1/Something that I first observed nearly two years ago that needs to be re-emphasised today: it is not possible to plan anything during the exponential growth phase of a pandemic -- except a path out of the exponential growth phase of the pandemic.
2/Put succinctly, the 'forward planning horizon' - a timeline on which we situate our future actions and the expected actions of the world - becomes a brick wall across our path during the exponential growth of pandemic infections. Nothing is stable, nor can predictions be made.
Jan 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In NSW:
The #covid19 test positivity rate has risen once again to 21.49%, with a running seven-day average now at 14.45%.
Hospitalisations are up around 14% and likely sometime today will surpass the all-time high of 1266.
ICU admissions are also up nearly 14%.
What this means... via @smh
Jan 2, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/New South Wales is in a #covid19 emergency. That this is largely unacknowledged does nothing to alter this fact.
This is a good moment to review what is happening and what will happen as a consequence of what is happening now.
2/The public hospital system in NSW is already being pushed well beyond its normal operating capacities. We are only at the beginning of a vast wave of illness, and a corresponding vast number of people needing urgent hospital care. For some weeks to come things will get worse.
Dec 7, 2021 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
"The government will examine whether Australia should adopt a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the retail market, another recommendation of the inquiry chaired by Senator Andrew Bragg."
The Japanese are already there. Better late than never, tho.
afr.com/companies/fina…
"The Reserve Bank has been unconvinced there is a need for CBDCs that could be used by consumers, pointing to the many other ways of making electronic payments."
If CBDCs were about payments, the RBA would be on point.
They are not - this is the essence of the policy failure.
Jul 10, 2021 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
*draws a deep breath*
Ok folks, draw near, because I am going to do my best to be very honest with you in this Tweetstream. I will say things out loud that we are all thinking -- but that our leaders are somehow unable to put into words.
Things that need to be said.
1) With the current exponential growith in #covid19 infections, there is no universe in which Sydney exits from restrictions next Friday.
Or the following Friday.
Or the Friday after that.
On current trend, there is _no_ Friday when that happens.
Jul 7, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Anthony Fauci noted that 99.2% of COVID-19 deaths in June in the US were in unvaccinated people. "No vaccine is perfect. But when you talk about the avoidability of hospitalization and death, Chuck, it's really sad and tragic that most all of these are avoidable and preventable."
My prediction, since y'all asked, is that we're in lockdown for 5 more weeks -- until Friday the 13th of August, plus or minus a few days.
Jan 11, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Draw near, folks.
I am not going to talk politics. It needlessly upsets me.
That's selection pressure.
Every morning I check Hacker News (which is not for _those_ kinds of hackers, btw, but for people who practice the arts of programming), in which posts get voted to the top - and of course, this morning, several Parler alternatives have floated to the top 30.
They're all P2P.
Jul 25, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
So here's my feeling, people, after six months of watching this #pandemic unfold and ruin pretty much everything it touches: We have never really taken this as seriously as the situation requires. We have consistently brought a knife along to a gunfight.
I haven't changed my original position that we should be testing everyone in the country at a regular interval. Add to that testing of wastewater to catch hidden outbreaks and we get to strong suppression. Possibly elimination, but no one can count on that.
Mar 22, 2020 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Ok, folks, I want you all to take a DEEP breath, settle yourselves and listen carefully.
I've been collecting daily data on #covid19 infections in Australia since the 8th of March.
cont'd
I've now been collecting data for a fortnight.
In that period of time - just 14 days - we've increased 1600%.
Sixteen times.
Four doublings.
That means the cases are doubling in Australia every three and one-half days.
That, right there, must be a very, very sobering fact.
Jan 13, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Australia's new normal includes daily discussions with friends about whether their kids will be allowed to play outside today because the air quality is so bad.
Australia's new normal also includes consultation with friends on what I've named 'apocalypse googles', search terms such as 'how long does a PM2.5 mask last' and 'how do I clean a PM2.5 mask' and 'where to buy a PM2.5' mask and well you get the point here
Mar 25, 2018 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
This Facebook-has-read-your-texts-and-seen-your-phone-calls-on-Android thing is so much worse than anything I could have imagined they were up to and I imagined they were up to quite a bit tbqh.
The proof of their utter overcollection of user data is that they didn't even bother to try to remove it from the user data profile downloads.
They saw nothing wrong in this. Saw this as something people want.
They truly believe people want Facebook reading intimate texts.
Dec 29, 2017 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Let's get something perfectly clear for the economic illiterates who apparently run government ministries: WELFARE IS AN ENORMOUS BOOST TO THE ECONOMY. EVERY PENNY IS USED TO PAY FOR RENT AND FOOD AND UTILITIES.
It has a massive economic multiplier effect.
This is probably the best possible argument for mincome (UBI). The money is immediately returned to the economy which tends to amplify economic growth via increased consumer demand.
