Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #natgas

Most recents (24)

Eni: Has Started Procedure to Open Account with Gazprom Bank. Procedure Will Be Without Acceptance of Contractual Amendments Unilaterally Requested. In Porcess of Opening Two K Current Accounts at Gazprom Bank on Precautionary Basis, One in Euros, One in Roubles.
#ONGT #natgas
Eni: Decision Has Been Shared with the Italian Institutions in Compliance with Current International Sanctions Framework. Gazprom Export, Russian Authorities Have Confirmed Invoicing, Payment Will Continue in Euros.
#ONGT #natgas
Eni: Moscow Stock Exchange Will Carry out Conversion into Roubles, Without Involvement of Central Bank of Russia.
#ONGT #natgas
Read 5 tweets
Thread on the risks of Europ's increased dependence on US LNG
1- Among the pillars of energy security:
a- Diversification of energy sources
b- Diversification of energy imports
c- Low volatility of energy prices
d- Affordability and reliability
#Russia #Natgas #LNG #EU
2- Answer the following:
a- Who benefited the most from stopping Nordstearm 2?
b- Who was the Marketing-in-Cheif of US LNG?
c- Who took advantage of Russian invasion of Ukraine to secure US LNG market share in Europe?
d- Which country is the largest gas exporter to Europe now?
3- Europe has not learned its lesson... yet!

- All they are doing now is shifting dependence from the "mined" fossil fuels to the "mined" minerals needed for the "claimed" carbon neutrality.
and most importantly: shifting Europe's dependence from Russian gas to US gas!
Read 13 tweets
We think WINGAS was not recently really receiving much #natgas from #Gazprom. Which means these sanctions may be more symbolic than anything else, especially for the summer. The sanctioning of EuRoPol Gaz could prove to be problematic for the winter. 1/3
While #Gazprom has not been using it much recently, flows west at Mallnow do still happen when LTCs are in the money vs #TTF. So come winter if buyers want the top of their ToP, there is less seller-flexibility, especially as Gazprom also no longer has storage within the EU. 2/3
The role of NEL, OPAL and Gascade, which are NOT on the list, is something to note too. This allows #Gazprom to continue to delivery to its customers' title transfer points which are south or west of Germany. #TTF #ONGT #natgas 3/3
Read 3 tweets
Natural Gas up to $7.88 at NYMEX
"For some reason I feel like people keep shorting NG and keep getting forced to cover. Not complaining lol." - message from a friend this morning. #natgas
Nat gas over $8 at NYMEX. Approaching multi decade highs.
Read 5 tweets
In 2021, Europe imported ~158 Bcm of Russian #natgas.
By 2027, that figure is (supposedly) going to be 0 Bcm.

How do the Europeans get that done? Time for a 🧵
1/n Firstly, how does Europe plan to move away from Russian gas?

1. Moar US #LNG.
2. Increased energy efficiency.
3. More renewable energy deployment.
4. Healthy doses of optimism and idealism.

See @EU_Commission statement below.…
2/n Specifically, within the EU's statement is the commitment to increase LNG imports from the US by:

15 Bcm in 2022
50 Bcm by [2027]

Seems pretty doable? Until you actually dig into it.
Read 11 tweets
Ora attendo gli insulti: Putin ha fatto una gran mossa con il pagamento del #natgas in rubli! Purtroppo per noi ha fatto scacco matto e ci ha messo nella posizione di dover decidere tra: (1) finanziare la Russia; (2) entrare in piena crisi energetica
Purtroppo, a differenza delle credenze della maggior parte di operatori, i contratti a lungo termine sono in dollari, non in rubli..quindi il ‘gas al 40% in meno’ è solo un’illusione
Mentre non è un’illusione la decisione che si dovrà prendere…e certamente scacco matto di Putin..qualsiasi decisione prenderà il governo italiano o tedesco sarà certamente criticata
Read 5 tweets
British wholesale gas contract for April rises 30% to record 455.04 pence/therm.
#ONGT #natgas
Dutch wholesale gas contract for day-ahead delivery rises 21.7% to record high 188 euros/MWh.
#ONGT #natgas
European natural gas futures rise to record 200 euros/MWh.
#ONGT #natgas
Read 5 tweets
Qatar's Kaabi says gas producing countries disagree with non-UN economic sanctions against GECF member states – Doha declaration
#Russia #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaCrisis #Qatar
UAE energy minister, when asked about oil markets, says it’s not an issue of supply and demand, it is geopolitics.
#Russia #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaCrisis #OOTT
UAE energy minister says cannot comment on Iran nuclear deal as has not happened yet.
Read 12 tweets
1/ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on his Western partners, who apparently did not notify him, to provide evidence that the "Russian invasion" would allegedly begin on February 16.
Read 1211 tweets
Thread on why I am bullish on oil in the long run:

1- In all outlooks, the largest decrease in global oil demand comes from the massively improved efficiency in ICE vehicles. That is massively exaggerated.

