#Bitcoin $BTC - Signal2Noise Weekly Update
1/7

Current S2N Ratio: 1.46x
in % of "Blow-off top" S2N values: 4%
in % of "2021 Top" S2N values: 7%
in % of S2N=10x values: 15%

As of TODAY the price of $BTC could be at
USD 148,114 for a S2N peak ~20x
USD 91,226 for a S2N peak ~10x 2/7

The S2N ratio defines how many units of volatility
the current price is sitting above or below a long-term average.
As volatility changes over time, the ratio produces comparable peak/trough values over time, which many other metrics don't (e.g. Mayer Multiple).

#Bitcoin $BTC

Bull Market or Bear Market ?

Or: maybe that's the wrong question.

Thread 🧵 The study of BTCs price history teaches us the 4 year boom and bust cycle. However, one needs to ask the question, whether this pattern will continue or whether it was maybe driven by very specific factors and whether these factors might change.

#Bitcoin

Hey, my favorite $BTC "Analyst" just educated me that higher 10Y yields will drive #BTC up.

Now Yield are even breaking out but $BTC is down?

I told you before, these guys are absolutely clueless about #Macro.

🧵Thread 👇

https://twitter.com/signal2noisebtc/status/1477945846750760965

First, technically speaking, as shown in the previous tweet, correlations change over time and are not consistent. Just because some guys hold two chart patterns next to each other has nothing to do with long-term correlations. Correlations can change rapidly.

#Bitcoin $BTC Update - What's next?

1/8 🧵

Short TA update first
✅Reclaim of support line.

Believe it or not, this is a better spot than 49k on Dec 22, as we are now still above the major downtrend (d1)

Bull div building. We could at least see a small bounce here soon. 2/8

However, the real trend is difficult to predict, I think we saw a lot of reshuffling from Asian investors / tax related selling.

Huobi BTC balance down 200k coins since May, Dec alone 30k, while Binance up ca. 30k and total market balance flattish.

#Bitcoin $BTC - Short-term view
1/4
As mentioned in the previous longer thread, I want to see a decisive break of the 52-54k level.

Yesterday, selling came back exactly at 52k. Pretty weak PA, also considering how strong equities have performed these days.

https://twitter.com/2210ft/status/1474359019288543238

2/4
The break of the downtrend was also not comparable to the last two ones, where we went for an almost 25% uninterrupted move from the breaks of the downtrend + a spike in volume on the moves up (See volume oscillator)

#Bitcoin $BTC update - HTF picture
1/25
The recent move above 51k was encouraging as we have left the major downtrend.

What is next?

A) TA Update
B) S2N Update
C) On-chain metrics
D) Derivatives/Leverage
F) Macro

🧵 2/25
1) TA Update

The chart above uses a little "trick". Instead of using the a often quite noisy 4h-1d candlestick chart I sometimes use a rolling 24h chart based on a 4h chart that nicely reduces the noise and provides a clear picture of market structure.

#Bitcoin update
1/12
The key question is whether we are still in a bull market.

I took a different look at this question in terms of a new way of measuring cycle lengths through my S2N Ratio model.

Thread 👇 2/12
What I have done in the chart is to graph the S2N ratio on the chart to indicate the key levels. The red line, is where the S2N reaches 35, i.e. price is 35 vol units away from 200 week MA.

Thoughts on my strategy and reflecting on psychology.
1/6
On Friday I sold out my ALTs and some BTC futs. Now c. 40% cash, 40% BTC spot and 20% non crypto. Capital preservation is prio 1,2 and 3 and I rather look like an idiot if the market turns but I want to protect my capital. 2/6
I still strongly believe this is NOT the end of the bull market (will publish some analysis later on).

I'm sharing this info, as I made an interesting psychological observation of myself. Actually it is interesting how this step cleared my mind.

