Can #Russia Operate Without SWIFT?

Back in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, exclusion from SWIFT was touted as a possible extension to the sanctions. Former Russia Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin estimated then that losing SWIFT access could cost the Russian economy 5% of GDP. Since then, Russia has been working on its own domestic system for financial communication (SPFS). By February 2020, there were 400 Russian banks on SPFS, more than that on SWIFT. Further, SPFS handled 20% of all Russian domestic financial communications at that time.

According to EBA data on credit exposure by bank, as of June 2021, European banks have relatively low exposure to Russian credit, and no exposure to the Russian sovereign.

By value, the European banks most exposed to Russian credit are Société Générale SA, which has €16.5bn... ...UniCredit SpA (UCG) which has €14.6bn, and Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI) which has almost €14bn.

Among the smaller lenders, Hungarian bank OTP has €2.2bn, and Cyprus-based Russian Commercial Bank (RCB) has €230mn.

Following up from our second webinar with Russian foreign policy expert @SamRamani2, here are some key takeaway points you need to know on the #Ukraine crisis:

[1] What is the Goal?
The goal, based on previous Putin comments... ...seems to be regime-change. ‘De-nazification’ and ‘de-militarisation’ have been stated as goals, which can be translated to enforced neutrality, or more likely subordination below Russia.

Using the 2y10y curve and @Macro_Hive's recession model, we currently get a recession probability of 40%.

Here's a quick thread on using the yield curve as a predictor of recessions.🐝🧵 [1] The yield curve is one of the most reliable predictors of recession. When long-term yields start to fall towards or below short-term yields, the curve flattens or inverts. This has often predicted a recession in subsequent months.

The 100th podcast of my show releases this week! That’s 100 experts sharing their macro and investment wisdom with our listeners. Thank you all for the amazing support!

To celebrate, I've collated some of the best tips for investors shared by our exceptional guests🐝👇 [1] First up, @agurevich23: Aggressive ≠ Underdisciplined

“The sky is the limit. Being aggressive does not mean being undisciplined. You can be disciplined, but you should not set your targets low in financial markets”

I’ve just got to 2,000 followers on Twitter. Not 200K, not 20K but 2K. Not a great result for six years. But at least I have expertise on how to fail at building a Twitter following! Here's a thread on how to FAIL at the Twitter game: 1/7 Don’t check Twitter that often. For the first five years, I barely checked my Twitter account and more recently I only check it once a day. Low-frequency usage means less engagement which means less profile.