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Adam Isacson Profile picture
Adam Isacson
@adam_wola
bsky: @adamisacson.com masto: @adam@elefanti.co Defense, security, borders, and migration at @WOLA_org. Positions are not necessarily WOLA's consensus view.
Dec 13 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
I'm not a big Biden defender either. But we need to address this notion that Biden somehow swung the door open to migrants.

He kept in place the harshest ban on asylum ever: Title 42. It just didn't deter a migrant population that changed dramatically. 1/15 During Donald Trump’s term, 90+% of migrants were from Mexico and Central America (blue, green, brown, yellow). If you were a migrant from those countries, your probability of being released into the US after apprehension didn’t change much after Biden’s inauguration. 2/15 Image
Aug 6 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Tim Walz, not a foreign policy guy, didn't have a deep record on Latin America as a member of Congress. But he voted against the #Colombia and #Peru free trade agreements, and co-sponsored a 2009 resolution condemning the coup in #Honduras. Colombia vote:

Peru vote:

Honduras sponsors: clerk.house.gov/Votes/2011781?…
congress.gov/congressional-…
congress.gov/bill/111th-con…
Dec 19, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
It's so perplexing that people are convinced that Title 42 slowed migration, and that its lifting will be a major change.

Here's what happened to single-adult migrant encounters at the US-Mexico border after Title 42 went into effect. Title 42 did not similarly increase child and family migration over what came before. But it didn't reduce it, either.
Jun 29, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
After about 2 1/2 years, the commander of #Colombia’s army, Gen. Eduardo Zapateiro, is leaving. This is not a bad thing.

elespectador.com/judicial/me-de…

His exit is long overdue. A 7-tweet thread: Why overdue? I can't speak to the corruption allegations @petrogustavo hints at here, in a recent interview with @estoescambio.

Rather, Gen. Zapateiro has been most problematic because of his public messaging on human rights and civil-military relations.

cambiocolombia.com/articulo/poder…
Jun 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
In the Cancún #Mexico airport, @INAMI_mx agents pulled prominent #Colombia journalist @SebastianForerr aside and prevented him from entering the country.

A plainclothes US @CBP officer was right there with the Mexican agents. He canceled Forero’s valid US visa with black marker: So next time you hear @lopezobrador_ go on about #Mexico's sovereignty and US imperialism, recall that his government has invited US agents into Mexico's international airports to screen passengers.
Jun 3, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Calling Rodolfo Hernández the “Trump of #Colombia” seems off to me. Here, I see more parallels with all-over-the-map populists like AMLO or Bukele. And if Hernández wins, US-Colombian relations could resemble current relations with Mexico or El Salvador…

responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/06/03/how… …by which I mean: the Biden administration distances itself from the president and civilian leadership, even as it pursues the closest possible military-to-military relationship. Which isn't great.
Jun 2, 2022 • 8 tweets • 8 min read
A brief thread about migration trends in #Mexico, based on Mexican government data updated through April, and through May for asylum seekers.

5 months into 2022, Mexico has already received its 3rd-highest annual total of asylum requests. At this pace 2022 will be 2d after 2021. New asylum applications in #Mexico have declined for two consecutive months, though.

This is from the latest summary by Mexico's refugee agency @comar_sg, posted today: gob.mx/comar/articulo…
May 17, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Thank you. Weird blowup of my profile pic aside, I'd be glad to talk about all of these. “Over 750k KNOWN gotaways”

Over what time period? The CBP budget request says USBP apprehended or turned back 82.6% last year. Getting to 90% would require huge $.

If got-aways are 750K, then the total migrant number would be over 4 million, plus POEs??

dhs.gov/sites/default/… Image
May 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Come on. I've visited 4 of Border Patrol's 9 US-Mexico border sectors since March, and there's just no "disaster zone."

Border communities are going about their lives completely unaffected by the elevated number of migrants, half of whom are being expelled anyway. Your workload is elevated if you work at a shelter, practice asylum law, or recover remains of migrants who've fallen off the border wall, drowned, or dehydrated.

Border Patrol agents, too, are busy processing asylum—a job that doesn't really require a uniform, gun, or badge.
Sep 22, 2021 • 35 tweets • 8 min read
0/33 Here's a late-night thread about the border right now. This is me talking, not a deliberated WOLA consensus. I have blind spots—we all do—and welcome good-faith corrections.

tl;dr: Even today's high levels of family and asylum-seeking migration are manageable without drama. 1/33 Many Democrats, including those who support immigration reform, see images like this one and worry. They see themselves losing ground to the Greg Abbotts and Ted Cruzes. Even among Latino constituents who had voted reliably Democratic.

