The main takeaways I think other countries should have when looking at the Delta surge in Israel:
1. High vax rate is super important. Even though the number of cases in the Delta surge in Israel was as high as Jan 2021, CHR+CFR was much lower than in the pre-vaccine surges
>>>

https://twitter.com/_lewisy/status/1430629408386306052

2. Vaccine effectiveness is still high for severe COVID, even after 6 months from vax:
94% effective for ages 40-59
86% effective for 60+
Vaccine effectiveness for infection is lower, around 55%. This leads to the next point:
>>>

Preprint by @IsraelMOH + @TechnionLive that was posted today clarifies some of the loose ends regarding the waning immunity data coming out of Israel during the past few weeks.
Bottom line is that the data from Israel pretty much agrees with UK + US data >>>

https://twitter.com/_lewisy/status/1430202505011548164

* VE for infection wanes over time, and is ~50-60% after 6 months.
* VE for severe disease is **still high** after 6 months - 94% for ages 40-59, 86% for 60+.
>>>

💉🦠Vaccine effectiveness (VE) in Israel still high:
There has been much discussion recently regarding current estimate of VE - raw numbers normalised naively based on cases and national vax% seem to imply that for older age groups, VE is low or even 0🧵

https://twitter.com/AArgoetti/status/1417235991987949568

This normalisation uses the national avg for vax%, assuming that the cases come from an even distribution from the total population.
BUT -
The distribution of cases since June doesn't represent the entire population; it is skewed towards higher SES cities with higher vax%>>>

Latest update from Singapore MoH regarding cases in the past 28d, by vax status:
* 386 total cases
* 97 of those in fully vaccinated
* 0 fully vaccinated requiring O2 / ICU / death!
Some thoughts based on a quick and dirty analysis of these numbers>>>
bit.ly/2VOQNBb Singapore is interesting to follow regarding possible #Delta effect:
* Delta became the dominant strain there in April
* Vaccinations are exclusively w/ mRNA
* Vaccines have mostly been given since April, negating potential "immunity decline" confounders

💉Israel #COVID19 update, week ending June 6th:

- 105 total cases
- 74 of those in the unvaccinated pop (3,835,144 people) = 1.93 cases per 100k.
- 3 in partially vaccinated (342,620) = 0.88 per 100k.
- 28 in fully* vaccinated (5,113,236) = 0.55 per 100k.

*14d post 2nd

short🧵 * In Israel still extremely low COVID numbers without no evidence of resurgence; contrasts with UK data
* No restrictions - everything is open. Most people not masking indoors
* UK & Israel both with very high vaccination rates, so why are we seeing different disease dynamics?

💉Israel #COVID19 update for week ending April 17th:

- 993 total cases
- 812 of those in the unvaccinated pop (3,947,127 people) = 20.57 cases per 100k.
- 50 in partially vaccinated (520,743) = 9.6 per 100k.
- 131 in fully* vaccinated (4,823,130) = 2.7 per 100k.

*14d post 2nd Schools, restaurants, bars, etc all open.
Masks only in indoor public settings

Excited to see our paper published by @CDCMMWR!
Great collaboration with the amazing @EhudR4 🙏
We showed the population-level effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in preventing severe disease requiring mechanical ventilation.
Short explainer👇
1/n
bit.ly/MMWR22621 We analysed the publicly available COVID-19 vaccination and cases data from Israel, and compared the daily number of ventilated patients in the highly vaccinated >70 age group with the under-50 age group (low vaccine coverage).
2/n

#COVID in Israel, thread with some possible explanations.
Within the last 4wks:
1. Massive vaccination campaign, with ~80% of the >60 population vaccinated.
2. A third national lockdown declared.
3. Huge surge in cases and deaths.
@EricTopol and others ask "what is going on?"
1/5 The question being, why have we yet to see a positive effect of both these dramatic measures?
Here are some important points to consider in this regard.
1. The vaccine campaign (correctly) targeted at-risk individuals, mainly the over-60 population.
2/5