Bitcoin is dead, long live bitcoin!

We're currently in the 4th epoch of Bitcoin, I've been around since the first epoch of bitcoin. I'm not a highly technical person, I'm more of an early tech adopter, entrepreneur and financial activist.

Fees are spiking on Bitcoin once again & some of us are learning in public (myself) and many (mostly crypto ppl) are declaring lightning dead.

Crypto people are saying the state of bitcoin development & innovation is bad since they see most of the activity around Bitcoin being 2nd & 3rd epoch style tokens, ordinals NFTs & L2 EVM rollup proposals.

This is a bias that crypto people suffer from because they aren't active in Bitcoin circles, they are an echo chamber.

The truth is that bitcoin innovation is happening so fast it's nearly impossible to keep up with.

Here's some things I'm very excited about for the upcoming 5th epoch of Bitcoin. Miniscript:
It's is a big deal. Companies like @AnchorWatch & @revaultdev are building consumer & institutional wallets that unlock a Bitcoin superpower: composable collaborative custody. Anchorwatch is even upgrading Bitcoin self-custody with insurance.

A significant amount of the friction that high net worth investors, companies & institutions have around holding their own bitcoin keys is going to be alleviated with miniscript powered safer onboarding experience.

BTC as a treasury asset will be a lot more appealing to the class of 2025 when they have better FASB fair value accounting rules (thanks @saylor), insurance and best in class security & safety with mini script collaborative custody multisig.

1/ I sold half my #Bitcoin at $30, lost more at MtGox & followed influencers into the Altcoin meat grinder.

Was 2021 your first bull run?

If you learned lessons you might make 10X as much this cycle as you did last cycle.

I'll show you how to avoid the pain this bull run 👇 2/ 🟠Critical Thinking 🟠

If you were here in 2021 & watched your favorite crypto account lose their money in FTX, voyager, BlockFi, etc - why would you listen to what they say now?

They had bad judgement then, and they still have bad judgement.

Don't drink the koolaid.

It's time to evolve the #Bitcoin meetup group.

1/ Local Bitcoin meetup groups should consider creating a decentralized international organization, where local sovereign individuals affiliate, and at some future date, adopt by-laws & a name that is suitable to all. 2/ The first decade we saw the rise of Bitcoin social clubs. Fellowship is an important start to the story Bitcoin adoption.

Moving beyond social clubs & creating an impact in local communities is the next phase of Bitcoiners spreading sovereignty & freedom in the world.

1/ The AI revolution might disrupt the digital entertainment industry soon.

App stores rely on a 30% extortion profit model, driving up the cost of games, music & movie streaming services.

Over the last decade, users have chosen legal options because it's been a better UX. 2/ The balkanization of streaming services is putting a strain on consumer budgets.

With the rise of competition in streaming, sharing limits & cost increases, consumers spending more & more money on streaming services & app subscriptions are being pushed to the edge.

The Eurodollar crew spent 2 years telling us central bank reserves aren't money & don't contribute to inflation because they are trapped.

FedNow is an exit ramp from the fed database $ into broad money (makes its way into circulation.)

I was ridiculed for not buying the story. cc @FedGuy12 do you see it this way or am I missing something?

The Federal Government of 🇨🇦claims our debt to GDP is below 50%, the lowest in the G7 (including provincial debt & CPP/QPP.)

How is this possible when FRED, OECD, statistia & more report our government debt-to-GDP as above 100%?

Did they do the data.oecd.org/gga/general-go…… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… copying some folk I saw commenting on this figure in the last 6-12 mths.

cc @PeterHRatcliffe

https://twitter.com/PeterHRatcliffe/status/1575489853747187712?s=20

Here it looks like you were quoting numbers that look like what the government put out recently, but @maxfawcett said it didn't include prov debt.

thoughts?

How will we know if Balajis is being hyperbolic about hyperinflation?

There are lessons from history!

In sir Wilfred A Ferguson’s book “When Money Dies” the author describes the change in behavior citizens of Hyperland, Germany experienced before high inflation set in.

🧵👇 In hyperland, 1-2 years before the currency started losing its value at a hyperinflationary pace, they had HIGH inflation.

People started losing their jobs quickly and turned to speculating on nonsense like toiletpaper.

Did we see any of that in the last couple years?

https://twitter.com/bradmillscan/status/1470977374837784578

I unfollowed @balajis in early 2021 because he was spending most of his time shilling VC premine pump narratives like web3, DeFi & Ethereum.

He always kept one foot in #Bitcoin and even invests his money in some bitcoin startups, so I respect that!

He mostly became irrelevant… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Here’s a recent-ish video setting up Balaji’s view on Bitcoin Maximalism vs Woke Capitalism.

The take is a bit too tolerant of all the crypto ponzi schemes, hiding behind the “free market” shield that corrodes the ethics of the holder

h/t @americanhodl8

1/ I'm super excited another one of my Bitcoin-only portfolio companies, @GridlessCompute, has closed a $2 million seed round, led by @jack's company @blocks & @AlyseKilleen's @HelloStillmark.

I've been putting my $ where my mouth is & cheerfully investing into African startups.

https://twitter.com/kenyanwalstreet/status/1600038278761095169

2/ Hundreds of millions of ppl in rural areas of Africa don't have adequate power & Bitcoin mining is actually a force for good, incentivizing the buildout of clean renewable ⚡️ infrastructure for these communities.

Global bitcoin-only entrepreneurs are solving real problems.

