AI feels like 1999 all over again.

Everyone senses it’s revolutionary, capital is flooding in, and optimism has temporarily suspended the laws of logic.

Yet today’s AI is less a wise oracle and more a brilliant but unreliable prodigy; fast, articulate, capable, but prone to inventing facts with confidence. Studies estimate LLMs “hallucinate” up to 27% of the time, with factual slips in nearly half of outputs. These aren’t malicious lies; they’re a feature of the design. The model is trained to produce an answer, not necessarily the right one. Think of an eager intern who always wants to impress, even if it means bluffing.

This gets worse when mastery matters. Press an AI, and it may concede one moment… then double down the next. In high-stakes contexts, that’s not quirky, it’s dangerous.

None of this means AI isn’t transformative. Productivity gains are real. Businesses are retooling. Workflows are shifting. But we can’t confuse speed with wisdom or polish with truth. The Coming Bubble

This brings us to the possibility of an AI bubble. I believe we’re beginning to mirror the 1990s dot-com frenzy, where soaring excitement collided with economic reality. If AI is truly revolutionary, a bubble isn’t just likely, it’s almost inevitable.

Why bubbles form in revolutions (the causal chain):

Narrative outruns numbers → CapEx outruns ROI → Valuations outrun cash flows.

Compute buildouts, power contracts, model training, and headcount scale fast; adoption, reliability, and unit economics mature slower. That mismatch is the bubble’s fuel.

What the next 24–36 months often look like (playbook):

Phase 1 — Installation Frenzy (0–12 months): real productivity wins + parabolic spend; “AI pivot” press releases everywhere; top-line “AI contribution” headlines, thin detail on profits.

Phase 2 — Compression (6–24 months): costs outpace returns, model performance converges, pricing pressure appears, projects slip, margins compress; first guidance cuts; consolidation begins.

Phase 3 — Aftermath (18–36 months): the weak are washed out; survivors re-price, standards emerge, unit economics finally improve, and the next durable leg starts.

Leading indicators of a bubble:

-Parabolic charts + “this time is different” narratives.
-CapEx hockey-sticking while gross profit lags.
-Inference costs stubborn vs. willingness-to-pay.
-Shelfware: pilots “successful,” production “pending.”
-Vendor sprawl + “prompt-washing” in earnings calls.
-Power/compute bottlenecks used to justify any price.

Exhaustion signals (don’t be the bagholder):

-Price keeps rising while KPIs stagnate (users/ARPU/churn).

-Companies pivot to vanity metrics (“AI interactions”).

-Guidance cut + “temporary headwinds” blamed.

-Insiders dump, retail floods in, media tone flips euphoric.

Thesis in one line:

Revolutions compound over decades, but the first ROI wave rarely matches the first CapEx wave; that gap is the bubble.

We’ll see genuine short-term gains that fuel the mania. But when costs outpace returns, the correction arrives. Just as the internet endured a bust before maturing, AI will likely follow the same arc, shakeout first, then durable growth.

This could be the most important trading-related post you'll ever read:

The 6 Stages of a Trader

Understanding these stages can show you where you are now and where you need to be.
(Thread👇) Stage 1: The Mystification Stage

At first, charts appear as random squiggles. You don’t grasp market structure or how the economy impacts prices. Everything feels like magic. Over time and with study, the chaos begins to reveal a pattern.

"6 Stages Of A Trader"

If we are to become great traders, we will experience some variation of all six of these stages.

Being aware of these stages can help you identify where you are now and where you need to eventually be.

(Which stage are you currently at?)

Stage One of the journey to become a Master Trader:

The Mystification Stage

This is where the neophyte trader begins.

He has little or no understanding of market structure. He has no concept of the interrelationship among markets, much less between markets and the economy.

Price charts are a meaningless mish-mash of colored lines and squiggles that look more like a painting from the MOMA than anything that contains information.

Anyone who can make even a guess about price direction based on this tangle must be using black magic, or voodoo.

However, as one begins to observe, read, and study, the mess may begin to resolve itself into something that may make sense. Sort of... 😉 Stage Two of the journey to become a Master Trader:

The Hot Pot Stage

You scan the markets every day. After a while (sometimes a good long while), you notice a particular phenomenon that appears regularly and seems to "work" pretty well.