#Bitcoin update
Reflections on May 19
1/15
The target of my analyses is always aimed at two questions:

1. Are we still in a macro bull cycle
2. If 1 = yes, are we at an intermediate cycle that calls for adding or potentially reducing risk, i.e. are we overbought / oversold.

https://twitter.com/2210ft/status/1394773964514336776

2/15
I believe that we will see further cycles in the market and I rather want to reduce some risk at the end phase of a bull market and put cash aside and add at depressed levels instead of watching the decline and holding through it.

#Bitcoin update
1/6
Long-term holder selling slowing is still signaling a high confidence as evidenced by Coin Days Destroyed. 2/6
Historical peaks saw this metric exploding higher into the blow off tops - this has not happend this time, so this makes a macro top unlikely.

Now comes the interesting part:

#Bitcoin update
1/5
If you buy into the Options Max Pain theory where market makers have an incentive to push prices of the underlying towards the price where most options expire worthless, there is some short term technical support around the expiry on May 21. Max pain is 54k 2/5
As a lot of put OI is sitting around 47k, pushing prices above this range would result in these puts expiring worthless.

#Bitcoin update
1/8
Institutional buyers on Coinbase are accumulating throughout this consolidation phase with another strong outflow just recently. 2/8

Key on chain cycle indicators are leaving their (over)heated ranges and are now at levels from which significant upside has been realized in past cycles.

#Bitcoin update
1/21

USD 300k per #Bitcoin is possible according to this ratio.

I usually try to avoid price predictions, but next to my S2N-Ratio that also points towards a potential price of 300k, this simple long-term chart confirms this as well. 2/21
The chart shows ratios of 1) the return from the low of a cycle to the previous peak and 2) the return from the previous peak to the new cycle peak. E.g. for previous cycle: low to 2014 peak (C): 7.2x return and 2014 peak to new 2017 peak (D): 16.8x return. 16.8/7.2 = 2.3.

#Bitcoin update

1/14

On a morning like this it feels good to almost have no emotion and be reminded that buying and just HODLing #Bitcoin and analyzing the short-term charts rather out of curiosity and risk management - but not trading it - is a good place 2 b. ;-)

https://twitter.com/2210ft/status/1383136330062966784

2/14
I have reattached my previous tweet above as I still think you can read from it what drives this cycle and makes it very robust and it answers the questions to many metrics that we currently regularly see, like decreasing liquid supply/ balance on exchanges etc.

#Bitcoin update - this one is important
1/n
This chart shows the entity and supply adjusted coin years destroyed and I think it is bullish as hell and shows how this cycle is different and why we see certain trends such as declining exchange balances.

Thread 👇 2/n
The metric shows the rolling sum over 1 year of coin days destroyed. When it rises, more older coins got sold and this signals that longer-term holders are less confident in further upside and/or realize profits.

#Bitcoin update
1/n
Today: Volatility Analysis.

The next leg up could take us to >100k if volatility dynamics repeat from past cycle.

Thread👇 2/n The first indicator "ATR-Ratio" shows the ratio of short term (10 days) to medium term volatility (100 days). Higher values indicate higher volatility then trend and vice versa.

1/
#Bitcoin update

As I see many discussions on whether #Bitcoin has printed a top, there is a clear answer: NO.

Various metrics support this, but just look at the #Bitcoin supply distribution in late 2017 vs now, which I have not commented on so intensively so far: 2/
In late 2017 80% of supply was concentrated at 8.1k and below. The peak was around 19.6k. A ratio of 2.4. Everything above 8.1k was only backed by 20% of supply!

1/n
#Bitcoin update
I will from now on publish regular updates based on a Signal-to-Noise Ratio, which I previously called "Bubble-Lines" to analyse #BTC cycles and price targets (potentially > 200k this cycle).

What is the Signal-to-Noise Ratio?

(Thread👇) 2/n
It measures the deviation of the price of an asset to its moving average and divides this by a measure of volatility, in this case the realized range (i.e. delta of high-low values per time interval, averaged over the same time as the price).