Analyst @Valens_Global. Interested in the Gulf & geopolitics. Michigander, Spartan alum, and self-professed thalassophile. Proud 🇺🇸
Dec 10, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Huge win for #Morocco in gaining US recognition of its sovereignty over W. Sahara. I doubt Rabat would have normalized for anything less. It will be interesting to see the pace of this deal's implementation. Full speed ahead, like UAE/Bahrain, or a more gradual progression?
Morocco and #Israel have strong cultural ties, a history of cooperation, and business relations. But Morocco also has vocal pro-Palestinian faction & the issue is still very emotive amongst the public. Winning W. Sahara recognition is a huge sweetener that will help sell the deal
Aug 13, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Big news from Abu Dhabi. I thought Bahrain would be the first to attempt a move like this, given its reputation as a bellwether in the Gulf. Israel-Gulf ties have continued a slow but steady pace over the past few years. UAE's statement brings ties from covert to overt.
The fact that #UAE did this without the Israel-Pal conflict being resolved underscores how some Gulf states have felt growing frustrations with the Palestinian Authority and worsening donor fatigue. bit.ly/2Fj40tL
Sep 16, 2019 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Thread on the attack at Abqaiq in #Saudi: 1) The attack fits the pattern of Iran signaling to the Gulf states that if it can't get its oil out, it will cause their oil exports to become collateral damage. Iran aims to force KSA to dial back support for the max pressure campaign
2) The timing and targeting of these latest attacks can't be divorced from the ongoing preparations for an Aramco IPO. Iran is trying to derail the IPO with these attacks. Its intent is to give interested investors pause, as they begin to price in Aramco's geopolitical risks
