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Camryn Brown Profile picture
Camryn Brown
@camrynpetebrown
Husband + dad. Mgmt consultant. @NZNationalParty volunteer incl. Northcote Chair. Baseball player + fan. Content at @the_blue_review and https://t.co/xNfByVU9qW
Mar 2, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Some say explaining is losing? I'm willing to risk it. Here's my mental model of how governments influence whether protests are more or less likely to happen and why I think Luxon was using the same model in his "Divided Nation" speech. #nzpol 1. Across any population, there is always a range of feelings towards government actions
2. This range of feelings follows a normal distribution - most individuals have nearly-average feelings but a few have extreme feelings
Mar 2, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
So, the vaunted 58k+ figures for PCR testing surge capacity depended on pooling. And pooling depends on relatively low positivity rates. And positivity rates are high during outbreaks when testing surges. QED, the surge capacity never existed. #nzpol
ondemand.parliament.nz/parliament-tv-… And the gaslighting continues... there are PCR samples that're too old to generate meaningful results but @drayeshaverrall keeps talking about "working through the backlog" and says "I have not been advised" when asked about sample binning.
Mar 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My rule of thumb is that Australia is similar to NZ on Omicron but 50 days ahead. Their highest ever day for new cases was 151k on 13-Jan. In NZ terms, that'd be 30k on 4-Mar. We're not forecast to exceed 30k until 8-Mar with a peak of 34k a few days later. #nzpol #covid19nz
Oct 16, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
If I had arranged for Parliamentary Services to hire my good friend, I simply wouldn't ask that friend to plan my wedding because the risk of spending public money on myself would be too high. /1 #nzpol To be clear, I have no issue with Parliamentary Services hiring party activists to work in MP's offices. An MP needs to trust their staff. /2
Oct 15, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
It seems to me that the proposed traffic light system is about having fewer tools across a less optimistic range of outcomes... and making it as unclear as possible that that's what is happening. #nzpol #covid19nz #lockdownnz Due to variations in definitions and practices over time, and the traffic light system being under development, this chart is intended as merely conceptual.