Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GE2020

Most recents (24)

If Ireland 🇮🇪 is heading for its first "Grand Coalition", then we better have a look at how other countries have gone about it. #ge2020 #twip

Yes, I have a data table. 📊

And yes, this is a [thread]. 😎

Let's begin. 🏃‍♂️

1/
So the first thing that jumps out is that there is no "rotating Chancellor" or "rotating Prime Minister".

The party that holds the most seats gets to appoint the Head of Government. 🏆

That's true even when the government parties have near-equal seats in parliament.

2/
That's not to say that FF and FG couldn't come to an arrangement on a "rotating Taoiseach", it's just that it was never tried in Austria 🇦🇹, Netherlands 🇳🇱 or Germany 🇩🇪.

It would be a *first* among modern European coalitions 🇪🇺.

3/
Read 16 tweets
1/8 Some thoughts on the discussions on government formation #ge2020
2/8 First, 24.53 is not a majority. Its not close. There is zero obligation on the 75.47% of other voters to be ignored. SF have no *RIGHT* to power. The have a solid claim on being involved but this is not a right and they not being in power is not anti-democratic #ge2020
3/8 Second, there is no majority for a "left" government. SF+SD+PBP+LAB is just over 34% #ge2020
Read 8 tweets
Switch over to BBC2 now. You won’t want to miss it. #Newsnight
.@lisanandy says the leadership contest and debate has been “so very small.” Says the party won’t reconnect with voters by having “debates about reselection or grandstanding about illegal wars” #newsnight
.@EmilyThornberry: “we may be throwing anti-Semites out of the party now- why weren’t we doing it 2.5 years ago?” #newsnight
Read 7 tweets
Thread: As the dust settles on #GE2020 I've been doing some analysis on the #DublinFingal tally and comparing it to 2016. It comes with the health warning that the tallies were 95%+ accurate on a candidate level and that not all polling stations are the same in both elections
2/Before looking at candidate performances, a brief note on turnout. Turnout was down slightly (65% to 63%), but in numerical terms there were just over 3000 additional votes cast in 2020 vs 2016. The constituency had the same number of seats (5), & the quota rose by about 500.
3/With regards to the tally, a cross party tally was conducted, with the live tally online being collated by myself and Emma Boyne on behalf of Fianna Fáil. We collaborated with all parties and candidates present, cross checking against the Green Parties separate collation.
Read 45 tweets
1/22 After #GE2020, we have been trawling through our JCFJ archives. For 40 years we have been fighting for social justice in Ireland, and through the lens of Peter McVerry, we've watched the housing crisis develop up close. A thread on why we need a total change in direction:
2/22 The crisis is at an unparalleled level but it has been brewing for decades. In 1997 when the Celtic Tiger was first roaring, Peter wrote to the Irish Times in May to lament the scale of tax cuts, while disabled teenagers slept on the streets. Nothing new under the sun, eh?
3/22 By 2001 housing costs were spiralling. This became a major factor in the collapse of the economy of 2008. In #ge2020 the party committed to controlling rents has enjoyed unprecedented success. Here's Peter suggesting such policies a generation ago:
irishtimes.com/celtic-tiger-l…
Read 22 tweets
What happens now with #ge2020 and the next Irish govt? (Thread)

Reminder: this is big stuff.

Neither Irish politics, NI politics nor Anglo-Irish politics has had to deal with Sinn Féin so powerful across the island of Ireland before. Nor has Ireland voted left before.
Won’t go into all the details as to why this happened, have done so already, if you missed it, here is my take on that here.

In short, FF/FG, in their own respective ways, completely misjudged the public mood. SF got it completely right.
It’s vulgar but this has been a common refrain doing the rounds among voters about the difference between and antics of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil (via @Limerick_Leader).
Read 18 tweets
Short thread on #GE2020
There will be lots of opinion pieces in the aftermath of a seismic weekend in Irish politics. What does it mean? What happens next? Who will lead the next Dáil?
So I guess we should address those points one by one.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been able, during the 70s and 80s,to count on 80+% of electoral support between them.
This has been declining steadily, until this weekend, when their joint support amounted to less than 45%.
Change has been coming for a long time, so writing off
the surge in SF support as just another populist protest vote is well wide of the mark. The move to the left is there to see, not only in the rise of Sinn Féin, but also improved performances from the Social Democrats, Sol-PBP, Greens and non-affiliated Independents.
Read 10 tweets
Just interviewed @MaryLouMcDonald.

