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Covid19MC Profile picture
Covid19MC
@covid19mc
We're a group of scientists & clinicians working on simulating healthcare resource utilization for COVID19 and identify capacity constraints to support planning
Nov 12, 2020 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
1/8
We have updated modelling for case predictions, ICU occupancy, and hospital resource utilization over time in Ontario for COVID-19 to share. A thread:

#COVID19Ontario #onpoli 2/8
Over the past week we have seen the rate of growth in new daily cases of COVID-19 in Ontario increase from 4% to 6% per day. This may not sound like an important shift, but it has significant impact on the number of cases and impact on health system resources.
Nov 5, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
New simulations of scenarios of potential hosp and ICU occupancy based on observed case trajectory in ON, potential reduced restrictions, & observations in European countries (🇧🇪,🇳🇱,🇩🇪, 🇬🇧, 🇫🇷):

cases will likely increase and meet 100/100k threshold by late Nov/early Dec

1/4 In all scenarios, COVID-19 cases in ICU will exceed the 150-patient threshold above which surgical capacity is threatened.

2/4
Sep 25, 2020 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
1/ We have updated our model and have predictions for Ontario’s second wave from the COVID-19-Modeling Collaborative. #onpoli #COVID19 2/ We considered 4 potential second wave epidemic curves, from best to worst: Ontario’s 1st wave, 2nd waves in Michigan and Victoria (peer jurisdictions), and Italy’s 1st wave.