Here are some estimates of R (how fast this is growing or shrinking)
In brief, it has stopped going up, which is good, and it's likely to stay close to 1 for the next while - so case numbers will fall very slowly.
Despite much pointless haranguing, case rates in Donegal are falling steadily.
These are rates over 14 days.
#COVID19 is rising all over Ireland and has been rising at about the same rate for many weeks.
Left to itself we will have 1,000 cases a day in November, and 4,000 a day for Christmas.
The health service will melt, and many people will die. @ISAGCOVID19
We should perhaps have gone to level 4 on September 1st.
After some drama we've now gone to Level 3 which may help to stabilize the situation, but is unlikely to make it better.
We have two choices, I think. 1) Living with the virus 2) Eliminating the virus
This is not a good answer to what is a very reasonable question.
The key argument is that we can swap high contacts in adults, for very low contacts in adults and high contacts in kids in school.
That’s not true.
1/ The report is utterly damming of the NPH Development Board
Did not challenge the executives
Left crucial decisions to their design team (contractors)
Signed off on a flawed business case
Failed to oversee risk registers
The NPHDB had 19 staff for a €1 billion project
Had a process driven by a desire for speed
Were given a tendering process (2 stage) which is *known* to be risky
Took too long to set up their executive