1/9 Survivorship bias is a trap that skews how we perceive success, especially in investing. By focusing only on winners and ignoring failures, we risk drawing incomplete conclusions. Here’s why it matters. 🧵 2/9 In investing, we often celebrate successful companies or strategies, assuming they represent the whole story. But what about the countless failed businesses, funds, or ideas that didn’t survive? Ignoring them distorts reality.

1/10 How we spend money affects our happiness. A study by Dunn, Gilbert, and Wilson highlights eight principles to optimize happiness from spending. These principles help us make better financial decisions for a happier life. 2/10 Principle 1: Buy experiences, not things. Experiences like travel create lasting memories and joy. Material possessions, while enjoyable, don't provide the same enduring happiness.

1/10 Factor investing, supported by decades of academic research, involves systematic tilts towards specific styles/themes across diversified assets, deviating from market weights. This approach can be integrated into various portfolios. 2/10 Fundamental investors often target stocks that fit specific profiles, such as growing companies at reasonable prices or deep-value stocks. These profiles are quantifiable factors used for selection.

1/10 The Union Budget often triggers intense speculation about its impact on equity markets. But does it really matter? Our analysis of 24 Union Budgets from 2000 to 2023 shows that the short- and medium-term market reactions are largely unpredictable. 2/10 Take the 2003 budget: new taxes were introduced, including VAT and service tax. The CNX500 rose 0.5% on budget day but fell 6% a month later. Yet, a year later, the market had doubled.

🎰 Winning the lottery is clearly based on Luck

🏁 Luck, however, won’t help you beat Magnus Carlsen at chess or Novak Djokovic on a tennis court. That needs Skill—lots of it.

What about investing?

𝐈𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐬𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐬𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐩𝐢𝐝 𝐥𝐮𝐜𝐤?

We explore🧵 ⤵️ Most outcomes, though, don’t lend themselves to be placed at the extremes.

There is a, let’s call it, “the fuzzy middle”, where most things we do lie, where a combination of Skill and Luck determines the outcome.

Investing fits somewhere in this fuzzy middle.

The Euphoria of a market high is often followed by a very logical question:

Should I buy more when the market is at highs? 🤷‍♂️

@CalmInvestor analyses this question with data 🧵 @CalmInvestor The shaded regions on this Nifty chart represent the times it made new highs, or when it closed within 1% of lifetime highs.

The Nifty closed at highs on 13% of all trading days 👇

💡Who do you trust to get reliable, unbiased information to make your investment decisions?

A lot of FREE investment information is out there.

More than ever, it's now important to determine if the information source is credible & trustworthy 🎯

(A thread) 👉Good Decision-making input needs to be credible and trustworthy.

Before consuming advice, know where the source of the advice scores on two parameters:

1️⃣ Trustability
2️⃣ Credibility

⚡️ The BIG LIC IPO is here ⚡️

LIC is looking to offload a 3.5% stake to raise ₹20,500 Cr from the equity markets. It is the biggest IPO in India to date.

5 Reasons to NOT subscribe and ONE reason that makes it worth subscribing.

All you need to know about LIC IPO (thread)🧵 The price band is set at ₹902 to ₹949.

The policyholders will get a discount of ₹60/- per share, while retail shareholders & employees will get a discount of ₹45/- per share.

Post listing, LIC will be the fifth-largest company in India in terms of market cap at ~₹6L Cr 🤯

⚡️⚡️ This initiative can be a UPI style disruption in E-Commerce!

Indian banks rushed to buy a stake in Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) project.

No, It's not a hot new start-up.
No, It's not a government regulator.

A very quick overview about ONDC🧵 ONDC is an open network that enables buyers and sellers to connect digitally across various platforms.

It envisions to have interoperability across e-commerce applications. Just like UPI works for payments.

Let's take an example👇🏻

⏰ LAST CHANCE: Before the Financial Year ends, get your tax planning right!

Our FIVE STEP framework with quantitative analysis to find out the best ELSS fund to invest in FY 2022.

Here's a quick thread 🧵

Retweet for your friends who are still procrastinating 😄 Under Sec 80C, ELSS (Equity Linked Savings Scheme) funds are equity mutual funds with up to ₹1,50,000 in 80C tax deduction in a financial year.

In exchange, your money is locked in for three years.