2- Do the numbers! The impact of #ElectricVehicles is exaggerated!
3- The outlooks ignore the global shift in consumer taste from small cars to crossovers, SUVs, and trucks.

4- All those who are bearish on oil are looking at a static picture. The world is dynamic. If oil prices collapse, oil will be too cheap to ignore by all groups.#oil #OPEC
5- The outlooks ignore the new consumers of energy as they did in the past with Bitcoin and data centers. That creates competition for electricity, and that leads to fuel switching and private generation.
#Bitcoin #Datacenters
Read 14 tweets
What is the Status Quo of the EU gas crisis?

A short thread in charts on why we are here & where the EU gas crisis is aheading next.

Summary: EU gas security is a prayer, not a policy!

As of today, EU gas storage tanks are 72% filled. This is WELL below its 5-year averages.

Expressed in Terra Watt Hours (TWh), the EU has 809 TWh of storage as at 21 November 2021.

For perspective: In the winter 2017/18, the EU consumed 770 TWh from 1 Nov 2017 - 31 March 2018.
Gas storage couldn't go that low bc pipeline systems needs to stay under pressure.

Read 22 tweets
CAT global update: Glasgow has a credibility gap between talk and action. If all govts met their 2030 targets, we would have 2.4˚C of warming in 2100. But right now, current policies put us at 2.7˚C.
A Thread 🧵
The 2030 #emissionsgap has only closed by 15-17% in the past year. Global GHG’s in 2030 will still be twice as high as what’s needed for 1.5˚C
There’s still a massive 19-23 gigatonne gap betw 2030 targets & 1.5˚C compatibility in 2030. These are the countries impacting the gap. What’s stopping action? #natgas & #coal. Still too much coal in the pipeline, and gas is still a fossil fuel /4
Read 8 tweets
Cycle emotional considerations:

Bottom: actually the best point for maximum greed, often though the point of maximum fear (point of maximum loss)

Top: actually the best point for maximum fear, often though the point of maximum greed (the point of maximum gain)

In sink?
We had our first attack for discussing the concept that our fear gage is gaining momentum, the attack is a further contrarian indicator that we are on the correct track. Denial is a response most have to their greed thesis being questioned, 90% don't handle well this reality.
Wishing and hoping are not rational mechanisms for wealth building.

Understanding the risk one is taking at a given point of the cycle allows one to control and manage the wealth building process.

How many of you have compounded your wealth at 25% pa + over the last 10yrs?
Read 5 tweets
[THREAD]: The #EnergyCrisis and #gasprice 📈is a consequence of deliberate choices by a dominant gas supplier to Europe not to use the existing gas transmission infrastructure
Russia talks of increased gas "supplies" to Europe but not “exports”
The difference seems subtle🤔 the consequences are not 🚨
To boost “supplies,” Gazprom is emptying its EU storage facilities (stoking fears ➠ pushing up prices 📈) and hides behind "delivering on obligations"
Gazprom increased production by 18% this year, which allowed Russia to triple its exports to China and Turkey, but not Europe 🤔
#gascrisis #energycrunch
Read 4 tweets
🤔 it is possible for Russia to "increase supplies" of #natgas to Europe and create market fear 😱 that contributed to the quadrupling of prices since June?
💡 A few hints below 👇👇👇
Hint 1: gas "supplies" is a loaded word. Many automatically equate "increased supplies" with more gas exports from 🇷🇺 to 🇪🇺.
That's not the case. Gazprom is emptying its EU storage (stoking fears ➠ pushing up prices 📈) and hides behind "delivering on obligations" Image
Hint 2: the post-pandemic gas demand in Europe is on par with 2019, so that's the reference year to look at for meaningful analysis.
Any comparison to 2020, used by those who prefer not to notice Gazprom’s role in the #gascrisis, is unhelpful and misleading. #energycrisis
Read 4 tweets
EU energy ministers to discuss emergency measures: diplomat
#ONGT #natgas #EU
EU proposes tax breaks, caps to shield users from energy rally.
#ONGT #natgas #EU
EU Commission investigating "all allegations of possible anti-competitive commercial conduct" by gas suppliers.
#ONGT #natgas #EU
Read 4 tweets
China's state planner NDRC says coal supply for upcoming winter, spring is secured.
#China #coal
China to witness another batch of longer-term coal supply deals. #China #coal
China to 'resolutely' guarantee residential power, gas use: NDRC
#China #coal
Read 7 tweets
#China Jan -Sept. imports rise 22.6% y/y and Jan.-Sept. exports +22.7% y/y in yuan terms.
#trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳
China's General Customs' Jan-Sept Import Data: (YoY)
#crude oil imports fall 6.8% y/y to 387 mln tonnes;
#natgas imports rise 22. 2% y/y to 89.85 mln tonnes;
#ironore imports fall 3% y/y to 842 mln tonnes;
#copper imports 4.02 mln tonnes, down 19.5% y/y.
#OOTT #trade #import🇨🇳 🇺🇸
In the first three quarters of this year, #China's #exports reached 15.55 trillion yuan, up 22.7% y/y and #imports reached 12.78 trillion yuan, up 22.6% y/y.

