Some quick thoughts on the second and third order geopolitical effects of the release of Alex Saab.

Ukraine, Israel, Guyana, and Ecuador/Colombia need to watch out.

But first here you can see the Heroes welcome he just received in Venezuela. 🧵 1/9 2. GUYANA 🇬🇾- Biden released Alex Saab just as Maduro is preparing to attack Guyana with armament from Iran and Russia. Who do you think helped build the sanctions-busting schemes that brought Iranian armament to Venezuela?

The resignation of Tareck El Aissami in #Venezuela has caused lots of confusion.

The prevailing narrative is that the Maduro regime is fracturing and factions are fighting. That’s the telenovela part of this.

Here is a more realistic explanation.🧵 1/12 We’ve been here before and since 2014 the VZ regime (and its defectors) have been trying to sell this false narrative of regime infighting and implosion. Why?

To deceive and provoke errors by those going against the regime. 2/12

It’s alarming when the president of Argentina 🇦🇷 spreads #misinformation about the death of a special prosecutor (Alberto Nisman) only to make a subtle threat to another current prosecutor.

This is Alberto Fernandez taking cues from Venezuela & Iran. Let me explain. 🧵 1/10 First, Nisman didn’t commit suicide. The forensic evidence and subsequent report by Arg Gendarmerie in 2017 showed this. While we still don’t know who killed Alberto Nisman we know who benefitted from his death. 2/10

I wrote a report about this in 2016: securefreesociety.org/wp-content/upl…

I’ve been studying Iran’s 🇮🇷 movements in Latin America for more than a decade and this recent incident in Argentina is very similar to IRGC modus operandi of blending commercial w/ military.

A few thoughts on the Vz/Iran plane Emtrasur YV3531 stuck in Buenos Aires. 🧵 1/11 First, there is possible misreporting about this plane and it’s passengers. The “Acta” from Arg immigration shows only 5 Iranian nationals on the plane.

But I have it on good authority that there were at least six (6) Iranian nationals on this flight.

Someone is missing? 2/11

🧵THREAD - A few key takeaways about Iran’s VP Mohsen Rezaee trip to Nicaragua 🇳🇮.

1. Iran has carefully mapped logistical routes through & around Africa that enable the IRGC to boost its Latin America presence. The route relies on Non-Aligned Movement member countries. 2. Iran and ALBA have a script and SOP for avoiding INTERPOL on these types of trips, which includes diplomatic delays and bureaucratic inertia.

Iran ran the same play for Ahmad Vahidi, former Defense Minister and current Interior Minister, in his 2011 trip to Bolivia 🇧🇴

🧵 1/4 - Hay tres cosas que el régimen de Maduro gana con la “pérdida” electoral en #Barinas

1) Legitiman la falsa elección de noviembre cediendo un estado simbólico pero no substantivo.

READ more in our latest #VRICmonitor 👇

https://twitter.com/SecureFreeSoc/status/1480675357271408646

2) Empiezan otra vez con su falsa narrativa de Madurismo v/s Chavismo, intentando vender que el entorno del régimen está dividido para que la oposición comete más errores.

Read our latest #VRICmonitor 📲 securefreesociety.org/research/latin…

1/5 quick thoughts on #Bolivia: 1) there was no coup so stop the silly talk @BernieSanders #BoliviaNoHayGolpe 2/5 Evo going to Mexico doesn’t mean he is out of the game. In fact he can cause more chaos there for the US on immigration and drug trafficking. #BoliviaNoHayGolpe