfall Profits Tax a few years later." #oil @AdvInCap
1/ "President Reagan’s Economic Recovery Tax Act was signed into law in August of 1981, designed to reduce tax rates and incentivize investment by rewarding risk-taking by businesses. In particular, the Accelerated Cost Recovery System served to accelerate depreciation,
Read 4 tweets
The original thread on what you are not being told about #EU sanctions on #oil has led many people to address many useful questions. The main questions are : tehnical (why is it so hard to make the transition ) , geopolitical (what we can expect) & operational (what other /1
solutions are possible). Assuming the #EU sanctions against #Russia will be maintained here is what we will happen technically, geopolitically, operationally. 1) technically speaking it is very complicated to change The original thread is here. /2
the #EU reffineries to accept non #Russian oil.There are many different types of refinery and no two refineries are exactly the same.This reflects the type of crude oil which the refinery is designed to process and the demand for specific products in particular markets.Refining/3
Read 30 tweets
If only someone had said something.

Lumber and Oil: This Inflation Is Not Transitory
June 23, 2021 @BisonInterests
bisoninterests.com/content/f/lumb…
"Why is OPEC+ holding back barrels and not cashing in on high prices? They must be bad."

OPEC+ Spare Capacity is Insufficient Amid Global Energy Crisis
October 15, 2021 @BisonInterests

bisoninterests.com/content/f/opec…
Read 4 tweets
The #RealInvestmentReport is out!
The #rally that started 3-weeks ago ended abruptly as concerns of #inflation, the #Fed and rising #recession risk spooked #investors. With the Fed set to hike #rates next week, we increased hedges and cash last week.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as…
After struggling at the 38.2% resistance level, #inflation, #recession risks, and the #Fed spooked #investors last week. #Market now retesting previous lows. Now back to short-term oversold, looking for a small bounce next week to add to #short #hedges.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
With the #Fed tightening their #balance sheet and hiking #rates, the 10-year yield is starting to top. Much like we saw in 2018, when the Fed breaks something, yields will fall quickly on the long-end (#yieldcurve inversion and #recession.)
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
Read 7 tweets
Why the #oil embargo #sanctions is a disaster for #Europe & what you are not being told. A thread. Inflation of energy prices are is at all time high. In #USA which is a large producer #fuel #gasoline are up 48 % & 100 % over a year. Situation is much worse in #EU
In fact #EU is pumping more #oil from #Russia than before the #WarInUkraine. The #sanctions decided by the #EuropeanUnion are going to be imposed gradually & touch only #oil transported by sea. But you are not being told the truth . #Energy prices are hitting hard the consumers/2
will continue to grow while #Russia will make more money off gas & exports this year by exporting less, yes you read that right, because when you reduce the offer, the prices go up. But surely our leaders know what they do & have a long term strategy./3 msn.com/en-us/money/ma…
Read 19 tweets
OPEC Sec Gen: “OPEC is running out of capacity... with the exception of 2-3 members all are maxed out ... the world needs to come to terms with this brutal fact.” From RBC Conference.

Sounds a lot like this from @BisonInterests, Oct 2021: bisoninterests.com/content/f/opec…
And sounds like "The Myth of OPEC+ Spare Capacity" is seeing further validation
bisoninterests.com/content/f/the-…
Although we didn't really need #opec to tell us this. Just look at this #oil production miss chart from last month!
Read 8 tweets
From #PepeEscobar, @telegram, 3 June 2022.

One of the ongoing debates in OilWorld: How much spare capacity remains in the system to produce oil at additional levels, globally, in case of emergency?

Answer: it’s running out & there ain’t no more!

#PeakOil is back! ⛽️ ✈️ 🚗
Let us not forget the words of the late, great Matthew Simmons (paraphrasing): “Once Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 has peaked, then the world has effectively peaked.”

Ergo, there’s no spare capacity to offset banned / boycotted Ru oil. Ergo, global oil mkt = sellers mkt now.

