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Austin Schmidt Profile picture
Austin Schmidt
@aschmidt2930
Into macro, mining, and energy.
Stephen Leung Profile picture 1 subscribed
May 1, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
The #silver market has fundamentally changed due to the Mexican gov's anti-mining rules.

First, remember that according to the @SilverInstitute, silver is already in a 24% supply deficit: Image So where does supply come from? Mexico. Image
Feb 27, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
As #silver sentiment collapses again and the equities have been left for dead, let's look at the big picture.

#silver is a supply deficit play. 3 things to know:

1) 73% of mined silver is a byproduct of copper/zinc/lead/gold. CapEx is declining in 2023. /1 In other words, the companies producing silver don't care about silver. There won't be a supply response to higher silver demand.

Also, there are very few primary silver miners as AISC is about $20 and high-quality deposits are very rare. /2
Oct 3, 2022 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
Time for an update on how the energy crisis is driving a new #silver bull market. For the full story, check out my original thread below.

Let's start with the supply side 👇 Zinc, Lead, and Copper smelting are very energy intensive. Energy makes up 40% of operational costs. Eurometrix estimates over 50% of capacity is already offline in Europe.

And as @LukeGromen points out, this is a BIG deal.

Sep 25, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
When #silver $slv miners bottom, how hard will the bounce back be? A comment by @LawrenceLepard in a space last night made me dive in a little further. Let's start with the 2020 crash: *Note: I used Pan American Silver (PaaS) as many silver ETFs and other top current names weren't nearly as established across both time periods. Data is similar throughout the sector.

PaaS bottomed on 3/20/2020. Here's the price action in the following days:
Sep 14, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Last weekend, I covered why the energy crisis is driving an accelerating #silver supply-demand imbalance. Now, let’s take a shot at the WHEN question by taking a quick look at charts from the bears of the past, with the idea they may be prologue. Note: I do NOT think I can time this with any precision. If my flip to bullishness in late August was the bottom, luck will have played a big factor. I have zero qualifications. I just like commodity markets. To the charts! 👇
Sep 10, 2022 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
I've never been more excited about #silver. And it has nothing to do with the Fed or the USD. It's a story of the #oil and #gas crisis and it's 2nd/3rd order effects.

Let's start with the supply side. 73% of silver is a byproduct of Zinc, Copper, Lead, and Gold. Smelting is energy intensive. According to @Eurometaux, half of the EU's Zinc output has already been shut off. As Zinc's smelting process separates the Silver from the ore, this is decreasing supply.

Since only 27% of Silver supply is primary,