The Bank of Canada is losing money for the first time in history.

The bank of Canada literally prints money from nothing and even they are losing money now that interest rates are rising.

What hope do regular Canadians have when even they are losing.

The Bank of Canada purchased 90% of the Canadian government’s $500 billion in debt issuance over the last 2 years.

How is this not a Ponzi scheme?

https://twitter.com/RichardDias_CFA/status/1465327290078965762

🚨Careful of USD🚨

The Federal Reserve is a widely used TradFi banking protocol with an infinite mint bug that was exploited in 2020!

The FOMC is a 100% premined DAO that hasn’t implemented proof of reserves!

The community vampire attacked it with the ‘Eurodollar’ fork. 🍿🍿🍿 cc @otteroooo @MikeBurgersburg @DylanLeClair_ @coryklippsten @mikealfred you guys have to look at this!

This protocol has issued $30 *Trillion* in USD coins, the main borrower calls itself “The Treasury” (lol).

The Federal Reserve Board accepts UST as collateral for USD!

Newcomers to Crypto are confused about why Bitcoiners are so critical of Ethereum.

They are so kind, inclusive & generous!

Imagine if Mr Rogers privately ran a network of penny stock bucket shops and let his friends host dog fights at his boiler rooms.

Won't you be my neighbo Ethereum is a story of insiders & whales trying to get rich while constantly misleading investors & the public about what they are doing and why ETH is a better form of money than Bitcoin (it's not).

95% of activity on DeFi is valueless wash trading & whales doing pump & dumps.

DAI has become a private money that should be trading below $1.

MakerDAO has become a VC controlled crypto bank ... a credit issuing fractional reserve bank that does rehypothecation.

DAI is backed primarily by USDC, of which $1+ billion is being *given* to Coinbase to invest. When DAI was issued by over-collateralized ETH, it was an interesting experiment in a censorship resistant algorithmic stablecoin.

Now though, DAI is issued by USDC ... it's fractional reserve credit expansion!

They also started investing the reserves into gov & corp bonds 🤯

1/ I sold half my #bitcoin at $30, lost more in MtGox, btce, cryptsy & cryptopia as well as had a partner in a mining business disappear, losing all of my miners.

Survival advice for those in crypto who had big losses from Celsius, Luna, FTX & DeFi rug pull #ponzigeddon 2022: 2/ The 2 most important things you can do are:

i) learn more about Bitcoin than you do about any other asset. (If you’re investing 1 hour into hunting low cap gems, invest 2 hours into listening to @PrestonPysh’s podcasts.)

ii) learn more about risk management than trading!

Is it possible for Grayscale to withdraw the BTC from Coinbase and use it for something else?

This is a highly regulated product obeying FINRA & SEC rules.

Is it possible that they would rehypothecate the BTC?

https://twitter.com/dkSangyoon/status/1593695709001183232

cc @brucefenton @SimonDixonTwitt @CaitlinLong_

What is block one / EOS crew doing with their massive bitcoin hoard? cc @nvk I don’t see them on @BTCtreasuries

The federal reserve had some comments today about stablecoins & the changing role of the dollar in the world.

I think there's a good chance that the regulators will embrace stablecoins as a net positive for dollarization.

However there is risk here.

https://twitter.com/theblock__/status/1537936436464275457?s=21&t=Poy2s8DJsJUJrqpmgxo_cA

The Treasury is talking about preventing Russia from evading sanctions via cryptocurrency mining.

thecoinrepublic.com/2022/06/14/u-s…

*if* regulators decide to allow stablecoins to get into compliance, Circle will be under the same requirements as banks.

travel rule, AML/KYC/ATF/etc

I think the bottom actually might be in ... I'm going to buy some #Bitcoin for the long account on account of Jim Cramer is a great counter indicator.

https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1536411733773934595

Dylan makes me feel a way here

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1536402522344148992

There's BILLIONS in leveraged bets on the Eth PoS activation via AAVE & Lido's synthetic ETH token stETH.

1) Stake ETH in Lido for stETH
2) Deposit stETH in AAVE & borrow ETH
3) 🔁

One problem: you can't unwind this trade.

If stETH:ETH peg fails, many ETH bulls will be rekt. the stETH:ETH peg faced some pressure recently because there was also a leverage strategy in the Anchor protocol that saw I think around $200 million in ETH deposited onto Terra through Lido as bETH.

I'm not sure how that resolved for users, but many LPs removed their liquidity.

1/ The obvious long term institutional trade IMO is #Bitcoin to $1 million

The market will realize that the monetary properties of bitcoin are far superior to the monetary properties of other cryptos like ETH & SOLD & it should (aside from in bubbles) allocate to BTC. 2/ Eventually the investment thesis for #Bitcoin will decouple completely from other cryptocurrencies.

Betting on ETH & SOL and their DeFi application coins (the few majors that survive ponzigeddon) will be more like betting on big tech companies, based on things like PE ratio.

I keep saying that ETH is going back to $500.

Ethereum is not money. The switch to POS will probably pump ETH, but it should be a sell the news event.

DeFi/NFT Bubble gains should be erased just like ICO Bubble gains were erased.

Even $500 is too much.

tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSD/Q… Full disclosure, I've been saying ETH to $500 for a long time ... my ETH calls have not been accurate, as I'm sure someone will point out.

What is ETH?

If it's money, then Bitcoin destroys it.
If it's not money, it's overpriced.

Lower ETH px = better UX for Ethereum.