You focus on this pattern. You begin to find more and more instances of it, and all of them work! Your confidence in the pattern grows, and you decide to take it the next time it appears. You take it, and almost immediately your stop is hit, and you're underwater for the total amount of your stop-loss.

So, you back off and study this pattern further. The very next time it appears, it works. And again. And yet again. So you decide to try again, and you take the full hit on your stop-loss.

Practically everyone goes through this, but few understand this is all part of the win-lose cycle.

They do not yet understand that loss is an inevitable part of any system, strategy, method, or other approach; there is no such thing as a 100% win approach.

When they gauge the success of a particular pattern or setup, they get caught up in the win cycle. They don't wait for the "lose" cycle to see how long it lasts or what the win/lose pattern is.

Instead, they keep touching the pot and getting burned, never understanding that it's not the pot (pattern/setup) that's the problem but their failure to understand that it's the heat from the stove (the market) that they're paying no attention to whatsoever.

So, instead of trying to understand the nature of thermal transfer (the market), they avoid the pot (the pattern), moving on to another pattern/setup without bothering to find out whether or not the stove is on.

"6 Stages Of A Trader"

If we are to become great traders, we will experience some variation of all six of these stages.

Being aware of these stages can help you identify where you are now and where you need to eventually be.

(Which stage are you currently at?)

Stage One: The Mystification Stage

This is where the neophyte trader begins.

He has little or no understanding of market structure. He has no concept of the interrelationship among markets, much less between markets and the economy.

Price charts are a meaningless mish-mash of colored lines and squiggles that look more like a painting from the MOMA than anything that contains information.

Anyone who can make even a guess about price direction based on this tangle must be using black magic, or voodoo.

However, as one begins to observe, read, and study, the mess may begin to resolve itself into something that may make sense. Sort of... 😉 Stage Two: The Hot Pot Stage

You scan the markets every day. After a while (sometimes a good long while), you notice a particular phenomenon that appears regularly and seems to "work" pretty well.

You focus on this pattern. You begin to find more and more instances of it, and all of them work! Your confidence in the pattern grows, and you decide to take it the next time it appears. You take it, and almost immediately your stop is hit, and you're underwater for the total amount of your stop-loss.

So, you back off and study this pattern further. The very next time it appears, it works. And again. And yet again. So you decide to try again, and you take the full hit on your stop-loss.

Practically everyone goes through this, but few understand this is all part of the win-lose cycle.

They do not yet understand that loss is an inevitable part of any system, strategy, method, or other approach; there is no such thing as a 100% win approach.

When they gauge the success of a particular pattern or setup, they get caught up in the win cycle. They don't wait for the "lose" cycle to see how long it lasts or what the win/lose pattern is.

Instead, they keep touching the pot and getting burned, never understanding that it's not the pot (pattern/setup) that's the problem but their failure to understand that it's the heat from the stove (the market) that they're paying no attention to whatsoever.

So, instead of trying to understand the nature of thermal transfer (the market), they avoid the pot (the pattern), moving on to another pattern/setup without bothering to find out whether or not the stove is on.

So, you want to be a Technical Trader? 👇👇👇

1. Education & Knowledge:

Learn to understand the markets, various trading instruments, and methodologies. However, your ultimate goal must be Mastery. 2. Trading Plan:

Develop a comprehensive trading plan outlining your strategies, goals, risk tolerance, and evaluation criteria.

"6 Stages Of A Trader"

If we are to become a great trader we will go through some variation of all 6 of these stages.

Being aware of these stages can help you identify where you are now and where you need to eventually be.

(Which stage are you currently at?)

Stage One: The Mystification Stage

This is where the neophyte trader begins.

He has little or no understanding of market structure. He has no concept of the interrelationship among markets, much less between markets and the economy.

Price charts are a meaningless mish-mash of colored lines and squiggles that look more like a painting from the MOMA than anything that contains information. Anyone who can make even a guess about price direction based on this tangle must be using black magic, or voodoo.