Foreign trade imports and exports have achieved positive year-on-year growth for five consecutive quarters.
Read 4 tweets
⚡️Energia: O Rally Continua

As #commodities energéticas estavam sob cerco durante o auge do impacto da pandemia, em todos os mercados. Em abril de 2020, o #carvão Rotterdam caiu para uma baixa de $38,45/t. O #crudeoil foi ainda pior, com o contrato spot operando a (-)$40,2...
Os futuros do #brent caíram para o valor mais baixo desde século, a $ 16,00 por barril. Enquanto isso, o #NaturalGas despencou para ao menor nível em 25 anos, a $1,44 MMbtu. Os combustíveis fósseis foram vítimas do desaparecimento da demanda, à medida que o vírus se espalhava..
A cura para os preços baixos das #Commodities são sempre os preços baixos, à medida que os produtores reduzem a produção, os estoques diminuem e os preços aumentam. Uma mudança dramática na política de energia dos EUA em 2021, sob a gestão Biden, alimentou a ascensão dos...
Read 7 tweets
I'm a fundamental analyst and don't subscribe to technical analysis, but sometimes a chart can tell an interesting story better than words can - I've been looking at energy commodity charts while studying $panr and some observations -
#Oil is a real laggard vs. #natgas and #coal - despite being up ~55% YTD it hasn't really participated in the energy price surge to same extent as its fellow fossil fuels - here's the price lag YTD, showing oil is well behind:
Here's oil lagging over last 3 yrs chart -
Read 7 tweets
Remember the #Germany's "green" talk ab turning #Ukraine (with her #natgas network) into a "Europe #hydrogen hub"? A UA expert says it's now being framed strictly as [pseudo] compensation for UA's support of the RU #NordStream2 project.
Post in Ukrainian:…
M.Gonchar (a respected #Ukraine #energy & security expert) is also concerned that this #hydrogen payoff is seemingly being promoted by #Siemens (a GER corp notorious for violating sanctions on #Russia) & DTEK (notorious UA electricity monopoly owned by a chameleonic UA oligarch).
Read 5 tweets
1- Heavy regulations of oil & gas in favor of green energy will only result in greenwashing oil & gas. So many ways to legally greenwash any fossil fuel.

All of this lead to one result: Carbon neutrality will be the mother of all ENRONS: an unprecedented accounting fraud
2- So, what I can do to make my oil or LNG green? There are so many ways... including enriching Elon Musk and Tesla stockholders! Why? Because some corrupt politicians created laws that make it work that way. Anyway, Auto companies are now paying $Tesla to greenwash their cars!
3- People are going to go crazy when they realize what companies can claim in their carbon neutrality accounting systems! Hey, my stores have had skylights since they were built 40 years ago. I have been green all along but I just learned about it!
Read 13 tweets
Trying out a blog post as a Twitter thread. Areas covered: #NASDAQ $AMZN $SMH $NVDA $AMAT $AMD $MU $BB $CLNE $GME $CLOV $BABA $JD $DIDI $MJ $TLRY #silver $GDX $GDXJ $SIL $SILJ #oil #natgas #uranium $USO $UNG $DXY $EEM $XLF #Bitcoin
Bullishness price action in stocks prevailed once again last week and bearish sentiment grew stronger. It’s hard to separate the bearish narrative from price action, but necessary in this environment to be objective.
There is plenty to be cautious about. Markets are 12 years into a bull run and each week that passes is likely to be more volatile than the last. This isn’t a typical market and should be treated as such.
Read 22 tweets
1/ On President’s Day, we reflect on the legacy of the world’s most powerful public office. And with the recent changing of the guard in the Oval Office, many of our investors have been left wondering what the incoming Biden administration means for the #oil and #natgas industry.
2/ However, history shows that, despite the power of the Presidential office, the energy cycle often operates independently of the political cycle. Older generations might recall that the energy politics of yesteryear centered around achieving American “energy independence.”
3/ The idea was born from the 1970s #oil shock, after which President Richard Nixon proclaimed: “At the end of this decade, in the year 1980, the United States will not be dependent on any other country for the energy we need.” That was 1974, when America imported 36% of its oil.
Read 16 tweets

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