Lots to say:

-She should become Taoiseach as she won.
-if she does she will start preparing for a border poll straight away and ask @BorisJohnson to do same.
-says she wants EU to shift policy to favour Irish unification (a la Germany/Cyprus).
Mary Lou McDonald tells me she sees the election result as an endorsement of their message on public services but about “an end to partition” too. #ge2020
McDonald also told me she hasn’t had any contact from FF or FG. Confirms she still wants a govt without either in it. Says it’s “the utmost hypocrisy” that their position has been they won’t work with SF, given they insist on others doing so in NI. #ge2020
Read 6 tweets
Lots of counting still going on in Dublin...#ge2020
In Dublin Bay North, for example, we’re on the eighth count, with only one TD of five elected.
Just spoke to PBP’s Conor Reddy. 24 year old housing activist looking likely he’ll be elected. Urges SF to keep out or govt this time. Says if the left can force FG/FF into coalition, they can destroy them and have a full left wing govt next time. This is the conundrum SF faces.
Read 3 tweets
Right. Bit of a #GE2020 thread--900 words or so--on why I believe @sinnfeinireland not only should but *must* go into government, inspired by Bertie Ahern, but with some numbers. (I know, I know). Bear with me.
SF is the most popular party in the country with over 24% of the popular vote. That's a bare fact no one can dispute. You've heard the talking points about everyone being surprised by that including them, I won't rehash them, but the change is remarkable & should be acknowledged
What I think is interesting is the 'excess' demand for SF amongst voters. Listening to the counts come in yesterday I was struck by the size of the first preference vote coming in for SF. The supply of SF candidates clearly didn't meet voter demand. But by how much?
Read 22 tweets
Short thread on Irish election #GE2020 for my non-Irish followers. 1. #FF the party that informed Peter Mair’s ‘cartel party’ will not be a cartel party again. It will never regain its pre-crash standing. 2. SF emerged as the largest party in vote terms. @BrigidLaffan
The performance of #SF was a surprise given their 2019 EP & local elections performance but they managed to frame a manifesto that really resonated with the electorate @BrigidLaffan
The election was not about BREXIT but domestic issues-housing & health were the top two. Irish voters not concerned about jobs or the economy for the first time in 10 years. @BrigidLaffan
Read 9 tweets
Confirmed: Sinn Féin have come first in the popular vote on first preferences.

First time a left of centre party has “won” an Irish election. First either FF or FG hasn’t come first for virtually the entire history of the Irish state. #GE2020
To those appearing on my timeline saying this is down to Brexit and will hasten demise of the union.

Yes and no...

This was not a vote about Brexit. It was barely an issue in #ge2020.

That said, clearly a Dail/govt/Irish politics with SF as a major player will change things.
It is also probably not a complete coincidence that SF has experienced a profound surge just after a period where Anglo-Irish relations (and power dynamics) have once again been a dominant theme of Irish discourse and political life.

That said, it’s not the major driving factor.
Read 3 tweets
25 years ago this week, I came back to Ireland from London to report the abuse I suffered at the hands of a Catholic priest to the Gardaí. An Ireland still dominated by the Church & other orthodoxies. Where the idea that the state should hold the church to account was unthinkable
An Ireland where women's rights and LGBT rights were denied on the basis that they were a threat to the moral order. Where we were told we were not capable of addressing such injustices...incapable of even talking about them.
Where when I called for a state investigation into sexual abuse by clerics, we were told that the state had no business investigating the church, that it would be unconstitutional (I kid you not!). We were told that church law was superior to the law of the state.
Read 12 tweets
For all those harping on Ireland’s election results being “bad for Britain” or the UK or Bojo... it’s not about any of that!
It’s about IRELAND.

Because she’s tired. Her wane have grown & they are speaking. They have thoughts. Very few are about the UK, Brexit... the EU even/1
They are localised. As they should be. Their health care, housing, homelessness, education... none of which equates to a “Stick it to the British” voting scheme.

This is about us! Here on the island. Our needs & wants. /2
Could it lead to unity?
Feck let’s figure out if it can lead to a majority at some point 😂 walk before you run folks ... pinch of salt & all that.
But thinking it’s all because of Brexit is lazy & self involved.
Ireland rises... I & many others have handed her to our wane/3
Read 5 tweets
Lots of counting still to do and lots of transfers still to be made but this is where we are:

SF: 21
FF: 1
FG: 1
G: 1

#GE2020

Extraordinary.
They must be absolutely kicking themselves they didn’t put up more candidates.
RTE saying there are at least six extra seats SF would have picked up had they put up more candidates.
Read 7 tweets
First time since 1932 that either FF/FG haven’t come first in an Irish election. First time a party of the left has come first in an Irish election. #GE2020 is truly historic.
Though of course, this is just the popular vote. Entirely possible if not probably that because of SF decision to limit number of candidates they don’t come first in terms of number of seats.
Both Varadkar and Martin have a big decision to make. Both have said they won’t work with SF. Speaking to Martin earlier in the week, you can feel how visceral is his distaste for them. But neither do (and they won’t work govern together) hard to see where a maj comes from.
Read 6 tweets
SF looks like it had a cracking night in Dublin. FG topped the poll here in 2016. #GE2020
Another superb result from Dublin for SF. They came clear second in Dublin Mid West in 2016.
Another excellent showing for SF. In 2016 they didn’t even get a TD elected in Meath East. Now they’ve leapfrogged two FG TDs (including a minister) and FF (who topped the poll last time). This is a real surge.
Read 5 tweets
Ipsos MRBI #ge2020 exit poll geographical breakdown, versus GE16 result...

