Eyes on MENA geopolitics & security | Thoughts my own.
Jan 12 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
A brief tactical-geopolitical update on the evolving regional dynamics affecting RSF supply lines since this paper came out.
Whereas RSF supply lines were primarily shaped by endogenous developments in Libya, Chad, and Sudan from 2023 through late 2025, a set of exogenous shifts in geopolitical dynamics are now forcing significant adaptations in RSF logistics. Three interlinked factors appear to be driving this change:
1. A Turko-Egyptian rapprochement
2. An Emirati entrenchment in Ethiopia
3. The Saudi/Emirati Red Sea crisis (Yemen/Somalia)
First, the Turko-Egyptian rapprochement is perhaps the most consequential. By late 2025, there was evidence of growing operational cooperation between Ankara and Cairo in the defence sector. This has manifested in the first sustained Egyptian kinetic action against RSF supply convoys transiting the Mutalath (the Egypt-Libya-Sudan tri-border area) from Kufra into Darfur. These actions appear to have integrated Turkish surveillance and strike capabilities projected through Egyptian bases.
The report attributes the recent military academy massacre to "aircraft affiliated with the Libyan National Army", though Salamé was quoted mentioning a foreign state (#UAE) was likely responsible.
Dec 12, 2017 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
THREAD
There is a growing trend to implement development projects oriented towards women economic empowerment (WEE) in #Libya. This is great because it paves the way for changing the cultural paradigm of Libyan society and promotes inclusion of #women in other areas. 1/10
But there are also opportunities/risks that should be observed/mitigated when implementing such projects, given the #Libya-n environment. I’ll try and compile a few here that I hope will be observed by both donors and implementing orgs. 2/10
