1/n I am no expert on geopolitics. For that, I defer to @Geo_papic @JacobShap, @reziemba, and @Bob_McNally, among others (and fade everything @PeterZeihan says).

But I do have some thoughts on the energy implications of this week's attack by Hamas on Israeli citizens. 🛢️ 2/n Firstly, this weekend's attacks in isolation has little to no impact on physical oil flows.

The run-up in crude prices this morning feels overdone, although there is certainly the potential for a move higher in crude prices based on what happens in coming weeks.

@PotenPartners deep dive on the outlook for US LNG is beginning momentarily. The focus is on the slate of pre-FID projects that may or may not greenlight new projects in the near-term.

I'll be channelling my inner @ed_fin in the upcoming thread. 👇 Ahead of the presentation, see below five of the US projects I've been keeping an eye on.

Offtake contracts are key for FID decisions. So too is securing necessary regulatory permits, bank financing, and EPC commitments.

Really looking forward to this @Vortexa & @EurasiaGroup presentation on Russian fossil energy exports.

Will be tweeting live, a la @ed_fin. 👇 1/n Russia crude exports have been robust (including this January), flows have shifted considerably, China and India have fantastic bargaining power.

A really great piece by @Bruegel_org with some surprising takeaways from the past year. Most surprising has been the resilience of EU's manufacturing sector.

Great work - @McwilliamsBen, @Tagliapietra_S, @GeorgZachmann

bruegel.org/policy-brief/e… In all three of Bruegel's modeled scenarios, gas supply in 2023 will undershoot historical EU demand, implying that reductions remain essential.

Interesting article by @CSIS, discussing the potential for greater Chinese military presence in the Middle East to protect energy interests.

Worth a read 👇

features.csis.org/hiddenreach/ch… China's expansion in Djibouti is an interesting case study for potential expansion in the UAE.

"Russia spent almost 50 years building its energy market in Europe. President Vladimir Putin destroyed it in under 50 weeks. Finding a replacement will be almost impossible."

A timely piece by @JLeeEnergy "The flow of refined products is following the same trajectory ahead of similar sanctions that come into effect on Feb. 5."

Except the pre-embargo trajectory for Russian diesel has differed materially from crude.

Marko's two-month-old warning seems to have aged well.

To his point, Russian oil production and exports have been remarkably stable this past year. What happens to Iranian oil exports going forward? And what will be the implications for shipping lanes?

1/n 🧵👇

https://twitter.com/Geo_papic/status/1595299050437255169

2/n Lots of rumors flying around about what happened in Iran tonight.

At the very least, drones attacked a military plant in Iran’s central city of Isfahan, Tehran (per CNN). It will be interesting to see how other many cities were attacked.

https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1619521173360111616?s=20&t=0O-NP5Pr15Mei82CqTFzuw

@PotenPartners 2023 LNG Outlook starting now.

In the spirit of @ed_fin, I'll be sharing a few highlights of the presentation.

1/n 🧵 "Biggest surprise of 2022 was sustained exports through the summer, which is typically maintenance season."

Globally, LNG exports have grown at ~20-30 Mtpa over the past two years.

2/n 👇

In 2021, Europe imported ~158 Bcm of Russian #natgas.
By 2027, that figure is (supposedly) going to be 0 Bcm.

How do the Europeans get that done? Time for a 🧵 1/n Firstly, how does Europe plan to move away from Russian gas?

1. Moar US #LNG.
2. Increased energy efficiency.
3. More renewable energy deployment.
4. Healthy doses of optimism and idealism.

See @EU_Commission statement below.

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…