#PeakOil
The above piece via Pepe Escobar states that there is now declining spare capacity in #KSA 🇸🇦 due to declining investment in #oil extraction tech.

It’s actually the other way around: there’s now declining investment b/c there’s no new profitable 🇸🇦 oil to be had. #PeakOil
Read 10 tweets
Oh my! The dam holding back the disinformation waters is slowly starting to crack. And ⁦@guardian⁩ is now changing its tune.
👇🏽

Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops | Larry Elliott | The Guardian theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Axiom: withdraw product from tight market 👈🏽 get shortages. It’s as if they hadn’t thought this through.🤦🏽‍♂️

“the #sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s #oil and #gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its #war effort.”
This is the same basic epistemological framework (mindset) that had us believe in 2007 that financial markets were sound …until we found out they weren’t.

To all my former business students:
👇🏽

Just b/c something is “popular wisdom” doesn’t mean it’s the “correct wisdom.”
Read 5 tweets
Reckless monetary policy has produced the everything bubble and lead to hyper financialization of the economy. Malinvestment is the result:
Investors will be shocked by the extent of the coming deluge in bankruptcies as the cost of capital normalizes for narrative driven, valuation free, hot air balloons. Tiger Global and many other funds will close. $ARKK, rather than #oil, is likely to hit @CathieDWood $12 target.
Talk about a misallocation of resources. We have too much of this:
Read 8 tweets
For a whe now I've been pondering HOW to post about the #Russia-#Ukaine War and its global economic & Geopolitical implications.

Its not easy covering such a huge topic using twitter's 40 word limit. Crucial is "WHERE" and "WHEN" to start?

Where = the Middle East
When = 1973
It's 1973 and the young state of Israel was fighting the combined Armies of Egypt & Syria (the 4th Arab-Israeli War). Military aid from the USA however gave Israels the upper hand. Meanwhile, in Riyadh, 1500km south of Jerusalem, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia was worried. Faisal...
...didn't join other Arab states to attack Israel. But he couldn't stand idle while Israel wiped 2 Arab countries off the map. He was aware that the US the main supporter of Israel. So he & other Arab countries placed an Oil Embargo on the US & some of its allies.
It was a risky
Read 22 tweets
I see many early analyses of the EU's #oil #embargo against Russia but one crucial point that is not mentioned very often is that the package is almost certainly going to include a #shipping #insurance ban.

This might make or break the EU's oil embargo. 🧵
The details still need to be fleshed out, but if it is included, the #insuranceban is a potentially powerful tool.

95% of shipping insurance for Russian oil was carried out in Europe, primarily in London.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The insurance ban would not just affect Russian oil exports to Europe. It would affect Russian oil exports everywhere else.
Read 7 tweets
Africa should take full advantage of current elevated prices to cash in on mineral wealth: The African continent is home to substantial reserves of #copper and #cobalt (in the Democratic Republic of the Congo—DRC—Zambia, South Africa and Zimbabwe), #diamonds (in Botswana and…
Angola), #platinum (in South Africa and Zimbabwe), #uranium (in Namibia, Niger and South Africa), #gold (in Ghana, South Africa and Sudan), #iron (in South Africa), #manganese (in South Africa, Gabon and Ghana), bauxite (in Guinea), #lithium (in Zimbabwe), #coal (in South Africa
and Mozambique), #naturalgas (in Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria) and #petroleum (in Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya).
Read 8 tweets
1/16 Lots of noise on oil again at the moment.

Who wins the race between peak/falling oil consumption and supply constraints?
#oil
#XLE
2/16 I seek out information which does not confirm my thesis that oil consumption is peaking for good.
I listened to J Young on @JackFarley96 podcast this morning. The relevant part I disagree with is at 8:29 min "oil demand continues to grow at 1% annually".
3/16 I am not trying to pick on one particular investor. There are others.
Below is past global oil consumption data and current forecast for 2022 by eia.gov . The data includes the downward revision in March by 1 mil barrel by the EIA. Data via @GregorMacdonald
Read 17 tweets

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