However, as one begins to observe, read, study, the mess may begin to resolve itself into something that may make sense. Sort of... 😉 Stage Two: The Hot Pot Stage

You scan the markets every day. After a while (sometimes a good long while), you notice a particular phenomenon which pops up regularly and seems to "work" pretty well.

You focus on this pattern. You begin to find more and more instances of it and all of them work! Your confidence in the pattern grows and you decide to take it the very next time it appears. You take it, and almost immediately your stop is hit, and you're underwater for the total amount of your stop-loss.

So you back off and study this pattern further. And the very next time it appears, it works. And again. And yet again. So you decide to try again. And you take the full hit on your stoploss.

Practically everyone goes through this, but few understand that this is all part of the win-lose cycle.

They do not yet understand that loss is an inevitable part of any system/strategy/method/what have you, that is, there is no such thing as a 100% win approach.

When they gauge the success of a particular pattern or setup, they get caught up in the win cycle. They don't wait for the "lose" cycle to see how long it lasts or what the win/lose pattern is.

Instead, they keep touching the pot and getting burned, never understanding that it's not the pot (pattern/setup) that's the problem, but a failure on their part to understand that it's the heat from the stove (the market) that they're paying no attention to whatsoever.

So instead of trying to understand the nature of thermal transfer (the market), they avoid the pot (the pattern), moving on to another pattern/setup without bothering to find out whether or not the stove is on.

Envy is the root of all modern evils.

THEY want you to believe that GREED runs the world.

In truth, it's ENVY that runs the world today and envy is far worse

Envy as defined by Immanuel Kant👇 Since the beginning of time every wise piece of literature warned about envy.

The Bible

“A heart at peace gives life to the body, but envy rots the bones”

Greek philosopher Democritussaid, a free and peaceful society would actively seek to discourage envy.

#BTC

It’s always fun to listen to financial geniuses talk about #Bitcoin.

They are so close and just don’t get it. They absolutely KNOW that money as we know it is dying & on life support.

Dalio knows we need a replacement, but wants an instant replacement w/ no volatility. Growing from zero to enormous MUST be volatile

This is the process of shaking out long-term weak hands & transferring them to strong hands

#BTC must bubble, then it digests the bubble & repeats

This is why I give @saylor credit for seeing the light when most rich people can’t

WYCKOFF CLIFF NOTES (Technical Analysis detective work. Learn to study the footprints)

Price moves in waves, not a straight line.

Each major trend is made of many smaller uptrends and downtrends.

When one wave ends, another begins in the opposite direction. As an example, when the market is in the distribution phase. A ceiling has formed and large traders are offloading stock/coin they previously purchased.

This attracts last-minute greedy buyers and informed traders looking to sell.

TRADING RULES

Small Losses only

Avoid big losses at all costs. The higher your % loss, the higher the % gain you need to get your money back. On a 50% loss, you need a 100% gain to break even

Control Risk

Know your exit criteria before you enter a trade. Exit as soon as the reason for your entry is not valid anymore

Liquid Assets

Liquid assets are easier to exit. As a matter of fact, technical analysis is more reliable w/ highly liquid assets. Large volume makes it much more difficult to manipulate an asset

If you have been around long enough, you realize that most 'crises' are created b/c a crisis is an excellent opportunity for those w/ hidden agendas.

These were the crisis the Government created to program their Sheep over the years. Now they create one every few months. In the 1970's they said we were headed to another ice age(Global Cooling).

They switched that to Global Warming, where we soon wouldn't see much snow & the Ice caps would be gone by 2013.