So it's important to analyze and pick a fund for the long term 🎯

⚡️Introducing Capitalmind Focused Smallcase ⚡️

Fundamentally picked portfolio of companies showing long-term growth potential with disciplined risk management.

Go to Smallcase: bit.ly/3JzCMv2

Details on portfolio philosophy & performance in thread👇🧵 🎯 What are stock selection criteria?

• Market leaders across sectors
• Robust earnings growth
• Overall good corporate governance
• Strong or improving balance sheets
• Potential growth triggers & Industry tailwinds
• Stay in cash when If not enough opportunities

The #RussiaUkraine war has spooked the world 🚨

These are turbulent and difficult times. For folks in those troubled regions. Also for investors.

The perfect storm for panic-filled decisions.

Here's how we at @capitalmind_in think about investing through a crisis.

A thread🧵 Fear and panic cause people to freeze – and in many cases, it’s perfectly fine to not act at all.

Remember - every crisis will be overcome, eventually. Stay Calm 😇

Hence, this thread 👇

It’s a cluster-fall 💥

The share price of Meta Platforms, the artist formerly known as Facebook, is down more than 20% in one day. It’s down ~35% in the past 6 months.

Time to ask, "What’s on your earnings report, Meta?"🤓

Quick thread on this sharp fall of Meta ($FB) 🧵🧵 The reasons are quite a few:

- political turmoil with congress
- privacy concerns,
- uncertain future growth plans (metaverse)

👉 The latest reason seems to have spooked the markets the most – a three letter statistic called DAUs or Daily Active Users.

Good traders always worry about blowing up. So they cap exposure to any single position. They lose less.

But, active investors have the opposite problem. They tend to under allocate to their winners. So they win lesser.

⭐ 3 step framework to let your winners, WIN

Thread🧵🧵 But first, some context.

Under allocation sucks 💯

With a 0.5% allocation to a 3-bagger in your portfolio, you’d still be only 1.45% better off than a 100% “fill-it-shut-it-forget-it” passive investor 🤯

Seems to be very little to show for identifying a brilliant stock

👔 There's a whole new pandemic of “Advisory” services promising “guaranteed 100% per month” or “3% per day” or whatever abuse of compounding they fancy.

Do not let these "tips" services sucker you.

Today's thread has "tips" to deal with these "tipsters"🧵🧵 Thanks to a strong bull market, app-based brokers & Telegram / Twitter / TV - it's easier than ever to scam.

The modus operandi is simple: a service where you pay every month to receive stock tips by Telegram or WhatsApp.

Some even promise to directly trade in your account.

🇹🇷 The Turkish currency, Lira, is falling like a rock. It has lost ~88% of its value in the last 10 years 😳

Inflation has exploded to ~20%. In reality, it can be even 40% 💥

What is happening in Turkey? Is it heading for hyperinflation as Venezuela did?

A thread 🧵🧵 How did it all begin?

Recep Erdogan, the current President of Turkey, was first elected in 2003. During the same time, Turkey’s economy started to go expand rapidly.

By 2017, Turkey had become the 17th biggest economy in the world, with a GDP of $852 Billion! 🌟

2022 is coming 🥳

The dawn of a new year is a good chance to sort things out and start things up.

To sort and start things "Moneywise"-

Here's a 10-point thread with All the Financial Advice You'll Need 🧵🧵👇 Sometimes, we overcomplicate matters, even with our research at @capitalmind_in...

..where @deepakshenoy will tell you to invest in ultra short-term funds because the yield curve is flattening or the flat curve is yielding, or both 📈📉

Sometimes you see an Rs. 100 notes on the ground. And you wonder, is it real? 🤔

If it was real, wouldn’t someone else have picked it up?

One such 100 rupee note was lying on the exchange couple of days back.

Time for a thread on what it was and how we played it🧵 This “free lunch” was available on 23rd December 2021, with the ICICI Nifty 100 ETF. This ETF invests with the Nifty 100 Index – and is supposed to track it.

But the traded price on exchange (~181.5) was way lower than the prevailing NAV (~187) 🤓

FM says, govt. is dedicated to ideals of Lord Basaveshwara. Quotes him in Kannada "Kayakave Kailasa" (Work is Worship"). FM says, will consolidate multiple labor laws into set of 'four labor codes'. #budget 2019