Thread on the government cravenly trying to strangle the Commission on Taxation and Welfare's report before it is even published. 🧵 First, read this. irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/0…. Essentially you have 1/3 of the government coming out and saying 'nah' to the proposals. That is, they are briefing *against* the report they commissioned. This is not only dangerous, it is populist and irresponsible.

The story of the time I filled a bath with sparkling water for Whitney Houston. (With thanks to sustained prodding/mild bullying from @NewLeftEviews). @NewLeftEViews All right. You all clearly like extremely long threads. Here's another one. It involves a man the size of a fridge, me filling a bath with sparkling water for one of the world's most talented singers, some minor gobshites, and one major gobshite.

A little personal news. As of today I'm Professor of Economics at the University of Limerick. I'm not here to humblebrag though. I want to tell you a story involving a friendly tractor, a Hugo Boss suit, and some shoes. I'm doing this silly thread instead of thanking everyone. Why not thank everyone? Partly because that list is truly, truly huge, and partly because I was only formally promoted today. Everyone who knows me has known about the promotion since early December.

I’ve been thinking a bit about the pandemic unemployment payment/travel debate a little today. A short thread: If you accept that those who are ‘pandemic unemployed’ are categorically different from the ‘regularly unemployed’—and the CSO shows them as counted differently—then why do we have to treat them as ‘actively seeking work’ and thus impose regular travel strictures upon them?

One thing the last crisis taught me was a deep distrust of dominant narratives and numbers expressed or compared without understanding the uncertainty around them. Popular threads around #COVID19 feature ample amounts of both today. Tools I use to get around these: 1. Write out the opposite of the argument advanced. Eg: The UK death rate, higher than The Irish rate, is not a function of the policy failures of an inept govt but the increased population densities of U.K. cities. This argument might be true. It might not. But it is plausible.

Thread on economic response to #COVID19 so far by the Irish authorities. Less than 2 weeks ago: €435m for HSE, 2.6bn for income+cash flow supports, exactly in line with IMF recommendations. (The ECB then weighed in with €750bn for the Eurozone, which helped later decisions). Then a range of policies for borrowers, stamp duty, property tax deferrals, helping renters, and more. gov.ie/en/news/878d4d…. Health spending now essentially without limit. Testing for #COVID19 at high per capita levels relative to other countries.

Right. Bit of a #GE2020 thread--900 words or so--on why I believe @sinnfeinireland not only should but *must* go into government, inspired by Bertie Ahern, but with some numbers. (I know, I know). Bear with me. SF is the most popular party in the country with over 24% of the popular vote. That's a bare fact no one can dispute. You've heard the talking points about everyone being surprised by that including them, I won't rehash them, but the change is remarkable & should be acknowledged

A few thoughts on the approach of people trying to start Ireland's 'immigration debate'. 1. The framing of the question as a 'debate' about inward migration (as opposed to net, or outward, migration) sets it up as a problem to be solved via policy means. But we can't actually do that, even if we wanted to. Here's what migration looks like over the last 10 years.