Wildfire (and the resulting smoke) may be the climate change-exacerbated disaster that is most likely to negatively impact the most people in the US who are the least prepared for it. Why is this? Most hazards have pretty well-defined geography. Water pools in low spots. Earthquakes occur along faults. Hurricanes form in the Atlantic. But wildfire can literally occur anywhere there is vegetation. That’s 98% of the land surface of the US.

Friends, there is a new paper out from a certain activist who pretends to be a fire scientist. Let's look at the methods to understand how science can be manipulated and fool people very easily. Grad students: do NOT do what this person did. A thread on doing robust science. 1/ First, the paper is here: mdpi.com/2673-6004/2/4/…. It initially looks like there is a lot of data used, and the data are from official sources. USFS records on snag density, forest management, and burn severity, from BAER. Note that BAER is about soil burn severity, not veg. 2/

We hit a #wildfire milestone today. It is the 63rd day for @NIFC_Fire to be at Preparedness Level (PL) 5 in 2021, breaking the record of 62 days set in 2002 (records start in 1990). 1/4
If you're not familiar with the PL index, great explainer here: nifc.gov/sites/default/… When @NIFC_Fire is at PL5, it means everyone eligible becomes available for fire assignments. It means we have too many complex fires going in multiple regions. It means firefighters are exhausted and can't catch a break, because they go from one assignment to the next. 2/4

Yesterday's #Washingtonfire in Tuolumne County was an excellent reminder of why size is a poor metric for fires. It was only 81 acres, not enough to even need a 209 report. But bc of where it started, 8 homes were lost, pets and livestock were killed. It was a disaster. 1/5 You might think "oh, it's only 8 homes." But these were all primary homes, not cabin/vacation homes. Since we scientists like to normalize when we compare things, you could even argue that at 1 home/10 ac, it has the highest area-weighted losses (0.1 h/ac) of 2021 so far. 2/5

I'm very cautious about effectiveness of aircraft on #wildfires -- they are fantastic under certain circumstances, and just a huge waste of money in others. Was able to watch the air show streaming on #Airola fire this afternoon and took some screenshots for an explainer. 1/10 First, the set up for an airshow on this fire was basically ideal. Why?
➡️ Minimal wind and excellent visibility
➡️ Terrain was perfect for approach and drops
➡️ Top of the ridge was a grass-covered lava cap
➡️ Columbia airport 2 min away for reload
➡️ Reservoir RIGHT THERE
2/10

As the #CaldorFire moves further east towards the high country, it will begin to hit areas affected by the large blowdown event this last winter. This is what we often describe as interacting forest disturbances, and it can result in unexpected fire behavior. 1/8 A very strong east wind event hammered much of the Sierra on January 18-19th, knocking down thousands of large, otherwise healthy green trees. While east wind events are not uncommon in the Sierra (and can fuel fires in the autumn), this was particularly bad timing. 2/8

If you are following the #CaldorFire or any other large fire, they are nearly all doing these streamed FB briefings now, often 2x/day. It's a great place to hear what the fire is doing, what the areas are they are worried about, and where they are building containment line. 1/4

https://twitter.com/CALFIREAEU/status/1429593494511710208

On big fires, they are usually building line ahead of the fire, where they think they have the best chance of holding it safely. This is a hard lesson learned from many firefighters dying in the past. @BigWhiteFireDog wrote a great thread on this. 2/4

https://twitter.com/BigWhiteFireDog/status/1428583752335335430

This week, USFS chief Moore suspended Managed Wildfire and Prescribed Fire and pushed to suppress all fires quickly. Here's why that's a horrible decision that only exacerbates the wildfire problem. 🧵1/ n wildfiretoday.com/2021/08/03/for… 1) It puts firefighter lives at risk. Wilderness fires are some of the most difficult and dangerous to fight bc you can't use motorized equipment, the terrain is incredibly challenging, and it's very difficult to get in and out. Escape routes are limited if things blow up. 2/n

I'm beyond 💔- I'm furious. We KNOW how to mitigate these disasters: prescribed fire, fuel reduction, structure hardening, etc. Politicians REFUSE to fund it, empower the right people, and change policies to support it. We CAN live w/ #wildfire, even under climate change. 🧵 1/

https://twitter.com/stuartpalley/status/1423162562397437962

I'm tired of hearing about "managed retreat" from fire. Everywhere can burn. We will have to retreat from some areas due to drought & sea level rise - those are almost impossible to mitigate. But we can mitigate severe wildfire through smart planning and managing the land. 2/

#wildfire mitigation strategies: a thread. The goal of many #wildfire mitigation strategies is NOT to stop a fire. It is to alter fire behavior, lower intensity, reduce embers, facilitate safe evacuation, and support firefighter safety. 1/n Fuel treatments have repeatedly brought crown fire to the ground, lessened spotting distance and density of embers, and often occur along roads specifically to mitigate the situation we saw in Paradise -- trapped vehicles with trees falling on roads and high fire intensity.