A Thread - about ITC : why its trading discounted and sideways since long ? My view.

Amazing Numbers Overview.
But beauty lies in the details.
Cigarettes : YoY Sales Declined 15%
Qtr Rev 13k crore, 6k from Cigarettes. (45%)
Qtr Profit 4.8k crore, 4k from Cig. (83%)

1/n FMCG + Agri: YoY Sales up by 8% & 19% respectively.
Qtr Revenue 6k Crore (50% share)
Qtr Profit 92+249 Crore (7% share only)

Cashcow is declining & FMCG is growing but margin share is the key.
Cigarettes gives 69% Profit on sales which is declining

2/n

A simplified thread about #Gamma : Delta is change in option price with change in stock/nf/BN, but Delta doesn't remain constant, so how much delta will be changed, is measured by Gamma. Confusing?
#Gamma measures risk of movement, for e.g #tcs is trading at 2000rs,

1/n 2/n, 2100CE has 0.4 #delta and #Gamma 0.001

TCS moving +100rs can change delta as below (100rs x 0.001)+0.4 = 0.5 new delta for 2100CE when TCS reached at 2100, which is ATM

(Price Change x Gamma) + old delta = New delta.

Gamma is +ve for Long CE/PE and -ve for Short CE/PE

A simplified thread about Fundamental Analysis based on old notes.

Ratio : Return, Efficiency, Growth, Cash flow, Valuation & Solvency are major factors to have ratio.

An easy matrix to compare stocks with same category. Like ranking without knowing details of balancesheet 1/n 2/n Price to Book Value, one of the method to know if CMP is overvalued or undervalued compared to Book Value or Value if Liquidated, cases like Jet, Rcom may have BV higher > CPM but doesn't mean it's attractive price, a detailed article to read on BV m.businesstoday.in/story/stocks-t…

A thread about options spreads : Before I take u there, Part 1 : when you buy option, Theta (Time) is against u, Vega/Delta/Gamma are with u. Simple language, if you're right on directional, option buying gives u profit but slow on direction or no momentum, u lose time value.1/n 2/n Vega can also be against u, if u buy at high IV and then iv falls down. Read about Volatility thread for details. So buying options has low winning Probability (Delta is winning Probability, already explained in a thread). Lower the delta, Low winnin Probability, high RR.

A thread on SwingTrading after event: its high risk and reward when there is an event like result day. So I thought of writing a thread about it using options to hedge and how to protect risk for limited time. 2/n Let's take tomorrow's trade plan, After results on #infy or #tcs there might be gap opening. If TCS opens gap down and ur TA system gives reversal BUY on 5min chart after 9.45am, it's too risky to buy as higher time frame must be still bearish, lot is noise on TV and on chart

Volatility is calculated in a funny way – it is the annualized standard deviation of the daily returns. we measure volatilities over a period of one year (252d), but consider daily moves, so SQRT(252) = 15.9, you have to divide HV or IV by 16 to get daily expected movement. IV plays big role on premium, must not be ignored. 36% iv goes to 24% when news cool down. So your premium falls by 33% even underlying stays there. It's just news impact is absorb, so movement expected daily is back to normal. In may case, despite directionally right, u lose.

#pingbar reversal signal , very important to understand pin bar at correct support or trend line level. Example on L&TFH

Delta: again so complex definition but simplest way to treat delta as Probability % of option to be IN THE Money at expiry. You can sumup the Probability of Call and Put both. When you buy stock in cash, it's delta is 1. It's ITM already, 😀

If you buy ATM Call, it's delta is 50%, have you noticed that? The Probability of ATM becomes ITM is 50%, underlying may go up or go down or remain there.

If stock moves 1rs, call value moves 0.50rs, delta is 50