Deepak Venkatesh Profile picture
Learning investing. All tweets are personal.
JD Profile picture Shakeeb Shuweb | شكيب شويب Profile picture 2 added to My Authors
10 Jun
*DO READ or LISTEN*

Very Critical

1/ Adding somethings which I have done in this thread. Maybe not the perfect thing but helps.
2/ Get your nominees set up. Super important.

And let those nominees know. How?

Make a consolidated mail for them. And tag that mail in their inbox. For instance my wife has a tab "DV" & color code it. Do this for your sibling & parents if possible
3/ MY NSDL CAS statements get forwarded to my wife and her statement to mine. I have maintained sporadically though CAS statements in a google drive folder to which both of us have access. As investors your close ones should know every single investment you have.
Read 7 tweets
4 Oct 20
1/n

A short thread on Indian Household Finance

Percentage of Households having exposure to equity

USA
Direct stock
60s 40%
80s 25%
90s 17%

MFs
80s 70%
90s 43%
(Lynch)

India
One of the lowest in the world at ~14% as per MOSL vs 45% of US.

Whereas RBI quotes <10% in Jun 20.
2/n

We are close to 80% invested in Real Estate and drowning in unsecured debt.
3/n

Only 13% save for retirement

And over 50% think their children will help in retirement
Read 12 tweets
29 Sep 20
1/n

Short notes from the book 'Dead Companies Walking' by Scott Fearon.

I think this is a must read book for all investors to understand when to stay away from a company even if you don't want to short it. Image
2/n Things go wrong more often than they go right. Failure is actually a natural - even crucial - element of a healthy economy. And the people who are willing to acknowledge that fact can make a hell of a lot of money.
3/n One of the most enduring & important business traditions is failure
Read 25 tweets
25 Sep 20
1/n My investing process which is quite manual & achingly slow given that I get only a few hours a day & weekends

Rule1: Handwritten & filed in folders like below

Always have most of the documentation printed & filed. Ignore the stocks please.
2/n

Rule 2: An Investment checklist. Printed & filed in hand (snapshot below)

For the company in question as well as appropriate competitors
3/n

Rule 3: Have a Page 0. This I have learnt at work. I keep updating it if I come back to the company. Screenshot below.

Everything is given objectively as trend except the reason to reject the idea
Read 10 tweets
15 Sep 20
1/n A look at the oldest companies & earliest traded stocks
The 1st stock exchange was established in 1602 in Amsterdam. It was made by the Dutch East India Company, chart below
The south sea bubble of 1720 can be seen. The company lasted under 2 centuries & finally went bankrupt Image
2/n Another company traded in Amsterdam was The Dutch West India Company which also went into bankruptcy in late 1700s. In the chart below we can see both the Tulip mania & the South Sea Bubble. Image
3/n But these two companies are no match for the oldest companies which exist till today. They could have merged. Some are listed via the new parent too. The types are:
Read 8 tweets
10 Jul 20
1/n The term Coffee Can is being used to market funds these days. Professional fund management is more about selling & less about returns today

Some learnings from my father who has held stocks since the 80s & 90s and is the person who got me interested in this investing project
2/n Being a govt doctor working on the field most of the time he rarely put in effort to do any detailed analysis. He tried his hand at a business & failed miserably. Went back to job.

His learning - give money to people who can run businesses efficiently.
3/n You can never create a business in 1-2 years. It takes decades. So why do you think you will make returns in a few months? He bought stocks with the expectation that for 5+ year nothing would happen.

This is what the world's richest man says & does.
Read 14 tweets
5 Apr 20
1/n How painful is the current drawdown investors are seeing. A small thread on the topic

My objective was to look at 3 things essentially

How far does the portfolio fall?
How long does it stay in the dumps?
How fast does it fall?

Taken Nifty50 as the portfolio since 1 Jan 99
2/n There are only 3 blocks of period in which Nifty has gone below a drawdown on maximum terms of below 30% since 1 Jan 1999

Dotcom - Period roughly from Feb 2000 to Dec 2003
GFC - Period roughly from Jan 2008 to Oct 2010
Covid - Period roughly from Mid Jan 2020 to present Image
3/n Dotcom period

How far does the portfolio fall
Max DD was 51% Image
Read 11 tweets
2 Apr 20
1/n

Stocks which have appeared resilient

Hindustan Unilever

Quality bubble has not been pricked yet. Its near its 52 week high.

Got inspiration to look at these from my derivatives professor :) Image
2/n

Nestle

Probably the leader in the Quality Bubble. About to hit 52 week high again. Image
3/n

Abbott India

Hit 52 week high a few days ago. Looks like this is the hot cake in the bakery. Everyone wants it. Probably one of the highest PE stocks in pharma space.

People need to read up on their unlisted entity also. Too many assumptions recently. Image
Read 4 tweets
28 Mar 20
1/n Do read this article. It's very important I would say.

I am a newbie compared to this gentleman writer. But I made few decisions to manage the fall so far both from an execution perspective & an emotional perspective. I could be wrong.
2/n

I have even before this had written down my process for core equity investment. I maintain one fundamental growth equity portfolio, a small momentum & a trading book.

I truly believed in equity debt allocation & stuck to in my core portfolio no matter what. It was painful.
3/n

I used to make weekly notes. I tried to do it daily. I made a plan as per reversion strategy to deploy cash into equities.

I tried to be as unemotional as possible. Infact I made sure to check my holdings on a regular basis & reiterate to myself to stick to the rules.
Read 6 tweets
24 Mar 20
1/6 My top 5 Investment ebooks which can be bought to read during free time during this WFH period.