Jun 23, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
When @VP Harris visits the US-Mexico border at El Paso on Friday, she'll be in a city with a rich, vibrant, experienced community of experts, advocates, and humanitarians. I hope she gets to talk with them.

Here are a few I've had the great pleasure to know. 1/11 .@LasAmericasIAC is an incredibly active organization that represents and offers affordable legal advice to asylum seekers, among other human rights advocacy. Many of its clients have been subject to "Remain in Mexico" and Title 42 expulsions. 2/11
May 12, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Border Patrol's "encounters" with single adult migrants increased 12% from March to April. (This includes double counting because of repeat crossers.)

That's the largest March-to-April increase in adult migrants on this chart.

But wait: … … Border Patrol's "encounters" with family and child migrants _decreased_ 10% from March to April.

That's the largest March-to-April drop in child and family migrants on this chart.
May 10, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Watch Cali #Colombia. An operation is being planned. Will it be rights-respecting? Look at this statement from President Duque's party: Very troubling to see @CRIC_Cauca singled out here. Cauca's indigenous organizations don't have the capacity to blockade a city of > 2 million people. Security forces must not target them like terrorists or armed groups. They don't even carry weapons—just ceremonial staffs.
May 8, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Here's one more nerdy thread with the latest unaccompanied migrant children numbers at the border, because some of them are striking.

The weekly average of newly arrived non-Mexican children is down to 387 per day. Reduced 102/day in the past 5 weeks. The number of kids in Border Patrol holding facilities has been between 600 and 800 over a week. It's been reported that the average stay in BP custody is now "within a day" (wsj.com/articles/u-s-r…).
May 7, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
2 images make clear why the US must suspend sales of equipment/services to #Colombia's ESMAD riot police unit.

Left: of 37 protest-related deaths, @indepaz has named likely perpetrator in 21 cases. ESMAD is 15 of the 21.

Right: Tear gas canister from ESMAD—made in Pennsylvania. Sources for images:

@Indepaz running list of protest-related deaths: indepaz.org.co/victimas-de-vi…

Tear gas canister: tweet from @InvisiblesMuros:
May 5, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Not much progress since Sunday on the unaccompanied child situation at the US-Mexico border. Not much movement in either direction, week over week. Image Slight increase in children in CBP's holding facilities, and a slight decrease in children in the HHS Office of Refugee Resettlement's network of shelters. ImageImage
Apr 27, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
There are now four-fifths fewer unaccompanied children stuck in Border Patrol's holding facilities than there were a month ago. Source docs:
Apr 27, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
In the early 2010s, the US spent tens of millions helping #Guatemala create border task forces. They ended up misusing aid. Last time I asked a US official, they said the TFs barely existed anymore.

So this plan is "Groundhog Day" combined with "Memento": apnews.com/article/health… At these earlier task forces' height, in 2015, @RANDCorporation published a pretty scathing report finding "major problems that prevent IATF Tecún Umán from conducting autonomous operations."

rand.org/pubs/research_…
Apr 27, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
The armed group threatening environmental leader Jani Silva in Putumayo, #Colombia "has relations with the oil company, according to the armed group itself, who has said so in meetings to which the communities have been summoned," reports @parescolombia:

pares.com.co/2021/04/26/la-… The oil company facing these serious allegations is Geopark/Amerisur, with which, inexplicably, the @UNDP is partnering in Putumayo.

Apr 9, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/6 A quick update with data about the 20,596 children in US government custody, as of April 7, who had arrived at the US-Mexico border without a parent or guardian.

Decreasing: those being newly apprehended by Border Patrol (other than a strangely high number on Tuesday). 2/6 Decreasing: the population of unaccompanied kids in CBP's inadequate holding facilities. They are being moved out into (mostly temporary/emergency) Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) shelters.
Apr 8, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In March, Border Patrol encountered:

46 citizens of Mexico for every 100,000 Mexican citizens living in Mexico
146 citizens of El Salvador for every 100K in El Salvador
194 citizens of Guatemala for every 100K in Guatemala
429 citizens of Honduras for every 100K in Honduras So yes, 1 in every 233 Hondurans may have been encountered at the US-Mexico border in 1 month.