Dublin (2016 v poll projection)

FG 21.6% v 21.1%
FF 16.8% v 14%
SF 14.1% v 22.3%
Greens 4.2% v 12.9%
Labour 8.7% v 8.1%
SolPBP 8.7% v 7%
SD 4.6% v 6.1%
Inds and others 21.2% v 8.5%
Rest of Leinster (2016 v 2020 exit poll)

FG 25.8% ➡️ 21.7%
FF 28.0% ➡️ 25.9%
SF 15.1% ➡️ 24.1%
Lab 7.4% ➡️ 5.1%
Green 2.7% ➡️ 5.1%
SD 5% ➡️ 3.6%
SolPBP 1.8% ➡️ 1.8%
Others 14.2% ➡️ 12.8%
Munster (2016 v 2020 exit poll)

FG 26.6 ➡️ 24.5
FF 25.5 ➡️ 25.6
SF 10.4 ➡️ 18.2
Lab 7.5 ➡️ 3.6
Green 2.3 ➡️ 7.4
SolPBP 3.1 ➡️ 0.7
SD 1.2 ➡️ 2.5
Inds and others 23.4 ➡️ 17.5
Read 4 tweets
Just landed to quite the exit poll! FF/FG/SF all on 22%. As predicted, #ge2020 marks the true completion of the fragmentation of Irish politics started by the crash. irishtimes.com/news/politics/…
Disappointing for Martin and FF who according to this will be third (!) in vote share. Varadkar still in the game. Both FF/FG set to lose seats. Huge break through for SF (up from 14%). #ge2020. Will be v hard to form a govt. Another election could be on the cards. #ge2020
Bear in mind though, all of this is to play out in the constituencies. 40 constituencies makes the system relatively disproportionate for a PR system. Much will come down to the individual results and relatively fine margins seat numbers will be crucial.
Read 11 tweets
Thread: Quite a few people refer to Fine Gael as ‘Blueshirts’ given that part of their origin is derived from a Fascist movement. Let’s look at how this Irish conservative party was formed & the politics of the 1930s #GE2020
The Blueshirts began in 1932. At first the focus was on sports in local chapters. Many saw it as a social community & not a political one & this was its initial strategy. It had three newspapers: The Blue Shirt, the Blue Flag & United Ireland
New chapters & social events were initiated by activists cycling around the country in mobile units. At the time in Ireland social activities were community based & the High Nelly the chief means of transport. It sometimes mirrored the approach of the British Union of Fascists
Read 21 tweets
Whatever happens with the Sinn Féin surge, #ge2020 has been the most exciting Irish election in decades. It potentially marks the normalisation and denormalisation of Irish politics at the same time. My take here. bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Irish politics is now truly fragmented. We’ve talked about a SF surge (and their sudden gains are quite something) but we’re still talking about three major parties on between 20-25 points a piece. All the parties are relatively weak.
Nonetheless- This election seems to be accelerating the process of ending the FF/FG hegemony. Think how dominant Fianna Fáil used to be in particular. Martin still the most likely next Taoiseach but on a paltry vote share. They’re only up six or so points on their 2011 wipeout.
Read 5 tweets
Psychologists are supposed to care. Yet when one reads a good deal of our insulated ideas, we often come across as a gated community. We create silos of self-congratulatory feedback loops devoid of ecological authenticity.
Experience in its multi-layered…lnkd.in/gafmKiT
From beginning of American history, people with disabilities have been a part of our country. Often segregated and ignored, disability community has fought4equality, inclusion&access2American dream.... It’s time4us to acknowledge that disability rights are civil rights Sanders
a society that does not center the voices and needs of people with disabilities has yet to fulfill its most basic obligations."
Senator Bernie Sanders
Read 6 tweets
RTE #PrimeTime debate night. #ge2020
.@MaryLouMcDonald arrives.

Real conundrum for the other two as to how to treat her. They need to damage her prospects but if they attack her too much in unison, just plays to inevitable line that they’re the establishment looking to undermine the change...#GE2020
Excitement mounting backstage, 40 mins or so to air...
Read 21 tweets
The woman of the moment, @MaryLouMcDonald making a policy statement on banking and insurance in Dublin. It’s domestic policies, the fact they’re different from the duopoly, which is giving them real momentum...#GE2020
McDonald: “People aren’t fools. @MichealMartinTD can huff and puff but he’s been in govt with @LeoVaradkar for 4 years. There isn’t a whit of difference between them. People want to end the monopoly of power these two parties have had for 100 years and they see SF as the change.”
McDonald rules out confidence and supply: “it’s a con. If you’re in government you’re in government.”

Everyone is ruling out everything in #ge2020. Someone is (probably) going to have to move in the end..:
Read 6 tweets

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