Here they are. And why in a few lines.
2/6
One Up on Wall Street: This is the 1st book one must read getting into investing imho. Very simple to understand.

Its available on Kindle Unlimited so go for the subscription for a ton of other books.

amazon.in/One-Up-Wall-St…
3/6

The Intelligent Investor: The favorite book of Mr Buffett. Now available at deep value. Few chapters need to be printed out and stuck at your work desk.

amazon.in/Intelligent-In…
Read 8 tweets
20 Mar 20
1/n HDFC Bank: Story of 2 analyst reports received today morning.

One from Bernstein with a sell rating & the other from UBS with a buy rating. Target Price 750 & 1480 respectively. Just some personal thoughts now.
2/n Before we rely on any analyst reports we must look at the stance & history of their previous predictions of the writer. I would not like to proceed further without this know how.
3/n Bernstein (BRNSTN) analyst Gautam is a crypto fan. He believes 'The only real money will in the coming days will be BTC. Rest is just Uncle Sam's printing press'.
Read 17 tweets
17 Mar 20
1/n Few companies which are staying strong on price charts.

*Share other names which you think have been relatively strong*

Looking at logarithmic price charts & seeing which have touched the 200 DMA or just crossed it.
2/n Abbott. Not touched the 200 DMA so far! Image
3/n Asian Paints: One of quality bubble stocks as people on the street say Image
Read 8 tweets
15 Mar 20
1/n Short thread on some numbers of affected people due to #COVID19

I have also collated the same in a PDF attached here:
bit.ly/2TQpbZ7

Source: worldometers
2/n China’s total number of cases on the logarithmic scale has reached an asymptote. Only other country which seems to be reaching such a limit is South Korea. Image
3/n South Korea Image
Read 18 tweets
19 Feb 20
1/n
Little probing on SBI Cards IPO

Since SBI IPO is on its way a lot of data is being cut in different ways from RBIs reporting to make it look nice eg
H bank has max cards in force
X bank customers do Y txns per month
A bank's customer's have B avg ticket size per swipe
2/n

There is a concept of 'activation rate' of a cards portfolio. If there are X cards in force it doesn't mean X cards get swiped. Activation rates are not made public. But on digging deep into some card network reports you will get an idea.
3/n

Debit card and credit card portfolios have very very different activation rates..sorry activation rate is what fraction of cards in a portfolio does the card get swiped/dipped.
Read 7 tweets
7 Feb 20
1/ A thread about how Swiss Watches are used a currency & some interesting facts 😊

This article is across WA groups & Social Media. I wanted to share what I learnt & 'saw' how Swiss Luxury Watches are used in Europe specifically Italy.

bit.ly/2OxhcNC
2/ After WW2 in which Italy was a part of the Axis group it was in economic shambles. But in late 50s a golden period for the economy began. This period lasted perhaps into the late 70s & 80s. It was called 'miracolo economico' meaning the Miracle Economy!
3/ A person who spent over a decade once told me - It's easier to pull money out of a crocodile's mouth than from the pocket of an Italian. In many sense they are one of the most street smart people out there. A passionate lot in whatever they do be it good or bad!
Read 19 tweets
25 Dec 19
1/n This reminds me of my visit to a very senior IAS officer's *huge* office on Parliament street few years ago.

Myself a Venkatesh & a colleague called Swami waited outside the office at the mercy of a peon to pay a visit to the IAS officer.

Cc: @dmuthuk
2/n

After like 20-30 mins we were ushered in to his cabin. The cabin was larger than perhaps most meeting rooms I had seen in my life. After a while the officer marched in from the left.

We straightened up.
3/n

We have our visiting cards to the officer after the regular pleasantries. He glanced and kept it aside. My colleague Swami started with the pitch - the problem statement & help required.

The officer listened nonchalantly.
Read 6 tweets
17 Dec 19
1/n A series of tweets on Diversification from Mr Buffett's Jan 1966 letter. Lately there has been a stance of movement towards higher diversification with many Gurus pointing out the same. I think this letter is *one of the best content* on the subject. Quoting Mr Buffett below:
2/n We diversify substantially less than most investment operations.
3/n We might invest up to 40% of our net worth in a single security under conditions coupling an extremely high probability that our facts & reasoning are correct with a very low probability that anything could drastically change the underlying value of the investment.
Read 32 tweets
3 Dec 19
1/n

This year I think I will share the books which I found either useless or a waste of time for me. They could have been great books for someone else but for me they were not worth the time.
2/n

Ultralearning: This book deserves not more than 30 mins of anyone's time. Repetitive to the core. The first few pages are enough.
3/n

Think Python

This is actually a great book. And I am going to read it once again after I get over my current Python book.
A very good book to solve if you have some background in computer science. But not the right time for me to have read this cover to cover.
Read 6 tweets
21 Jul 19
#EV (1/n) What fraction will be India's contribution to the global electric vehicle market. Any guesses?
We are a part of the top dark grey region consisting of 150 countries. Yes we are the largest in that perhaps.
#EV (2/n) In the US EVs cost more & will continue to do so for over half a decade than ICE. The battery cost when it drops as a % to car cost to 20% does EV make acquisition sense for a consumer(not including TCO).
How will this play out in India? How will v control r costs?
#EV (3/n) Incentives from a regulatory perspective will drive the initial thrust of EV adoption followed by economic sense in ownership. In India are we treading on the same path?
Read 22 tweets