Husband. Daddy of three. Director of Civitas Center for Public Integrity at @JohnLockeNC
Tweets are my own. RT ≠ agree. I mute @$$hats of all political stripes
Nov 9 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
1/6 I wrote on Friday about how Allison Riggs is unlikely to overcome her 8000-vote deficit (now 7641) against Jefferson Griffin in the North Carolina Supreme Court race.
I still believe that, but a couple of things will make it more interesting. #ncpol
johnlocke.org/riggs-is-unlik…2/6 First, Wake County has a little over 3,000 absentee ballots that came in on election day to count. Absentee ballots from Wake have been breaking for Riggs 3-to-1, so she could gain about 2,400 votes on him when they are counted. #ncpol
1/🧵
A new Carolina Journal/Cygnal poll came out Friday covering several #ncpol statewide races.
In the presidential race, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 47.2-44.1%
carolinajournal.com/polls/with-har… 2/ Trump's 3.1% margin in North Carolina almost perfectly matches his 3.2% margin in the Real Clear Politics polling average for the state. That average includes polling from a crosssection of polls, including from D and R-leaning organizations. #ncpol
1/15
According to a report by WRAL, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is targeting 14 North Carolina General Assembly races.
In this thread, I will provide the Civitas Partisan Index rating for all 14 districts. You might want to unroll it.
cbs17.com/news/capitol-r…
2/15
North Carolina Senate District 7, in New Hanover County, is rated R+2 (lean Republican) in the Civitas Partisan Index. #ncpol
Democrat David Hill, Republican Michael Lee (inc), Libertarian John Evans
1/4 I heard that the Insider carried an article from the Daily Advance saying that John Locke wrote that Valerie Jordan could claim Warren County residency due to her government service.@dailyadvance@ncinsider#ncpol
"Jordan could claim to maintain a Warren County residency even though she lives in Raleigh under GS 163-57(9) by claiming she only lives in Raleigh due to her service in the state government."
Aug 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/4 The Valerie Jordan residency mess got me thinking about the Mark Meadows residency mess from earlier this year. A look at voting records finds a new set of problems. #ncpol
2/4 A search using the State Board Elections voter lookup tool (voting records are public) finds removed registrations of three people named "Mark Randell Meadows" #ncpol
1/6 We have the second relatively bad week in a row for Democrats in #ncpol voter registration. Changes for this week:
Dem: +554
Rep: +1,219
Lib: +110
Una: +3,097
carolinaelections.com/voterregistrat…2/6 Unaffiliated registrations are now in positive territory for the first time since list maintenance earlier this year. Here are the #ncpol registration changes for 2021 so far:
Dem: -125,837
Rep: -66,548
Lib: +529
Una: +1,935 johnlocke.org/nearly-400000-…
Dec 3, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Registration changes for #ncpol (1/1/2021 to 11/27/2021)
Dem: 35.5% to 34.74% (-0.76%)
Rep: 30.45% to 30.37% (-0.08%)
Lib: 0.64% to 0.66% (+0.02%)
Una: 33.3% to 34.23% (+0.93%)
Change: -126k Dem, -68K Rep, -1K una
7,177,816 registrations as of 11/27/2021
1/3 About the latest electoral mess in Robeson County.
The State Board of Elections says that the Robeson BOE found 1,951 early voting ballots that had not been uploaded to the state board's results data. #ncpol#Election2020results@NCCivitas
ncsbe.gov/news/press-rel…2/3 The voting site in question is Pembroke Fire Department. A look at VoteTracker finds 1,947 votes there (not sure why there is a four-ballot difference). #ncpol
Democratic voters at that site outnumber Republicans about 3-to-1.
1/3
The NCSC Chief justice candidates are about to lose votes in Washington County. The county BOE counted most mail ballots twice. #ncpol
674 mail ballots were accepted in Washington County through election day.
carolinaelections.com/votetracker/ge…2/3
But...
"Washington County inadvertently duplicated its absentee by mail data in the election night reporting system, resulting in two records for every by-mail vote in the unofficial results reported on election night. ncsbe.gov/news/press-rel…
