Crudehead🛢 Profile picture
Oil analyst formerly known as Lord Crudehead: funder of hedges; professional drinker of your milkshake. #OOTT
Dec 10 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/Since we obsess about US import tariffs, why not US export subsidies?

If you seek energy dominance then you want to boost utilization within the US oil system (upstream-midstream-downstream).

So why are we not talking about refined #oil product export subsidies?

#OOTT 2/US dominates the Atlantic Basin in terms of scale and complexity. Pushing that domestic surplus into other markets will be key for survival.

It will accelerate the shutdown of refinery capacity in Europe.

It will need subsidies to compete with ME/Indian exporters.
#OOTT
Oct 11, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1) This is a crazy op-ed. It is simplistic, short sighted &
just wrong.
Seems the author just wanted to extoll the benefits of LNG and corkscrewed that into a narrative of how LNG is contributing to the defeat of Putin.

The author misunderstands energy markets.
#OOTT 2) "Gas is becoming a buyer’s market"

Eh no.
TTF: $45/mmbtu & JKM: 34/mmbtu. So gas is certainly not a buyer's market right now nor in the immediate future.
Gas is pricing to conserve itself.
No matter what "burst of gas transforming markets this autumn".
#OOTT
Mar 4, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🚨Sorting the 'Russian Invasion' in five not-so-easy-steps...

#OOTT Step1: Sign and deliver the Iran deal. Expect 800kbd back on the market over the next six months (should be more). Iran has 40-50mln bbls of crude #oil sitting on the water in any case. Once Iran is back then the sequencing can being…

#OOTT
Sep 29, 2021 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
1/ 'Now is the winter of our [energy] discontent'...

There is an energy crisis in every major consuming area of the world - except North America.

The only fix is price...and 'winter' hasn't even started yet.

#OOTT 2/ Europe must price out #gas to conserve it for the depths of winter. Renewables are unreliable and even if it wants to burn coal there ain't much available.

Europe must push on gas-to #oil: any liquid will do once its cheaper than $27/mmbtu!
#OOTT
Sep 13, 2019 • 7 tweets • 8 min read
1/Here is why you [the market] and the @IEA have got it wrong on #IMO2020.
This is what a 'little disruption' may entail....
#OOTT @IEA 2/ #IMO2020 crunch time for #oil product balances coming in Dec/Jan not Apr20 (as per IEA). No @IMOHQ derogations/no delays. Market is telling us so as prompt HSFO cracks collapse.
#OOTT
Mar 22, 2019 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
1/#IMO2020 is the most significant change to the global refining complex in my lifetime (..however I'm a millennial..sort of) #OOTT 2/#IMO2020 is all about getting rid of ~3.0mln bbls/d of #oil demand and creating ~3.0mln bbls/d of new supply #OOTT