Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Mike Famulare Profile picture
Mike Famulare
@famulare_mike
Like polio, Twitter lingers on. Learning to be a father, husband, and person. Transmission epidemiologist, see Google Scholar. All tweets mine alone.
Eric Anderson Profile picture 1 subscribed
Nov 8, 2022 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
With data from @joeyfox85, I threw together a crude, amateur model of the beam cone for an Ergo X One personal far-UV-C device. With that, a few thoughts... Data, code, and figures for the irradiance field model here. Approach here . This only describes the light, but not effectiveness against infection. Effectiveness depends strongly on exposure and air flow, and I don't model that.github.com/famulare/far-U…
Oct 3, 2022 • 25 tweets • 9 min read
As an interested amateur looking to learn about personal far UV-C as an infection prevention tool, I did some playing with the 222nm irradiance data from the UV Can Lily from @joeyfox85. For those interested in learning along with me, here are notes: Caveat #1. Did I mention I'm an amateur? While I have earned my place to claim a fair amount infectious disease transmission expertise, when it comes to UV sterilization, I'm currently at the "white guy with a physics degree" stage of personal development. HERE BE DRAGONS.
Sep 24, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I love this idea but I’m not seeing the math work out. The power at ~50 cm from an Ergo X One seems way too low. @Don_Milton am I making a mistake? Thread: Little device in the pic ergo-healthtech.com/app-landing-pa… delivers 1.5 milli-watt per cm-squared at the opening.
Aug 20, 2022 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
(Sigh) This is a perfect example of something that is that is neither true nor false. A discussion (against my better judgment), to dissect how experts can drift too far from shore:
Image First, most important point. In 2017, ACIP stopped recommending antibody testing to confirm polio immunity because the type 2 reagents are in short supply, as detailed here cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…. If you're unsure or definitely sure you didn't, see about getting IPV.
Jul 22, 2022 • 42 tweets • 10 min read
MFW all the hot takes on SARS2, polio, transmission blocking, mucosal immunity, and community-level risk differences collide🤯

The story of polio epi today is the story of how mucosal vaccines and clean indoor air will together be transformative against respiratory infections.🧵 Here's the shortest version I can muster... (42 tweets is not short.)
Jan 14, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
In the last thread, I looked at evidence for the intrinsic severity of Omicron, and discuss how it isn't much less severe than any of the other SARS-2s. But what about immunity?

tl;dr: Prior immunity further reduces severity, but how much so will vary by community. The most recent @UKHSA report shows vaccine efficacy against hospitalization estimates for Omicron, stratified by vaccination status. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Jan 14, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
6 weeks ago, we talked about reasonable expectations for #Omicron severity, in contrast to "it's mild (this is fine)". With the new @UKHSA report, it's time to revisit what we've learned & how.

tl;dr: It's less severe than I worried, but still in range of every other SARS-2. On Dec 2, in response to irresponsible "it's mild!" from early data, I showed the range of severities, measured as case-hospitalization rates (CHR), for VOCs relative to 2020-SARS-2, to set reasonable expectations prior to more data and careful analysis.
Dec 18, 2021 • 28 tweets • 10 min read
The uncertainty around individual-level severity of #Omicron is shrinking. & what we're learning is, sadly, predictably, boring.

tl;dr: Omicron is probably about as severe as delta, or every other VOC. "Mild" is all but ruled out.

2 years & many "experts" have learned nothing The first individual-level analysis from the UK, by @neil_ferguson @MRC_Outbreak, adjusting for age, prior infection & vax, sample day, etc is out today. They find the adjusted odds ratio of hospitalization with Omicron vs mostly delta is 0.95 (0.61-1.47). imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
Dec 17, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
This is psychotic. We talked 25th amendment for the last guy, and I don’t see a damn difference here! @POTUS Biden is choosing to do nothing—no good masks, no paid leave, no rapid tests, no isolation help—while tens of millions he’s sworn to protect get infected, at least another 100k die, and frontline workers collapse, before the one option he supports will reach half of us.
Dec 3, 2021 • 20 tweets • 10 min read
I want to say more about vaccine efficacy against severe #COVID19 during breakthru infections. Modeler, not immunologist, so sticking to stats from trials...

tl;dr: severe efficacy given breakthru is ~independent of antibody titer and only ~60%.

Related Khoury et al at @KirbyInstitute have famously made clear thru metastudy that neutralizing antibody levels are a correlate of protection for COVID-19 vaccines. They thelancet.com/journals/lanmi… and others @DiseaseEcology medrxiv.org/content/10.110… show it works across variants and time.
Dec 3, 2021 • 20 tweets • 11 min read
There's lots of speculation about the severity of #Omicron, but I haven't seen anything quantitative, based on what we know about #COVID19 variants, to set realistic expectations.

So a🧵with data.

tl;dr: Omicron in double-vaxxed likely similar to OG 2020 COVID in the unvaxxed. First, the whole class of Variants of Concern (VOCs) and many Variants of Interest are more severe relative to OG 2020 SARS-CoV-2 and its many non-VOC descendants.

(medrxiv.org/content/10.110…, data from @WADeptHealth in collab with @paredesmig @trvrb and others).
Nov 20, 2020 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Leaving the WA #COVID19 beat for a moment and looking nationally, remember that no matter how out of control your local epidemic is, hunkering down tight will not only stop the growth but prevent infections long after loosening up again. How do we know? Snow in Seattle taught us! In 2019, my colleagues in the Seattle Flu Study, including @trvrb @HelenChuMD @JShendure @lea_starita @mjonasrieder @debnick60 and others were testing thousands of respiratory samples for lots of pathogens when 4 big snowstorms in a row shut down the Seattle metro for 2 weeks.
Nov 18, 2020 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
The recent explosion in #COVID19 cases and rising hospitalizations in WA is due to increasing prevalence in the community. Here's what we know about how many people are infected and what it means for your risk at Thanksgiving and other gatherings. Daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, and seven-day run From cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, we use math modeling to estimate the number of people infected – the prevalence – in WA over time. Prevalence is rising quickly, roughly equal to the March peak as of Nov 6, and will hit 1% by Thanksgiving if we don’t stop it. Model fit to cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, plus estim