When enough people noticed that it was colder than ever, they changed it to Global Warming

Many popular people on CT are those that have been showing you BS price models, BS math models, and BS technical analysis

They have been displaying Bull porn from the top down & you have rewarded them for it

Let Michael Platt explain to you why you should be very leary of any smart-sounding analyst

"When I hire a trader, I want market makers, people who know that anything can happen. The type of guy I don’t want is an analyst who has never traded – the type of person who does a calculation on a computer,

Understanding the 14 stages of Investor Psychology

Optimism – A positive outlook encourages us about the future, leading us to buy assets

Excitement – Having seen some of our initial ideas work, we begin considering what our market success could allow us to accomplish. Thrill – At this point, we cannot believe our success and begin to comment on how smart we are

Euphoria – This marks the point of maximum financial risk. Having seen every decision result in quick, easy profits, we begin to ignore risk and expect every trade to become profitable

TRADING RULES

Small Losses only

Avoid big losses at all costs. The higher your % loss, the higher the % gain you need to get your money back. On a 50% loss, you need a 100% gain to break even

Control Risk

Know your exit criteria before you enter a trade. Exit as soon as the reason for your entry is not valid anymore

Liquid Assets

Liquid assets are easier to exit. As a matter of fact, technical analysis is more reliable w/ highly liquid assets. Large volume makes it much more difficult to manipulate an asset

True Vibration Signals

These are 3 different settings, all of which are using an m15 trigger chart (entry) w/ an H1 anchor (Directional Bias)

Traders interested in no-cost access to this tool

1⃣Like
2⃣Retweet
3⃣DM me for details (expect response delays) One unique feature about the "Training wheels" setting that talented traders will love is that it allows you to utilize a much Higher TF Anchor(Directional Bias)

This is M15 to H12. Normally, you would be chopped to bits using this spread. Instead, we are catching massive moves.

“Once a gov't is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of opposition, the only one way to go is down the path of increasingly repressive measures until it becomes a source of terror to all its citizens & creates a country where everyone lives in fear.”

-Harry Truman “If large numbers of people believe in freedom of speech, there will be freedom of speech, even if the law forbids it. But if public opinion is sluggish, inconvenient minorities will be persecuted, even if laws exist to protect them.”

-George Orwell

#BTC RSI Weekly

#Bitcoin managed to complete its typical #CryptoWinter Full reset on the Weekly Scale RSI

RSI Weekly hit 25 in revisiting a previous top that carried a reading of 90 on the weekly scale at that time

We can see some Bull Divs have shown up recently as well #BTC Weekly

Of course, we have seen this before with #Bitcoin as it has made a habit out of resetting 90+ to sub-30 on the weekly scale

TRADING RULES

Small Losses only

Avoid big losses at all costs. The higher your % loss, the higher the % gain you need to get your money back. On a 50% loss, you need a 100% gain to break even

Control Risk

Know your exit criteria before you enter a trade. Exit as soon as the reason for your entry is not valid anymore

Liquid Assets

Liquid assets are easier to exit. As a matter of fact, technical analysis is more reliable w/ highly liquid assets. Large volume makes it much more difficult to manipulate an asset

Assets are only cheap if they are going higher after you buy them

Never trust a person more than the market. Ppl lie, the markets dont

Controlling losers is a must; let winners run out of control

Simplicity in trading demonstrates wisdom. Complexity is a sign of inexperience Have loyalty to your family, your dog, your team. But, never to a trade

Emotional traders want to give the disciplined traders their money

Trends have counter-trends to shake the weak hands out of the market

To beat the market, you must have an edge.

175k followers!

While I don't make follower growth a primary focus, I do greatly appreciate those that are interested in following me

I'll continue to share this passion of mine while we all continue on our trading/investment journey together

We win or we learn

Thank you! 🙏 Improve your feed by Following those that I enjoy for a variety of reasons (Talented traders, legends, comedians, & some amazing fades)

@Nebraskangooner

@IncomeSharks

@CastilloTrading

@CryptoWarrior01

@im_goomba

@crypto_birb

@scottmelker

@PeterLBrandt

@tradingroomapp

The True Vibration updates and Signals indicator went live this week

Meanwhile... This is what has been going on

$FTM True Vibration Signals on M5, M10, M15, H1
Traders interested in no-cost access to this tool

1⃣Like
2⃣Retweet
3⃣DM me for details (expect response delays) $ZIL H1, M30 $ONE M5, M15 True Vibration Signals

I have added several strategies that provide significant EDGE to Work smarter, not harder

Traders interested in no-cost access to this tool

1⃣Like
2⃣Retweet
3⃣DM me for details (expect response delays)