Where is the #Bitcoin TOP?

These 20+ charts that can help you gauge late bull markets and top formations.

Long thread 🧵👇

1/ MVRV, a classic. Measures unrealized profitability and has previously signaled overheated above 7.

Currently hovering around 3 – room to grow. 2/ MVRV Pricing Bands are derived from the amount of days that MVRV has traded at extreme levels.

The top band denotes the 3.2 level, which has been exceeded for around 6% of trading days.

Its current value is $127,000.

On the recent increase of #Bitcoin transactions, and what's driving this 🧵

The number of #BTC on-chain transactions has recently seen an astounding surge, crossing 0.5 million daily transactions, with a record high of 682,000 on May 1st.

Chart: glassno.de/3VuwGTL 2/ Transaction counts rose more than 2x compared to the 2022 baseline, which had remained in a stable range of ~250k txs per day throughout last year.

The previous ATH of 490k daily transactions stems back from the heights of the 2017 bull market.

Chart: glassno.de/3VuwGTL

The recent development of #Bitcoin ordinals and inscriptions is truly astounding.

If adoption continues to accelerate, we might well see a paradigm shift in terms of network usage, block space, and fees – as suggested by the recent on-chain footprint.

A chart overview 🧵 1/ First, the average #Bitcoin block size has seen a massive increase, constantly reaching values well above 2 MB throughout the past week.

That denotes a sudden jump of 100% compared to its previous baseline.

Live chart: glassno.de/3KiPUrQ

1/ Love to see how much @glassnode workbench is being used only a couple of days after we launched it.

Short thread with examples.

How much #BTC was moved in the past 6 months? 👉 studio.glassnode.com/workbench/e9e0…

Answer: 6M (33% of supply) – 12.5M are HODLed for at least half a year. 2/ Creating a live version of @WClementeIII's #Bitcoin Delta Price / Realized Price (DPRP) Ratio

👉 studio.glassnode.com/workbench/487c…

1/ A thread on #Bitcoin miner metrics.

First, some fundamentals.

Bitcoin's average hash rate hit a new ATH yesterday – crossing a daily average of 178 exahash / sec for the first time in history.

Miners keep spinning up machines – hash rate is up only.

glassno.de/3utg7bU 2/ In fact, #Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 5.8% last Friday – to a new ATH as well.

Difficulty is up 66% over the past year, and 24% YTD.

There's your post-halving "MiNeR CaPiTuLaTioN".

Chart: glassno.de/3cStxIv

"2% of accounts control 95% of all #Bitcoin "

Wrong.

BTC ownership is much less concentrated than often reported – and has dispersed over time.

Meanwhile, whale supply has increased – suggesting institutional investors arriving.

Report: insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-supply…

THREAD 👇👇👇 1/ We split the #Bitcoin supply into network participants of varying sizes, treating miners & exchanges separately.

Our estimates:

- Whale, humpback (>1k BTC): ~31%
- Fish, dolphin, shark (50-1k BTC): ~23%
- Shrimp, crab, octopus (<50 BTC): ~23%
- Exchanges: ~13%
- Miners: ~10%

#Bitcoin is in a supply and liquidity crisis.

This is extremely bullish! And highly underrated.

I believe we will see this significantly reflected in Bitcoin's price in the upcoming months.

Let's take a look at the data.

A thread 👇👇👇 1/ Accumulation Balance

The amount of bitcoins held in accumulation addresses is 2.7M BTC.

Those are addresses that have only received bitcoins, and never spent funds.

True HODLers, hoarding 14.5 % of the circulating supply.

#Bitcoin

Chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&…

1/ Where are we in the #Bitcoin market cycle?

A look at some of the most important on-chain market indicators.

TLDR: Insanely bullish, most metrics are far from the top. If things develop anything like 2017, we could see more than 10x $BTC from here.

A THREAD 👇 2/ MVRV Z-Score ($240,000)

Current value: At only 34% of the 2017 top.

Price in 2017 increased +1,150% to ATH.

A +1,150% increase today: $BTC at $240,000

Chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&…

#Bitcoin

1/ Published a new piece that shows how we quantify the amount of #Bitcoin supply held by long-term investors and short-term traders.

Here's how these metrics currently point to the $BTC bull market.

(All data and live charts available on @glassnode.)

A thread 👇👇👇 2/ After a monthslong increase, the total #Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has recently started to decline – while $BTC appreciates.

A common pattern seen in previous bull markets, when HODLers start moving coins to take some profits.

Chart: studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&…

1/ A thread showing 12 charts that illustrate #Bitcoin investor confidence and increased HODLing behavior.

Spoiler: This is long-term extremely bullish.

(data @glassnode)

Let's dig in 👇 2/ First, the obvious one:

61% (!) of #Bitcoin supply that hasn't moved in over a year – that's an all-time high.

Moreover, 44% hasn't moved in 2+ years (approaching ATH), and almost 30% hasn't moved in 3+ years.

Loads of hodling here.

studio.glassnode.com/compare?a=BTC&…

1/ #Bitcoin fundamentals are stronger than ever.

As the halving approaches, let's zoom out and look at how on-chain fundamentals have developed historically, and how they compare to the last halving.

TL;DR – Network fundamentals are compelling; long-term bullish $BTC

THREAD 👇 2/ NETWORK GROWTH

The number of #Bitcoin addresses is steadily increasing and currently at ATH. It recently crossed the milestone of 30 million addresses.

That's an increase of +234% since the last halving four years ago.